ALDS Preview: Three Keys to Watch in the Yankees-Royals Series

Aaron Judge has struggled to carry his regular season success into October but has a golden opportunity to do so against Kansas City.

The ALDS featuring New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (No. 99) and Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt (No. 7) begins Saturday. / Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

For the first time in over 40 years, the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals will meet in the postseason. This classic—and bitter—1970s and 1980s rivalry gets a 2020s twist, as two of the better pitching staffs and two of the best players—American League MVP candidates Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr.—in all of baseball go head-to-head in the American League Division Series that begins Saturday.

Here are the three keys to the Yankees-Royals matchup.

1. Will Aaron Judge Change the Narrative Surrounding His Postseason Woes?

Judge, the presumptive AL MVP who in 2024 authored arguably the best power-hitting season MLB has seen since the days of Barry Bonds, has the ability to turn this series on its head.

But, for whatever reason, Judge's regular season successes haven't translated to October omnipotence. In his regular season career, Judge has posted an incredible 1.010 OPS. In his postseason career? Just a .772 OPS.

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Now, to be fair, Judge has had his moments in October. He belted four home runs in the 2017 playoffs as a rookie, including three in the seven-game American League Championship Series loss to the Houston Astros. But Judge's ability to carry his regular season success into the postseason just hasn't been there.

Consider 2022, when he broke the AL single-season home run record. Judge proceeded to go 5-for-36 with two home runs in the Yankees' nine postseason games played that year.

Perhaps having Juan Soto, who, despite being seven years younger than Judge, has won a World Series and excelled on the game's biggest stage, hitting in front of him will ease the pressure on Judge. Should Judge, who finished the regular season strong, continue to swing a hot bat against the Royals, the series could shift heavily in New York's favor.

2. Can the Royals Bullpen Keep This Up?

Kansas City, led by New York Mets castoff Seth Lugo and strikeout artist Cole Ragans, featured one of the best starting rotations in MLB in 2024. The club's starters ranked second in all of MLB in ERA.

Ragans is among the arms in Kansas City's dugout that will need to be sharp for the Royals to contend in the series. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

But the bullpen, which ranked just 20th in ERA in the regular season, was the Royals' weak underbelly. Somewhat surprisingly, that was not the case in the wild-card series against the Baltimore Orioles.

In fact, the bullpen was a strength for the Royals. In Kansas City's 1–0 win in Game 1 of the wild-card series on Tuesday, relievers Sam Long, Kris Bubic and Lucas Erceg navigated the final three innings of the contest to preserve the narrow lead, allowing just three baserunners in the process.

Game 2 was arguably even more impressive. After just 4 1/3 innings pitched, Lugo, who worked himself into a fifth-inning jam, was pulled. Reliever Angel Zerpa worked a scoreless inning, striking out a pair of batters. John Schreiber, Long, Bubic and Erceg then shut the door on the Orioles, combining to strike out four while allowing just a total of one walk and one hit, once again preserving a one-run lead. The Royals' pen was simply lights out.

And it may need to be against the Yankees.

Lugo and Ragans blew past their respective career-highs in innings in the regular season. Game 1 starter Michael Wacha hadn't pitched as many innings as he did in 2024, 166 2/3, since the '17 season. Brady Singer, who may be called upon to start later in the series, also threw a career-high in innings in '24.

If the Royals' starters run out of gas in the Division Series, the relievers will need to put out the fires against the Yankees' mighty lineup. If they can repeat their wild-card series performance, that would go a long way toward helping Kansas City defeat New York.

3. Can the Yankees Control the Royals' Speed on the Bases?

The Royals, led by shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., third baseman Maikel Garcia, and outfielder Dairon Blanco, stole the 10th-most bases in MLB this season. In the Statcast metric Caught Stealing Above Average, Yankees catcher Jose Trevino was rated as below-average and fellow backstop Austin Wells merely league average.

In the outfield, Alex Verdugo and Judge have above-average arms, as does Juan Soto, though he can be tested.

In short, it's possible to run on this Yankees team. And so many of these postseason games can come down to the little things, a stolen base here, going from first to third on a single there.

It would not be surprising to see the Royals look to be aggressive on the bases against the Yankees. How well New York responds to such a chess move could ultimately determine the victor of the series.

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