Three keys for the Twins in the second half of the 2024 season

What do the Twins need to do to get back to the postseason this year?

Jul 8, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa (R) celebrates with third baseman Jose Miranda (L) after hitting a solo home run against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins entered the All-Star break with a 54-42 record, 4.5 games back of the Guardians in the AL Central and 2.5 games clear of the Royals for a wild-card spot. They're on a 91-win pace, led primarily by an offense that ranks fifth in MLB in OPS. As we look ahead to the second half, here are three keys for the Twins that can get them back to the postseason and perhaps even help them climb past Cleveland for a second consecutive division title.

1. Hope for good health

This is, of course, an obvious one that applies to every team in every sport. But it's particularly crucial for these Twins, who need their injury-prone stars to stay healthy in order to reach their ceiling in the second half and beyond. Willi Castro, who earned a well-deserved All-Star nod, is Minnesota's only player who appeared in all 96 games in the first half. Royce Lewis appeared in just 24, picking up a major injury in the season opener and another on July 2nd. In that limited action, he hit ten home runs with a 185 OPS+. Byron Buxton has played in 72 games so far, putting him on pace to reach 100 for the second time in his career. Carlos Correa has played in 75, but he won't participate in the All-Star game due to plantar fasciitis.

Currently on the injured list for the Twins are Lewis, fellow first-half sensation Jose Miranda, and three other hitters (Kyle Farmer, Austin Martin, Alex Kirilloff). Relievers Brock Stewart and Justin Topa are also sidelined at the moment. Realistically, the success of the Twins' second half will be determined by their ability to stay healthy and get key players like Lewis and Stewart back on the field.

2. Add to the pitching staff

While the Twins' offense has been excellent, their pitching has been somewhat mediocre. Minnesota ranks 18th in baseball with a 4.11 ERA. That mostly falls on their starting rotation, which has a 4.49 ERA compared to the bullpen's 3.51 mark. Pablo Lopez, who is supposed to be one of the aces of the Twins' staff, currently has a 5.11 ERA that ranks as the worst of his career.

Lopez is a strong candidate to bounce back in the second half and produce at a high level, considering his strong underlying metrics. Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and rookie Simeon Woods Richardson have been solid in the rotation. But the Twins could benefit from adding a proven starter before the July 30 trade deadline, largely because Chris Paddack has a 4.99 ERA in 88.1 innings. He's been hit hard and has struggled to miss bats. They could also benefit from adding another quality reliever — you can always use more of those — but the bullpen has been strong despite the injuries to Stewart and Topa.

If the Twins are serious about making a push to reach the playoffs and contend for a title, they should be looking to add at least one pitcher before the deadline.

May 8, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Chris Paddack (20) gets relieved from the game from Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli against the Seattle Mariners in the sixth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports / Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

3. Win the important games

Each of the final 66 games of the regular season will be big for the Twins as they look to reach the postseason again. Some of them will just feel a little bit bigger than others. They've got eight critical games left against the Guardians, who went 5-0 against Minnesota in the first half. Those two four-game series — one at Target Field in August, one in Cleveland in September — could go a long way in determining the AL Central champion. They've also got six games against the Royals and three against the Red Sox, who are the two teams closest to the Twins in the wild card race.

In total, 41 of Minnesota's final 66 games are against teams who are at least .500 at the break, so they'll have to earn their way into the dance. It starts on Saturday with a five-game homestand against the Brewers and Phillies in Minneapolis.