Is Yankees' Austin Wells The Favorite For AL Rookie of the Year?

New York Yankees catcher Austin Wells is gaining momentum for the AL Rookie of the Year Award.

Sep 9, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees catcher Austin Wells (28) reacts as he rounds the bases after hitting a three run home run against the Kansas City Royals during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

There appears to be a new frontrunner for AL Rookie of the Year, and he wears pinstripes.

On Tuesday, MLB Network shared a side-by-side comparison of New York Yankees catcher Austin Wells and Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser, who had been considered the favorite to win the award for most of the season. While Cowser has seven more home runs and 13 more RBIs than Wells over 37 additional games, a closer look at the numbers may tilt the argument in Wells' favor. 

The AL Rookie of the Year race is heating up 👀🔥 pic.twitter.com/WeLx33mQIo

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) September 10, 2024

The conversation gained momentum after the 25-year-old backstop delivered a standout performance on Monday night. With the Yankees trailing 4-3 heading into the seventh inning of a crucial game against the Kansas City Royals, Wells ignited a seven-run surge that swung the game in New York’s favor. After Aaron Judge tied the game with an RBI single, Wells launched a go-ahead three-run homer. An inning later, he added a two-out RBI double to cap the Yankees’ 10-4 victory, going 2-for-5 with four RBIs. 

However, Wells' Rookie of the Year case is built on more than just one great night. When asked about his catcher after the game, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters that Wells has far exceeded his expectations, overcoming early-season struggles and splitting playing time before solidifying himself as the team's cleanup hitter behind Judge.

“This is a guy that was drafted because he was a really good hitter. Ironically, it was the defense that came first [for Wells] at this level, in my view,” Boone said. “He’s been a middle-of-the-order hitter for 2-3 months now. We’ve all seen that, witnessed that.” 

Before he moved on to other players, @M_Marakovits led off Aaron Boone's media session postgame Monday by asking about Austin Wells' strong season. #YANKSonYES pic.twitter.com/1qCzzhWvI2

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) September 10, 2024

In 100 games this season, Wells has slashed .252/.342/.438 with 13 home runs, 16 doubles, one triple, and 49 RBIs. His 30 extra-base hits are the fourth-most by a Yankees' rookie catcher all-time, according to YES Network. Improved plate discipline has fueled his post-All-Star break surge, during which he has slashed an impressive .295/.380/.511 with a .891 OPS over 39 games.

But Wells' success isn’t limited to his offensive output. Statistically, Wells has been one of the best defensive catchers in the game. According to Baseball Savant, Wells ranks third in MLB in fielding run value, a Statcast metric that consolidates various defensive statistics into a single run-based measure. Wells’ pitch-framing is elite, ranking in the 96th percentile, while his blocking impressively ranks in the 73rd percentile. 

Cowser is also a strong defender, ranking ninth among outfielders in Outs Above Average this season. His hot start to the year made him the early favorite for the award, as he batted .303 with a 1.004 OPS through March and April. However, he hit .185 in 157 at-bats between May and June. Since the All-Star break, Cowser has been solid, hitting .272 with a .808 OPS, eight home runs and 28 RBIs over his last 49 games. While Cowser still leads AL rookies in home runs and runs scored, Wells has surpassed him in key metrics like wRC+, WAR, OBP, and SLG. 

After closing the gap in the the award race, the Yankees hope Wells’ contributions help propel them in the standings as well. Monday’s victory, paired with an Orioles loss, gave the Yankees a 1.5-game lead in the division.

Catchers with Wells’ combination of offensive and defensive skills are rare in today’s game, and the fact that he is putting up these numbers as a rookie bodes well for the Yankees in both the near and distant future. Batting cleanup behind two MVP candidates in a postseason race is a challenge for any rookie, but Wells appears to be thriving under the spotlight. 

“It’s a lot of fun getting to watch two of the best in the game go to work right in front of me,” Wells told reporters of hitting behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. “I usually get to see a lot of pitches before I go up there, so it’s a lot of fun, and it’s a good challenge for me.”