Know Your Enemy: Twinkies

For the last time this regular season — and now, it's a battle for first

Full disclosure: I once rooted for this enemy — not as the Twins, mind you, but in their ancestral form as the Washington Senators. I went to first grade in the Washington burbs, and my first major-league game was the Washington Senators and Philadelphia A's. My heroes were Walking Man Eddie Yost, the ageless Mickey Vernon, and, of course, Nelson Cruz.

Oh, OK, Cruz wasn't really playing for the Twins franchise in 1952, it just seems that way. Easy to know that — harder to realize that he has only been with the Twins since last year.

Also hard to realize that Cruz hasn't always been a White Sox killer. His career average against the Sox is only .268, 10 points below his overall average. Since moving to Minnesota, though, wow. Last year, he had eight homers, 24 RBIs, and .433 average over 16 games. This year it's 3-10-.478 in six games.

Nelson Cruz at his night job

Nelson Cruz at his day job

That would indicate that Ricky Renteria's best managing move in the upcoming series won't be pitching changes or lineup alterations, but simply holding up four fingers every time Cruz strolls from the on-deck circle to the batter's box. As Ozzie Guillén asked, "Why does anyone ever pitch to Nelson Cruz?"

Don't be too proud to wave those fingers, Ricky. Remember what goeth before a fall.

Speaking of Ozzie, it's a long time since he referred to the Twins as piranhas because they were so good at nibbling you to death, often out-Ozzieballing the Ozzieballers. Last year, with their record-setting longballing, the Twins were more orcas. This year, they lack last year's power (except for Cruz, of course) and are more like stingrays — mostly flat, but able to unleash a lethal venom.

Still not to be toyed with

It's not like the power is all gone. Through Saturday, the Twins had 70 homers, second in the AL only to the, ahem, White Sox, who have 77. But Minnesota is below average in the offensive statistic that really counts, with 4.57 runs per game, 18th in the majors and well below Chicago's 5.51.

Of course, that 4.57 is only as high as it is because against the Sox they've scored 43 runs in six games, for a 7.17 clip. That's why they've won four of the six games, and could have had five out of six were it not for a hole in Max Kepler's glove.

And it's not like Cruz is the only hitter. Josh Donaldson's return after missing all of August has helped, Miguel Sanó (curiously, out of the lineup on Monday) has 11 HRs and Eddie Rosario (also out Monday, say what?) has 10 and 32 RBIs. But if the Twins aren't Cruzing, they're in for a bruising.

Speaking of bruising, the Twins have a much tougher sounding manager's name

So why are the Twins only a game behind the Sox going into this big series? It's more pitching than anything. They haven't had nearly the run spread the Sox have, but the pitchers are hanging tough, with a 3.64 ERA, just below Chicago's 3.57, and the FIPs are almost identical, 3.91 and 3.89.

It's not a strength of schedule differential, for sure. Teamrankings.com has  the Twins and Sox tied for the softest schedules in the majors. (Stoney and Jason have many times called the AL Central the best division in baseball, which is complete nonsense since you only play one other division this year. The real case is that the NL Central is terrible, with the pathetic Pirates, the grossly underachieving Reds, the coronavirus-ridden Cardinals and the Lorenzo Cain-less and might as well be Christian Yelich-less Brewers.)

Minnesota and Chicago have gotten where they are by very different paths. The White Sox have pummeled the awful teams, going 21-3 against the Royals, Tigers and Pirates, while the Twins have only broken even against KC and Detroit, which is hard to do. The Twins, though, have fared much better against the rest of their opponents than Chicago's 9-13, including a sweep of Cleveland this past weekend.

Pitching matchups

Monday:   José Berríos vs. Dylan Cease
Berríos has faced the Sox twice, pitching poorly in a winning effort on Opening Day and tossing six innings of one-run ball September 2. It isn't his best season, with an ERA of 4.40, and he gave up three runs in five innings to the Cardinals last time out.

Cease has an impressive 3.33 ERA but unimpressive 5.97 FIP, a differential which supports the eyeball test that he's getting hit really hard and has had inordinate good fortune. His 5-2 record has been built on weak-hitting teams.

Tuesday:  Randy Dobnak Vs. Dane Dunning
Dobnak is 6-3 with a 3.61 ERA, but he got hammered by the Cardinals last time out. Dobnak, who doesn't strike out many (23 in 42 innings), went four innings of one-run ball against the Sox in the season-opening series.

Dunning has looked mostly very good in his four starts, including six shutout innings last time out to get his first major-league win. However, his starts have all been against the trio of awfulness, and the Twins may be another matter altogether.

Wednesday:  Undecided vs. Lucas Giolito
If you had to pitch against Lucas Giolito, you'd be Undecided, too. The indecision may be to line up for the postseason, or, more probably, in order to not throw Rich Hill or any other lefty.

Lucas, 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA, was more Lucas Cranach the Elder than Lucas Giolito on opening day against the Twins, riding jitters to a best-forgotten outing, and took 94 pitches to last five innings on August 31, giving up four runs, but just two earned, and striking out eight.

Thursday:  Kenta Maeda vs. Undecided
Maeda has been Minnesota's best starter this year, by far. He's 5-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 63 K's and only 10 walks in 55 ⅔ innings. He beat the Sox with five innings of two-run ball in the opening series, and we escaped him the next time around. He shut out Cleveland for seven innings on Friday for a 74 game score.

It seems odd Undecided would be able to switch teams between a night game and an afternoon one, but it's a strange year. Maybe Thursday it's To Be Announced and Thursday it's To Be Determined. In this case, Undecided's first name may be Dallas, depending on health and how the Sox want to maneuver setting up the rotation for the playoffs.

Speaking of playoffs, 538's computer analysis has the Sox with a higher chance than the Twins to win the division, 46%-40%, but gives the Twins twice as much chance to win the World Series, 8%-4%. Go figure.

Big series, great weather expected, should be fun, get down to the old ballpark. Oh, yeah ... I forgot.