MLB.com predicts Pablo Lopez to win 2024 AL Cy Young

Lopez had a 3.66 ERA and 234 strike outs in 194.0 innings in 2023

After finishing seventh in AL Cy Young voting in 2023, is Minnesota Twins ace Pablo Lopez geared to make the jump and win the award in 2024? If MLB.com is right, then that could be his reality next fall.

Lopez is MLB.com's early prediction to win the 2024 AL Cy Young award. 

López proved himself a true ace in his age-27 season after the trade from Miami to Minnesota. He upped his innings to a career-high 194, had an ERA+ that was 17% better than league average, improved his K/BB ratio (striking out 234 batters) and was awesome in October (one earned run in 12 2/3 innings over two starts against the Blue Jays and Astros). He might have only scratched the surface, because now that he’s added a sweeper that held opponents to a .173 average and .287 slugging percentage, he has a genuine five-pitch mix that could even improve in effectiveness as he gets more comfortable utilizing it. López has the command to do so. If he does, he’s a Cy winner waiting to happen.

Coming over from Miami in a trade last January that saw fan favorite Luis Arraez leave Minnesota, Lopez planted himself as the Twins ace for the foreseeable future with a dominant first year. The righty had a 3.66 ERA, striking out 234 batters in 194.0 innings of work. In the playoffs, Lopez stepped up even more, allowing just one run in 12.2 innings against the Blue Jays and Astros.

The Yankees' Garrett Cole is the current betting favorite to win the award with Lopez around fourth or fifth depending on which sportsbook you look at.

If Lopez were to win the Cy Young he would be the first Twins pitcher since fellow Venezuelan Johan Santana won it for the second time back in 2006. Minnesota has only had three pitchers win the award:

• Johan Santana - 2006
• Johan Santana - 2004
• Frank Viola - 1988
• Jim Perry - 1970

Last season, Twins pitcher Sonny Gray finished second in voting behind Cole for the award. Gray has since left via free agency and landed with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Oct 8, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) in the fourth inning for game two of the ALDS for the 2023 MLB playoffs against the Minnesota Twins at Minute Maid Park / Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports