Inside The Pinstripes

What Does James Paxton's Injury Mean For The Yankees Starting Rotation?

James Paxton will miss the next three-to-four months after having surgery on his lower back.

Max Goodman

Leading up to Wednesday afternoon, Yankees fans had every reason to be confident about the 2020 season.

This offseason, the club addressed its biggest weakness by reeling in free-agent Gerrit Cole to be its new ace. The Yankees also secured leadership in the clubhouse after CC Sabathia's retirement by re-signing their longest tenured player, Brett Gardner. 

New York even watched as some of their rivals took huge steps backward this winter. The Houston Astros were forced to replace their manager and general manager after their controversial sign-stealing scandal and the Boston Red Sox traded away their franchise player Mookie Betts Tuesday night.

READ: The Boston Red Sox trading Mookie Betts is a bad look for baseball 

Breaking news of an injury to James Paxton—surgery that will sideline the lefthander for at least three months—was a reality check, a reminder that the road to October can get bumpy along the way.

The Yankees announced Paxton underwent a microscopic lumbar discectomy Wednesday morning to remove a peridiscal cyst. The lower back injury will sideline the southpaw until May, at the earliest.

Paxton, 31, has battled injuries each season over the course of his seven-year career. In 2019, he was one of 30 New York Yankees to appear on the injured list—a new single-season record.

Beyond his injury history, however, Paxton proved last season that he belongs among the top starting pitchers in the Yankees' rotation. 

The lefty was dominant in the second half of the season, winning 10 straight decisions stretching from his first start in August until close to the end of the regular season. He finished the season with the best ERA (3.82) and most strikeouts (186) among all Yankees starters, setting a personal career high for games started (29).

His campaign culminated with a signature moment in Game 5 of the ALCS against the Astros. After 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball, skipper Aaron Boone sauntered out to the mound, evidently ready to take the lanky lefthander out of the game with the tying run on deck. 

Paxton told his skipper he was good to go and the crowd at Yankee Stadium erupted as Boone retraced his steps to the first-base dugout. All he needed was one more pitch to get out of the jam—a fly ball to the warning track in left field. New York went on to win the game, keeping its season alive for one more game.

Losing Paxton for the first few months of the regular season is a huge blow for New York.

Sure, Gerrit Cole at the top of the rotation is a major improvement from last year, and after pitching just 12 innings in 2019 due to injuries, righthander Luis Severino is poised for a major comeback in 2020. But Paxton's experience and momentum from his performance at the end of last season was set to be a crucial component in the Yankees' success on the mound moving forward.

With Paxton out, general manager Brian Cashman told reporters the No. 5 rotation spot will be decided in an "open competition," choosing between a handful of internal assets. For now, the top four rotation spots will, in order, be: Cole, Severino, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ, who originally was set to be the No. 5 starter.

That means the stakes are high for several young hurlers at Spring Training. New York could pick Jordan Montgomery—the lefthander returning from Tommy John surgery who made 29 starts as a rookie in 2017—or top prospect Deivi García.

It's worth noting, however, that Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman are the only lefties remaining on the 40-man roster should Happ and Montgomery both be used in the starting rotation. That could influence New York to call up one of its Spring Training non-roster invitees to the big-league club, or to look externally for additional veteran southpaws later on.

Paxton is the third regular starter from last season who will not be on the Opening Day roster, following Sabathia's retirement and Domingo Germán's suspension for violating the league's domestic violence policy. Germán, a 27-year-old righthander, led the team with 18 wins last season before he was placed on leave for domestic violence in mid-September. He won't be eligible to return to the field until June 5.

Bottom line, the pressure is on for those remaining in the starting staff. Not only do they need to pick up the slack during Paxton's absence, but they need to stay on the field. The Yankees announced a number of changes to their player health and performance staff last month in response to their record injury count last season. But if the injury bug persists in 2020, the current favorites in the American League could have a much more difficult time winning their first World Series since 2009.

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For more from Max Goodman, follow him on Twitter @MaxTGoodman. Follow ITP on Twitter @SI_Yankees and Facebook @SIYankees

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Max Goodman
MAX GOODMAN

Max Goodman covers the New York Yankees for Sports Illustrated and FanNation. Goodman has been on the Yankees beat for three seasons. He is also the publisher of Sports Illustrated and FanNation's Jets site, Jets Country. Before starting Inside The Pinstripes, Goodman attended Northwestern University and the Medill School of Journalism. He earned his Bachelor’s Degree in Broadcast Journalism and Master’s Degree in Sports Media, graduating in 2019. At school, Goodman was an anchor and reporter with NNN SportsNight and played on the club baseball team. While at Northwestern, Goodman interned with MLB.com as an associate reporter covering the Miami Marlins. He also interned with ESPN, working as an associate reporter on Mike Greenberg's Get Up. Goodman is from New York City. He grew up in Hell's Kitchen. Follow Goodman on Twitter @MaxTGoodman. You can connect with him via email by reaching out at maxgoodmansports@gmail.com.

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