Jaw-dropping historical comparisons for Royce Lewis

Lewis joined some elite company with his rookie year performance.

Ever since the Minnesota Twins were bounced from the postseason last October, fans haven't stopped dreaming about what Royce Lewis could do in 2024.

The Twins infielder broke out during the 2023 season, hitting .309/.372/.548 with 15 home runs and 52 RBIs. With a pair of home runs in Game 1 of the American League Wild Card Series against the Toronto Blue Jays, Lewis was not only instrumental in helping the Twins win the American League Central but also end their postseason losing streak.

But aside from the local impact, Lewis's rookie season had historical significance. Since the Divisional Era began in 1969, only eight other players replicated Lewis's batter's line in their rookie year. This sets a high bar to clear and some interesting parallels as Lewis heads into his second season. 

Let's compare Lewis to those eight...

Images courtesy of USA TODAY Sports

1. Bernie Carbo (Cincinnati Reds)

• 1970: .310/.454/.551, 21 HR, 63 RBI, 10 SB (365 AB)
• 1971: .219/.338/.339, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 2 SB (310 AB)

Carbo was the Reds' top pick ahead of Johnny Bench in the 1965 inaugural draft and broke out during his rookie year. While Carbo finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting in 1970, it represented the high-water mark of his career as he slashed .268/.403/.453 with 26 homers and 83 RBI over the next two seasons before being traded to St. Louis in 1972.

Carbo went on to have a 12-year career in the majors and hit a home run with the Boston Red Sox in the 1975 World Series but never reached the same success he had in his rookie year.

2. Fred Lynn (Boston Red Sox)

• 1975: .331/.401/.566, 21 HR, 105 RBI, 10 SB (528 AB)
• 1976: .314/.367/.467, 10 HR, 65 RBI, 14 SB (507 AB)

Lynn didn't just have a breakout in 1975, he exploded to lead the majors with 47 doubles and a .566 slugging percentage on the way to winning the AL Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player awards as the Red Sox reached the World Series. 

Lynn went on to become a nine-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner in center field while winning the AL triple crown by hitting .333/.423/.637 with 39 homers and 122 RBI in 1979. He played 17 years in the majors with five different teams and finished his career with a .283/.360/.484 line with 306 home runs and 1,111 RBI.

3. Mike Greenwell (Boston Red Sox)

• 1987: .328/.386/.570, 19 HR, 89 RBI, 5 SB (412 AB)
• 1988: .325/.416/.531, 22 HR, 119 RBI, 16 SB (590 AB)

Greenwell had a tough task following the legacy of Red Sox left fielders Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski and Jim Rice, but he broke out during his first two seasons. After finishing fourth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 1987, he finished runner-up to Oakland's Jose Canseco for the MVP award in 1988.

Greenwell went on to make his second All-Star appearance in 1989 but never reached the level of superstardom. He played 12 years in the majors and finished with a batter's line of .303/.368/.463 with 130 home runs and 726 RBI.

4. Albert Pujols (St. Louis Cardinals)

• 2001: .329/.403/.610, 37 HR, 130 RBI, 1 SB (590 AB)
• 2002: .314/.394/.561, 34 HR, 127 RBI, 2 SB (590 AB)

If we're looking for the high-end of what Lewis could do, matching one of the greatest players in MLB history wouldn't be a terrible outcome.

Pujols debuted as a 21-year-old and never let up, becoming a three-time MVP, 11-time All-Star, two-time Gold Glove winner, six-time Silver Slugger, 2003 NL batting champion and two-time World Series champion while hitting 703 home runs – fourth all-time behind Babe Ruth (714), Hank Aaron (755) and Barry Bonds (762).

After retiring after the 2022 season, Pujols is a lock to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

5. Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels)

• 2012: .326/.399/.564, 30 HR, 83 RBI, 49 SB (559 AB)
• 2013: .323/.432/.557, 27 HR, 97 RBI, 33 SB (589 AB)

Another high-end outcome, Trout smashed his way into the majors, winning the AL Rookie of the Year award, becoming an All-Star and Silver Slugger while finishing second to Detroit's Miguel Cabrera in MVP voting in 2012.

While the Angels haven't had team success, that hasn't been Trout's fault as he's become a three-time MVP, 11-time All-Star and nine-time Silver Slugger in 13 seasons. At age 32, there's more accolades for Trout to win as he paves his path to Cooperstown.

6. Jose Abreu (Chicago White Sox)

• 2014: .317/.383/.581, 36 HR, 107 RBI, 3 SB (556 AB)
• 2015: .290/.347/.502, 30 HR, 101 RBI (613 AB)

The oldest player on this list, Abreu signed with the White Sox after defecting from Cuba in 2013 and provided immediate dividends while winning the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2014.

Abreu has been a consistent player since then, compiling a .286/.348/.494 batter's line with 261 home runs and 953 RBI over 10 seasons. He won the American League MVP during the pandemic-shortened season in 2020 and in 2023 he finished his first season with the Houston Astros.

7. Fernando Tatis Jr. (San Diego Padres)

• 2019: .317/.379/.590, 22 HR, 53 RBI, 16 SB (334 AB)
• 2020: .277/.366/.571, 17 HR, 45 RBI, 11 SB (224 AB)

Tatis was anointed one of MLB's top young stars after debuting as a 20-year-old in 2019 and fulfilled that prophecy during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. 

Tatis was in the midst of another monster year, hitting .282/.364/.611 with 42 homers, 97 RBI and 25 stolen bases in 2021, but was slapped with a performance-enhancing drugs suspension that carried into the first half of the 2022 season.

After an injury suffered in a motorcycle accident caused him to miss the second half of the 2022 season, Tatis returned to hit .257/.322/.449 with 25 home runs, 78 RBI and 29 stolen bases for the Padres last season.

8. Yordan Álvarez (Houston Astros)

• 2019: .313/.412/.655, 27 HR, 78 RBI (313 AB)
• 2020: .250/.333/.625, 1 HR, 4 RBI (8 AB)

Twins fans are familiar with Álvarez after he almost single-handedly lifted the Astros with four home runs during the American League Divisional Series last October, but he represents another high-range outcome for Lewis.

Like Lewis, Álvarez had a strong rookie year despite playing half the season and even won the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 2019. Álvarez suffered a setback after testing positive for COVID-19 and then undergoing arthroscopic surgery on both knees during the 2020 season, but he's bounced back to hit .292/.385/.573 with 101 homers and 298 RBI over the past three seasons.

A two-time All-Star and an MVP candidate, Álvarez is one of the best hitters in baseball entering his age-27 season.

9. Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins)

• 2023: .309/.372/.548, 15 HR, 52 RBI, 6 SB (217 AB)
• 2024: ???

So now that we know the other eight players, what does this mean for Lewis's sophomore campaign?

Lewis is the second-oldest player in this group at age 24 but he is also the only former No. 1 overall pick, selected by the Twins in 2017. Each of these players either wound up having a long career or are on the path to having a long career and seven of the players wound up becoming All-Stars.

This means Twins fans should get used to seeing Lewis on the field but there are a couple of areas he'll need to work on. Lewis's 28.5% chase rate and 27.3% whiff rate were below average according to Baseball Savant and his style of play may need to be adjusted after missing time with oblique and knee injuries last season.

Still, Lewis's future is bright and he should be a crucial piece for the Twins in 2024 and many years to come.