How Connor Prielipp Is Running Out of Places to Attack

When you watch Minnesota Twins left-hander Connor Prielipp pitch, there's an extreme sense of confidence once you see his slider cross the plate. At times, the combination of that slider with his curveball makes us feel a little hopeful about the 25-year-old lefty. Often, left-handed pitchers with high-profile breaking pitches are not usually the reason for excitement among most prospects facing their first year in the Major Leagues.

In many cases, high-velocity fastballs dictate the conversation when it comes to drawing attention. Prielipp can touch 96 mph, but his velocity is not the weapon that stands out most among his pitches. He usually makes the difference with his stuff. He has a Stuff+ of 112 with his slider and 127 with his curveball. However, the story changes when his next pitches appear. His four-seam fastball and sinker have been in as much trouble as his changeup, which is creating a large number of difficult situations for Prielipp. He had some of them on Saturday, allowing eight runs in five innings against the Philadelphia Phillies.

There are several readings we can make from his 94 pitches, but the biggest challenge remains the way Prielipp tries to survive by exposing his best pitches. The construction of his at-bats clearly reveals where the problem is. Before Saturday night's outing at Target Field, Prielipp had allowed a .282 on-base percentage the first time he faced the opposing lineup. In his next two trips through the lineup, that average jumped to .352 and .354, respectively.

Minnesota Twins pitcher Connor Prielipp. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The problem is how Prielipp attacks the opposition. Most of the time, he starts his matchups with the fastball 50.4% of the time, mixing in his breaking pitches 39.5% of the time. When hitters are ahead in the count, he continues throwing the fastball 50.4% of the time, while giving more opportunities to the changeup at 22.7%. His strikeout weapon is the slider, and when he combines it with the curveball, he has recorded 68.1% of his 88 strikeouts.

That sequence could be much more comfortable if Prielipp were doing a better job of finishing his at-bats, but his fastball is getting hit hard in important situations. Once he falls behind in the count, hitters have adjusted to his slider. Prielipp is still making a difference, but he needs the fastball to be more effective alongside the changeup to save the at-bats in which he falls behind.

That is exactly what is not happening. Opponents continue to find his changeup, to the point that it averages 60.3% IdealAngle, the highest against any of his pitches. Against the sinker, the 82.4% O-Contact tells the whole story: even when Prielipp tries to put a pitch on the corners, hitters are still able to make contact against his sinker.

The result of the balls put in play is puzzling: a .465 xSLG against his fastballs, .520 against his changeups and .395 against his breaking pitches when hitters are ahead in the count. His swing-and-miss rate against the fastballs has been just 12.5%, and it stands out that, when Prielipp gets ahead in the count, it rises only to 14.1% with that pitch.

When you cannot finish hitters with your fastball and the changeup is getting crushed, your main pitches become much more exposed.

Prielipp had been moving through the Phillies' lineup without many problems. He had allowed just one run through the first four innings until the fifth inning arrived. The Phillies bombarded him with a seven-run rally. The outburst ended with a three-run homer by Bryson Stott, who crushed a slider middle-middle on a 1-1 count.

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Connor Prielipp (61). Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

That was the last of three deadly mistakes by Prielipp in leaving pitches middle-middle. He did it before Stott's homer against Alec Bohm, who delivered a bases-loaded RBI single with two outs. On the first pitch, another pitch almost down the middle, Edmundo Sosa hit a single to left against the curveball that drove in two runs and made it 5-0, setting the stage for Stott's home run.

Often, when a pitcher misses with a pitch and leaves it middle-middle or in an area where the hitter gets good contact, we take a little credit away from the pitcher. Throwing in the strike zone is not a sin. Many times pitchers have to go back there; that is the nature of the game. So the point here will always revolve more around the mix, and how each pitcher works to limit the opposition without going too far away from the zone.

Prielipp's pitches on Saturday against the Phillies were questionable, there is no doubt about that. But his inability is not about falling behind the opposition too often. The challenge right now is that he barely has a place in the strike zone where his pitches can be effective.

Let's look at a couple of heat maps that are quite revealing.

Opponents' BA vs. Connor Prielipp's fastballs

As you can see, there is only one place where Prielipp has been able to survive with his fastball. It is at the top of the strike zone. When he misses middle-middle, hitters destroy his fastballs at an alarming rate. He also has trouble on the corners, both inside and outside the strike zone, which makes this sample much more alarming.

This report says a lot about how hitters prepare to attack his fastball. On Saturday, the Phillies chased his fastballs only 8% of the time. When they made contact, they produced an average exit velocity of 99.2 mph.

Connor Prielipp vs offspeed — Connor Prielipp | Statcast

This second graph shows us where the opposition is getting its best exit velocities against the breaking pitches. Prielipp has relied more on his slider and curveball, but notice one detail. The best exit velocities have come against pitches located on the inner part of the zone, both against left-handed and right-handed hitters, and in the lower part.

This trend reflects part of the opponents' plan, which usually involves missing Prielipp's fastballs in the upper part of the zone. But they are prepared to let the fastball get a little deeper or be ready for breaking pitches or the changeup in the lower part of the strike zone.

In summary, Prielipp has a lot to adjust with his fastball command. He will also have to think about how to make his use of breaking pitches less predictable when he is ahead in the count. And, of course, whether his changeup will finally be able to make the big jump that is still expected of it.

Time is passing, and the Twins need Prielipp to start making adjustments so he can compete and provide durability to the starting rotation down the stretch.

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