Inside The Pinstripes

Yankees Bold Predictions For 2022 Season

From Joey Gallo bouncing back in a big way to Jordan Montgomery earning Cy Young Award votes, here are three bold predictions as we inch closer to the 2022 MLB season.

Max Goodman

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It's never too early for some bold predictions.

As the calendar flips to 2022, and the Yankees embark on their 13th consecutive installment of the 'Chase For 28,' we're looking ahead at how certain players in pinstripes will perform this year.

Will Joey Gallo bounce back from his brutal Bronx debut? Which pitchers will make 2022 a year to remember, breaking out in the rotation and in the bullpen?

Let's get to it. Here are three different bold predictions for the Yankees in 2022:

1. Joey Gallo Leads Yankees in Home Runs

Joey Gallo's first few months in pinstripes did not go as planned.

Coming over to the Bronx from the Rangers in a blockbuster trade at the deadline, the slugger struggled mightily at the plate, hitting just .160 with 88 strikeouts over 58 games with his new ball club.

Gallo can't get that first impression with New York's fan base back, but he can certainly win them over in his second year with the Yankees. And he will, by doing what he does best.

Some of Gallo's numbers are awful from his time with the Yankees (and Rangers as well) in 2021. He finished the year with a 34.6 strikeout percentage, a .202 xBA and a 38.8 Whiff%, all in the bottom one percent of the entire league. He truly looked lost at the plate at times, often awakening the boo birds at Yankee Stadium. 

To give up on Gallo and assume that he'll produce more dreadful numbers in 2022, however, is silly. Sure, he strikes out a ton, he always has. But he's also shown that he has what it takes to be an elite hitter with unmatched plate discipline and prodigious power.

Even with Gallo's elongated slump during the final few months of the season, the outfielder finished the campaign with an 18.5 Barrel% (98th percentile) and an 18% walk rate (99th percentile). Plus, he ended up with 38 home runs and a 123 weighted runs created plus (wRC+), 23 percent above league average.

Not to get too specific, but there was also an 11-game stretch in September where Gallo hit .300 with seven homers and a 1.333 OPS. The potential for that type of dominance at the plate is in there, he just wasn't able to consistently produce at that level last season.

I'm not expecting Gallo to suddenly turn into the best hitter in baseball, let alone the best on his team. He's still going to strike out quite often and he won't be winning a batting title any time soon either. With some experience of the pressure and expectations that come with playing for the Yankees already under his belt—and a completely new staff of hitting coaches stepping in this year—I think fans will be pleased with Gallo's production in 2022.

If he can stay healthy for the entire season, continuing to play elite defense in the outfield, we're looking at 40-plus home runs for No. 13. Remember, Gallo was on a 162-game pace for 36 homers in a Yankees uniform a year ago. He'll be more comfortable this year, showing why the Yankees sent four prospects to Texas to acquire him.

Depending on the health of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton—or possibly another top-tier slugger that New York adds after the lockout—Gallo will have some competition for New York's home run crown in 2022. It'll be a race to the finish, but this former first-round pick will come out on top.

2. Jordan Montgomery Finishes in Top Seven of AL Cy Young Award Race

Jordan Montgomery was sneaky good for the Yankees in 2021 and he's just scratching the surface of his true potential.

Last year was Montgomery's first full season since he underwent Tommy John surgery (in the summer of 2018). Over 30 starts, the southpaw posted a 3.83 ERA with 162 strikeouts across 157.1 innings pitched.

Those numbers are inflated a bit by Montgomery's final start of the year as well, an inopportune clunker against the Rays in Game 161. He allowed three homers and seven earned runs over 2.2 frames in that one. 

Looking back, Montgomery's numbers are actually very similar across the board to his strong rookie year. Except now, rather than having his next campaign cut short by elbow surgery, Montgomery has a chance to build on this success, leaning on pitching coach Matt Blake to take another step forward.

When Montgomery was on his game this past season, he was practically unhittable. Mixing his two best offerings (his curveball and changeup) with the rest of his well-balanced, five-pitch arsenal (including his new cutter), the southpaw was able to induce swings and misses and a high chase rate at the best clip of his career. 

He also limited hard contact, permitting an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph. Plus, the left-hander had his best season yet when it comes to fWAR (3.3) and FIP (3.69). 

Watching Montgomery pitch all season, I have a feeling he's going to blossom into the true No. 2 behind Gerrit Cole this year, giving the Yankees something to think about when it comes to the left-hander's future within the organization (with just two more seasons of team control remaining). 

He just consistently battles each time it's his turn to take the ball, doing everything in his power to keep his team in a position to win the game. Even when the Yankees weren't giving him any run support this past summer, Montgomery went out and shoved. 

The southpaw had a 2.62 ERA over 11 starts from midway through July to the end of September, one outing before his frustrating finish to the regular season. He allowed one run or less in nine of those 11 games. Expect Montgomery to carry that momentum into spring training and start this season strong in April and May.

3. Michael King Shines in Both Bullpen and Rotation

Jonathan Loáisiga was an absolute star for the Yankees in 2021, transforming into one of the very best relievers in Major League Baseball.

In 2022, Michael King will take the biggest leap forward among those in New York's 'pen (while stepping into the rotation at times as well).

When I spoke to King at the end of the regular season, checking in on his progress after a stint on the 60-day injured list with a freak injury, the 26-year-old was feeling great. He had moved on from his finger injury, was pitching well and even had an uptick in his velocity on the mound.

King finished the season with a 3.55 ERA over 22 games (six starts) and 63.1 innings pitched. He ultimately fell short of his well-documented 100-inning goal, but is on pace to blow by that number in 2022. In fact, with the type of stuff that King has, and how much he loves the art of pitching, I think we're going to see a monster season from the right-hander this year. 

He'll make a bunch of appearances in the rotation depending on the health of New York's starters, but I see King flourishing in a versatile role out of the bullpen, pitching in high leverage spots while also providing length when needed. 

Some of his numbers in 2021 were actually below average. He struggled to avoid hard hits and his xBA (.257 ) and xERA (4.79) were both in the league's 25th percentile. But when you consider how filthy King's pitches are, with the type of spin he puts on the baseball and the wicked movement he produces, progress feels inevitable so long as he can stay healthy. 

Just look at the production from King when he returned from the IL to finish out the season. Excluding three earned runs in the same game where Montgomery struggled against Tampa Bay, King posted an 0.77 ERA with 12 strikeouts and five hits allowed in his final six outings (11.2 innings pitched) of the year. 

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Max Goodman
MAX GOODMAN

Max Goodman covers the New York Yankees for Sports Illustrated and FanNation. Goodman has been on the Yankees beat for three seasons. He is also the publisher of Sports Illustrated and FanNation's Jets site, Jets Country. Before starting Inside The Pinstripes, Goodman attended Northwestern University and the Medill School of Journalism. He earned his Bachelor’s Degree in Broadcast Journalism and Master’s Degree in Sports Media, graduating in 2019. At school, Goodman was an anchor and reporter with NNN SportsNight and played on the club baseball team. While at Northwestern, Goodman interned with MLB.com as an associate reporter covering the Miami Marlins. He also interned with ESPN, working as an associate reporter on Mike Greenberg's Get Up. Goodman is from New York City. He grew up in Hell's Kitchen. Follow Goodman on Twitter @MaxTGoodman. You can connect with him via email by reaching out at maxgoodmansports@gmail.com.

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