Hot Stove Takes: Yankees, Cody Bellinger Are an Obvious Offseason Match

New York hardly had to give anything to the Cubs to acquire a former MVP who fills several roster gaps in the Bronx.

Bellinger slashed .286/.340/.475 with 44 home runs and 29 stolen bases in his two seasons with the Cubs. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

This piece is part of our Hot Stove Takes series, where staff members give quick reactions to the latest notable MLB transactions. Below are our thoughts on the Chicago Cubs trading Cody Bellinger to the New York Yankees for right-handed pitcher Cody Poteet

Tom Verducci: The Yankees’ Plan B after missing out on Juan Soto just got even better. By stealing Cody Bellinger in a salary dump from the Cubs, New York solved its two biggest needs with one player: a center fielder who allows Aaron Judge to move out of that demanding spot and a left-handed power bat to complement Judge’s right-handed thunder.

The Yankees have moved on from Soto, in a lost bidding war they never were going to win, by adding All-Stars Max Fried, Devin Williams and Bellinger—at the talent cost of a free-agent-to-be with a forearm issue (Nestor Cortes), a 5'6" second baseman with no power (Caleb Durbin) and a 30-year-old righthander with 24 career games in the big leagues (Cody Poteet). The Yankees can now sign Alex Bregman to play third base or Christian Walker to play first and consider it mission accomplished.

Judge is the big winner here by no longer having to play center, which will reduce wear and tear for a 282-pound guy who turns 33 in April, and he gets a left-handed complementary bat to keep opposing managers honest when it comes to matchups.

But there is one lingering question to the Bellinger addition: can he be an impact bat worthy of slotting next to Judge in the lineup? The all-world Bellinger from 2019 (.625 SLG) is gone and not coming back. In the large sample size since then, which included shoulder surgery after the 2020 season, Bellinger is an average big league hitter (OPS+ of 100) with a below-average on-base percentage (.306).

The scary trend with Bellinger is that he simply doesn’t hit the ball hard anymore. His average exit velocity the past two seasons has been 87.8 mph, which ranks 200th out of 255 players (min. 2,500 pitches). His career EV was 90.1 mph until then.

Once known anecdotally for ferocious bat speed, he fell in the 13th percentile for bat speed in 2024, when he also had a career low 23rd percentile in chase rate. His defensive metrics also have declined.

On the plus side, Bellinger has cut down on his swing with two strikes and become a better breaking ball hitter (.260 BA the past two seasons; .217 before). His weak home numbers last year (.247/.300/.399 slash line) were influenced by a season in which weather made Wrigley Field play especially large. And with his athleticism and profile as a true center fielder, Bellinger helps the Yankees accomplish their main overarching goal for 2025: play cleaner, faster baseball.

No doubt the Yankees have much work to do if they expect Bellinger to be an All-Star, a level he has not reached since 2019. His floor should at least be that of an average player, a level Alex Verdugo could not reach (OPS+: 83). With the Cubs kicking in $5 million of the $52.5 million owed Bellinger the next two seasons, he is worth the low risk over a short term.

Bellinger largely split time between center field and right field for the Cubs last season. / John Jones-Imagn Images

Stephanie Apstein: I like this move for the Yankees. Bellinger is slightly overpaid at $27.5 million next season with a $25 player option for 2026, which is why the Cubs are unloading him, but he's an excellent first baseman and a good center fielder—both of which the Yankees need. (Ben Rice hit .171 in his 50-game debut last year; Judge is really better suited to right.) And at the plate, Bellinger seems to have moved beyond his dreadful '21 and bad '22, which combined got him non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

He's unlikely to be the 8.6-win player who won the National League Most Valuable Player award in '19, and his exit velocity (better than only 22% of other hitters) is concerning, but if he's basically a league-average hitter for the Yankees, he makes them better. 

Nick Selbe: Going into the offseason, I thought there was at least some chance Bellinger would opt out of the three-year, $80 million deal he signed with the Cubs last winter. His 2024 production slipped from his bounce-back '23 campaign, but not by an egregious amount. He posted a .266/.325/.426 slash line with a 109 wRC+, good for 2.2 fWAR (compared to a 136 wRC+ and 4.4 fWAR in '23). Combine that with at least average center field defense, and that seems like an in-demand player.

The market, evidently, disagrees. That the Cubs only received a 30-year-old bullpen filler (no disrespect to Cody Poteet) just for the opportunity to get Bellinger's contract off the books indicates that teams view his arrow pointing firmly down. On the surface, it's not difficult to see why—Bellinger has battled some severe injuries throughout his career and hit .193 from 2021–22 before getting non-tendered by the Dodgers. His '23 campaign made it seem like his MVP ways weren’t too far off, though '24 was a significant step back, and the below-the-hood numbers weren't encouraging. His average exit velocity dipped to a career-low 87.8 mph, and his xwOBA (.301) was below league average.

Still, his acquisition solves a lot of issues for the Yankees. They needed to ease Judge's burden and move him out of center field, and even with a listed height and weight three inches shorter and 80 pounds lighter than his predecessor, Bellinger will satisfy the franchise's apparent preference of playing power forward-sized people at that position. Bellinger can also cover another roster hole at first base, and his pull-side, high-loft approach should play quite nicely at Yankee Stadium.

When the Cubs landed Kyle Tucker, it all but assured that Bellinger would be the next star to be dealt. That the move ended up being a salary dump is the surprising element to me. The leftover Juan Soto money must have been burning a hole in Brian Cashman's pockets, though there were worse places to spend it on than Bellinger.

Ryan Phillips: The Yankees added to their outfield in this deal but didn't come close to replacing Soto. Bellinger followed up his career-saving bounce-back campaign in 2023 with an unspectacular ’24 season, slashing .266/.325/.426 with 18 home runs and 78 RBIs. He's a versatile defender who is reportedly ticketed for center field in the Bronx and has some upside potential if the Yankees can unlock something. 

Bellinger, a lefty pull hitter, will likely increase his home run numbers at Yankee Stadium, but we shouldn't expect a major career resurgence. He's a useful player and the Yankees didn’t have to give up much to get him, though they do have to pay him nearly $50 million over the next two seasons (unless he plays well enough next year to opt out of the last year of his contract).

For the Cubs, this trade is all about regret. They got suckered in by Bellinger's 4.4 WAR season in 2023 and thought he'd turned everything around. They gave him a three-year contract worth $80 million in February, and this trade is an admission they wish they hadn’t. Chicago had to attach $5 million to the trade and only got a seldom-used 30-year-old pitcher in return. 

It's a pure salary dump for Chicago as the franchise attempts to realign things with Tucker now in the fold.