Yankees Opening Day Lineup Prediction: Who Hits Leadoff?

Here's who we think manager Aaron Boone will pencil in on his lineup card on Opening Day in the Bronx.

Max Goodman | Apr 4, 2022

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New York Yankees

TAMPA — In less than one week, the Yankees will embark on the 2022 regular season, taking on the Boston Red Sox on Opening Day in the Bronx.

We know Gerrit Cole will be on the mound, toeing the rubber after an abbreviated spring training. But what about New York's starting lineup?

Here's a prediction of who manager Aaron Boone will pencil in on Thursday morning before those in pinstripes take the field at Yankee Stadium. Then, we'll break this down a little further with some analysis.

Predicting the New York Yankees 2022 Opening Day Lineup

Here's our best guess as to who Aaron Boone will pencil in on his lineup card on Opening Day in the Bronx.

1. Josh Donaldson, 3B

Yankees 3B Josh Donaldson rounds bases — Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Projected stats for 2022 season (FanGraphs): 131 G, .249/.358/.486, 30 HR, 84 RBI

2. Aaron Judge, RF

Yankees RF Aaron Judge at spring training — Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Projected stats for 2022 season (FanGraphs): 150 G, .273/.369/.539, 41 HR, 109 RBI

3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B

Yankees 1B Anthony Rizzo swings in spring training — Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Projected stats for 2022 season (FanGraphs): 136 G, .257/.356/.477, 29 HR, 87 RBI

4. Giancarlo Stanton, DH

Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton rounds bases in spring training — Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Projected stats for 2022 season (FanGraphs): 138 G, .267/.353/.542, 39 HR, 104 RBI

5. Joey Gallo, LF

New York Yankees OF Joey Gallo hits home run — Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Projected stats for 2022 season (FanGraphs): 147 G, .209/.343/.486, 41 HR, 101 RBI

6. Gleyber Torres, 2B

Yankees 2B Gleyber Torres swings in spring training — Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Projected stats for 2022 season (FanGraphs): 146 G, .268/.346/.449, 23 HR, 82 RBI

7. Aaron Hicks, CF

Yankees OF Aaron Hicks celebrates in dugout — Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Projected stats for 2022 season (FanGraphs): 126 G, .233/.346/.416, 19 HR, 65 RBI

8. Kyle Higashioka, C

Yankees catcher Kyle Higashioka swings in spring training — Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Projected stats for 2022 season (FanGraphs): 60 G, .219/.278/.425, 11 HR, 32 RBI

9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS

Yankees SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa high five in dugout — Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Projected stats for 2022 season (FanGraphs): 126 G, .266/.317/.377, 9 HR, 53 RBI

Let's start with the leadoff spot, a place in the order where Boone has plenty of options.

In Josh Donaldson's entire career, the third baseman has only hit leadoff in seven different games (all in 2015, his MVP season with the Blue Jays). This spring, Donaldson has hit leadoff in each of his last five games played (including Sunday's Grapefruit League loss to Toronto in Dunedin).

"He is definitely someone I would consider in that spot," Boone said last month. "A guy that controls the strike zone like he does, ability to get on, power, great hitter, more at the top."

Sevy Saturday comin' up ☀️ pic.twitter.com/I7S2d8EFxK
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) April 2, 2022

This would, of course, be a different story if DJ LeMahieu were in the starting lineup, but this is a direct result of this club's roster construction. With Isiah Kiner-Falefa playing shortstop, Donaldson at third, Gleyber Torres sliding over to second and Anthony Rizzo re-signed at first, there simply isn't a place for LeMahieu to play.

Boone has talked this spring repeatedly about the logjam of infielders on this roster, assuring that everything will sort itself out eventually. It certainly doesn't hurt to have depth, but it's also peculiar to see a team's best pure hitter on the bench. After all, LeMahieu hit leadoff 146 times last season.

Sitting on Opening Day is exactly what happened in 2019, LeMahieu's first season in pinstripes. He ended up finishing fourth in the AL MVP race that year, playing in 145 total games.

It's also worth noting that Boone has shown a propensity for hitting Rizzo first in the past. That's where the first baseman was penciled in during the AL Wild Card Game last fall, also against Nathan Eovaldi and the Red Sox. Rizzo homered in that game and has solid numbers against Eovaldi in his career (5-for-9). So don't be surprised if he gets the nod there on Thursday instead of Donaldson.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton hitting second and fourth, respectively, is no surprise. That allows Boone to slot a left-handed hitter between them in the three hole. You'll notice that trend here, balancing lefties and righties one after another.

While Joey Gallo might work his way into that spot later on, depending on his performance, it looks like Rizzo is the premier choice there (if he's not leading off), another tough out that can drive in runs but also work the count and put the ball in play.

After Gallo is Torres, going back from a lefty to a righty. Aaron Hicks, also a candidate to hit first, follows. Remember, Hicks flashed his elite ability to work walks and get on base back in 2020 (19.4 walk rate). He missed much of last season with a wrist injury.

Then, Kyle Higashioka and Isiah Kiner-Falefa hit eighth and ninth, respectively.

With the way Higashioka is swinging the bat this spring—seven home runs in nine games—he should be hitting cleanup on Opening Day. He provides some thump to the bottom third of the order to go along with his plus defense behind the plate. Kiner-Falefa's speed and low strikeout rate make him a second leadoff man in the nine hole. He's also shown some more pop this spring, changing up his swing and making a concerted effort to drive the ball gap to gap more often this season.

Again, all of this will be shaken up week to week as Boone and the coaching staff find ways to get LeMahieu in the lineup. When one of the other infielders inevitably sits, that'll result in a new-look lineup. Keep an eye on Boone's approach when Stanton periodically shifts to the outfield, opening up the DH spot.

Think this starting nine has the ability to take this team deep into the postseason later this year? Donaldson certainly thinks so.

"I like our lineup," Donaldson said after hitting his third homer of the spring on Sunday. "I like the mixture of guys that we have, we have guys that can drive the ball, we have guys that are patient, we have guys that get on base, we have guys that put the ball in play, can move runners that are going to really be tough at-bats up and down the lineup. As far as all that's concerned, I really believe that one through nine we have an opportunity to go out there and put up crooked numbers at any moment, but also be that team that can scratch and claw and fight and get one run at a time."

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Published Apr 4, 2022

MAX GOODMAN

Max Goodman covers the New York Yankees for Sports Illustrated and FanNation. Goodman has been on the Yankees beat for three seasons. He is also the publisher of Sports Illustrated and FanNation's Jets site, Jets Country. Before starting Inside The Pinstripes, Goodman attended Northwestern University and the Medill School of Journalism. He earned his Bachelor’s Degree in Broadcast Journalism and Master’s Degree in Sports Media, graduating in 2019. At school, Goodman was an anchor and reporter with NNN SportsNight and played on the club baseball team. While at Northwestern, Goodman interned with MLB.com as an associate reporter covering the Miami Marlins. He also interned with ESPN, working as an associate reporter on Mike Greenberg's Get Up. Goodman is from New York City. He grew up in Hell's Kitchen. Follow Goodman on Twitter @MaxTGoodman. You can connect with him via email by reaching out at maxgoodmansports@gmail.com.