Fantasy Baseball Player Outlook: Chicago Cubs SS Javier Baez

Is Javy Baez a steal at his current Average Draft Position?

Shortstop is perhaps the most loaded position in fantasy baseball, as a result Javier Baez’s average draft position is pushed down to the late third round despite performing like a second rounder.

Cubs shortstop Javier Baez had a solid season in 2019 which included 29 home runs, 85 RBIs and eleven steals but because the MLB is top loaded with All-Star quality shortstops, Baez is often overlooked. His Average Draft Position is currently the 31st overall player and the seventh shortstop.

What type of value does Baez offer as a third round pick in fantasy baseball drafts?

Sports Illustrated’s Shawn Childs and Ben Heisler weigh in.

Read the transcript from their conversation:

Bill Enright: Shortstop is one of the most loaded positions in all of Major League Baseball when it comes to the fantasy baseball aspect of things. But that's maybe why Javier Baez is going in the late third, early fourth round. Let's talk to Sports Illustrated's fantasy baseball analyst, Shawn Childs and Ben Heisler about where to draft Baez. Shawn, I'm going to go to you first. Do you see value in his current ADP? 

Shawn Childs: There was definitely value in the early draft season, but in the high stakes market, he started to be the wise guy to play and he was pushing closer to early third round and 15 team drafts. But he's a guy that had probably a comparable season to 2018 to Trevor Story, who now gets drafted inside the first round, probably top 10 pick. But, you know, hs strikeouts a bit high, he doesn't take enough walks, but somehow he scores enough runs where it's close to 50 percent, which is pretty attractive. His powers there, he will steal bases, his average hit rate is close to where he could hit 40 home runs an his contact batting average is near .400, which would which will offset some of his strikeout rate. So he's a five category player with batting average, kind of having the mid range value where it could be go up further if he can lower his strikeout rate. But very attractive player for where he goes in drafts. 

Bill Enright: Ben, where do you see Baez finishing among the other shortstops this year? 

Ben Heisler: I think he's an elite level shortstop, and I think you can make a legitimate argument that Javy Baez is --other than maybe Mike Trout, but certainly from a flashiness level--Javier Baez is the most entertaining player in all of Major League Baseball. He's an exceptional fielder. He can drive the ball. He's got great speed on the bases as well. He's just not going to walk. And I think anybody that tries to assume that Javier Baez is going to up his walk rate hasn't watched him over the last three years. But Shawn talked about, you know, he can be a 35 to 40 homerun guy. Can drive in a bunch of runs, especially if the top of the lineup. And Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo and we'll see who ends up being the leadoff hitter. My guess is it will likely be a combination of Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber. But I think Javier Baez absolutely, at the ADP right now of about 40. It doesn't make sense just because of how he can do everything really well. And in a short sample size, with the season likely being 60 or 70 games, he could get hot for a long time. And really carry a fantasy owner's team to victory. 

Bill Enright: Ben and Shawn, thank you guys for your insight. We have more fantasy baseball player analysis. You can check it out by going to SI.com/fantasy. 

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