The role of Michael Kopech in 2020
Baseball is Back
Baseball is officially back starting July 23-24, and the White Sox have some questions to answer about roster and player roles during the shortened 2020 season.
One of the biggest will focus on Michael Kopech's role. [Since this article was written, Michael Kopech has been excused from team activities for an unknown reason; Rick Hahn says Kopech is healthy.]
2020 alternate dimension
Let's travel back in time to the end of March, and into a different dimension in which COVID-19 didn't exist. As the White Sox approached Opening Day, the overwhelmingly likely scenario was Kopech being sent down to Triple-A to begin 2020.
Kopech had Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in September 2018. Even though he was 18 months removed from the surgery in March — more than enough time to make a full recovery — Kopech was and is still a prospect in need of polish and development. The Sox surely wanted him to get used to the competition and adrenaline of pitching against professional hitters in a lower-stress environment. They likely would've called him up sometime around the beginning of June if Kopech was dominating Triple-a, which is never a guarantee for pitchers coming off of Tommy John surgery.
Back to the Future, 2018
Kopech's track record against big-league hitters included four starts, and 14 ⅓ innings in 2018. In those 14 ⅓ innings, Kopech threw 256 pitches, which averages out to 18.15 pitches per inning.
As Kopech was developing in Triple-A in 2018, Rick Hahn and the White Sox front office repeatedly stated that they wanted Kopech to develop a reliable changeup to keep hitters off-balance and honest. Kopech has an elite fastball, with elite spin rate and carry. He has a very good slider to go with that fastball as well, but he needs a third and possibly a fourth pitch to truly reach his ceiling. In his four starts in 2018 Kopech only threw his changeup 9.8% of the time. He threw his slider 16.8%, and his curveball (which is also a work in progress) 10.9%. That means Kopech was relying on his fastball 62.5%of the time.
The White Sox probably want to see an uptick in the amount of off-speed pitches Kopech throws, and his low percentage of changeups could signify a lack of confidence in that pitch. If Kopech mixes up his pitches more, the pitch counts will likely drop and his dominance will rise.
Earth 616
Now back to Earth 616. The season starts in just over three weeks, with a short summer camp to prepare. The Sox have to decide the best way to deploy Kopech, not only for his development, but for the success of a team trying to compete in a very short season. There are basically three options.
Option 1: late-inning bullpen role
In this scenario, the Sox deploy Kopech along the lines of how they used Mark Buehrle and Chris Sale early in their careers. The Sox can deploy Kopech in some type of late-inning role, and leave him there the entire season if he's successful. The Sox are already short on power arms in the back end of the bullpen, and Kopech could dominate with just his fastball and slider if he's only facing a lineup one time through. In 2021, Kopech would have a chance to reclaim a spot in the rotation.
Option 2: six-man rotation
The Sox are entering the last phase of the rebuild. The last few years, injuries have completely ravaged the organization, and pushed back its window of contention. Most of the injured players players have now recovered, leaving a lot of capable arms to evaluate, whether that be for a spot on the Sox going forward, or as a trade chip. A rotation of Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Gio González, Reynaldo López, Dylan Cease, and Kopech, with Carlos Rodón, Dane Dunning, Jonathan Stiever, Jimmy Lambert, Bernardo Flores Jr., and even newly-drafted Garrett Crochet waiting in the wings is possible. Obviously, not everyone on this list will start for the Sox this year, but it's good to have the depth in case of injury or underperformance, and the Sox really need to evaluate what they've got with these arms. And a six-man rotation could keep all the starters fresh.
Option 3: bullpen to rotation
Kopech could start in the bullpen in a longer relief role, and stretch out with the goal of becoming a starter as the season goes along. If Kopech shows he's up to the task of throwing strikes with a three-pitch mix, and looks strong repeating his motion in a long relief role, the Sox could push him into the rotation relatively quickly. It's always possible that one of the other five starters could get hurt, or underperform, opening up an opportunity for Kopech to slide into the starting five.
It's been an odd year so far, and an argument could be made for any of the three options above. But imagine a world where the White Sox are the first team that deploys a six-man rotation consistently. They find a competitive advantage by keeping their starting pitchers healthy from the extra day of rest. The starters can go deeper into games, and the bullpen is less taxed. The arms stay fresh and strong. They win because of it, and become the model of success for pitching in the league for years to come.
We really could end up living in an alternate dimension, after all.
My name is Scott Reichard, aka Guitarsox. I hail from the south suburbs of Chicago, and I've been a die hard White Sox fan my entire life. My two loves growing up were music, especially guitar, and the White Sox, hence the name Guitarsox. I teach and perform music, and I write about my favorite sport. What could be better?