Walker Buehler’s Return Emblematic of Messy Recoveries From Tommy John Surgery

The Dodgers’ former ace still hasn’t found his peak form two years after he underwent the infamous elbow procedure, and he’s far from alone.

Buehler allowed three hits and four walks in 3 1/3 innings against the Brewers on Wednesday in his first start since June. / Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to peaking for the playoffs, the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers are among many teams who put their faith in modern medicine. Tommy John surgery has become so commonplace that the danger is assuming when guys return, they’re as good as new.

How many times have you heard, when so-and-so gets back it’s like adding an impact pitcher in a trade. In reality, every UCL tear, every surgery and every pitcher are a little different.

The Dodgers thought by now that Walker Buehler (24 months after surgery) would be rounding into playoff form (or Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin; also not happening). The Giants thought Robbie Ray (15 months after surgery) would help lead a second-half surge. The Rangers counted on Tyler Mahle (15 months) and Jacob deGrom (14 months) to propel the team down the stretch.

None of that is happening. The Dodgers have no clue what their postseason rotation will look like. The Giants are still under .500 and are 25–36 against winning teams. The Rangers virtually played themselves out of contention while waiting for reinforcements to arrive.

The surgery may have become more common—even too common—but the way back from it still is marked by setbacks and extra time. No matter how many times a pitcher looks great in bullpens and sim games (which is pretty much all you ever hear), getting back on the mound in a game with consequences and outside scrutiny is something else entirely.

On Wednesday, both Buehler (3 1/3 innings) and Ray (2/3 of an inning) stumbled through abbreviated starts in losses for their teams. Here is a look at how Buehler and Ray, two key potential playoff starters, have looked overall in their returns, as well as other key starting pitchers facing the same comebacks. In all cases, small sample size caveats apply, but they represent how returning to form takes longer than returning to the mound.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers (5.58 ERA in 9 starts)

His three-part delivery relies on timing and body speed more than the deliveries of most pitchers. Buehler still hasn’t been consistently comfortable with his delivery. That has created command issues. There is a wider than normal spray distribution to his pitches.

It’s about more than command, though. Buehler’s pitches just don’t have the same crispness. Lefthanded hitters are slugging .612 against him, including .667 against his fastball. One of the best pitchers in the game at putting hitters away over the past six years is having massive trouble finishing them off:

Batters vs. Buehler With Two Strikes	BA	OBP	SLG
2018–23	.145	.209	.227
2024	.247	.340	.482

It’s not a matter of velocity. More telling, the spin rates are down considerably on his four-seamer (-193), cutter (-170), sinker (-192), knuckle curveball (-269) and slider (-98).

Robbie Ray (6.00 ERA in 5 starts)

The swing and miss stuff is still there (32.6%, close to his career high) but Ray has allowed too many free baserunners (16 walks and hit batters in 21 innings) and his small-sample flyball rate (career high 40%) has led to a higher home run rate (6.5%).

The difficulty in measuring Ray is that he has tweaked—and sometimes overhauled—his mechanics throughout his career. He has gone through a short-arm phase, for instance, and then ditched it. When he won the Cy Young Award in 2021, he stood with his shoulders square to the plate before stepping into the rubber. This year he stands sideways before starting his windup.

But the biggest change this year for Ray is that he is throwing with his least amount of extension since 2019. Ray’s four-seam velocity is down half a tick from where it was in '21. But when you include his loss of extension, his fastball to a hitter looks like it is down 0.7 mph.

Here are the release points of two Ray fastballs three years apart.

Notice in his Cy Young season his release point is lower by slightly more than four inches. Part of that is pure arm angle. You see how this year his arm is straighter. The higher release point forces the head and torso to lean right to allow the shoulder and arm to work through the higher slot. There is a greater tilt in the shoulders.

Moreover, the higher slot also is due to less extension. Ray is not getting down the mound as far as he did in 2021, which results in being slightly more upright.

All of these slight differences show up in the metrics: less extension with a higher release and a greater drop in perceived velocity than actual velocity.

Ray’s Four-Seam Fastball	Velocity (mph)	Perceived Velocity (mph)	Extension (feet)	Vertical Release (feet)
Aug. 2021	93.9	93.8	6.5	6.04
Aug. 2024	93.4	93.1	6.1	6.39

Giants manager Bob Melvin had to pull Ray on Wednesday after he’d thrown 39 pitches and still wasn’t out of the first inning. “Coming off a long time off,” Melvin told reporters, “you’re going to have some tough ones.”

Shane Baz, Rays (4.21 ERA in 7 starts)

Twenty-three months after Tommy John surgery, his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up. He is throwing his fastball more but the way it’s been barreled up indicates a command issue. Batters are hitting .375 and slugging .562 off his heater but .177 and .266 off his secondary pitches.

Jacob deGrom, Rangers (has not pitched)

After throwing 40 pitches of live batting practice Sunday in which he touched 99 mph, deGrom looks ready to make one or two minor league rehab starts. That would put him on schedule to start around Aug. 28—14 1/2 months after his Tommy John surgery.

Luis Garcia, Astros (has not pitched)

Garcia has been shut down from his rehab work twice because of soreness in his elbow, which was repaired 15 months ago. With no timetable yet to resume throwing, Garcia may be running out of time to build up enough arm strength to start.

Mahle has been one of this season’s rare success stories in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, albeit in a small sample size. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Tyler Mahle, Rangers (2.79 ERA in 2 starts)

The fastball is down a tick in velocity (93.2 to 92.1) but it retains excellent movement properties. He has thrown just five innings and 4 2/3 innings in his two starts.

Max Meyer, Marlins (5.20 ERA in 7 starts)

Meyer underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2022. After missing last season, he has been on strict innings limits imposed by Miami this year. Across the majors and minors, Meyer has thrown 94 1/3 innings in 22 starts, an average of 4 1/3 innings per start. His fastball is down half a tick. At 25 years old, he has never thrown more than 92 pitches in a pro game.

Jeffrey Springs, Rays (4.61 ERA in 3 starts)

Fifteen months after Tommy John surgery, Springs threw a no-walk, eight-strikeout gem Sunday. His velocity (90.3) still isn’t back to where it was last year (91.7) but his changeup looks nasty.