Observations on Yankees Star Aaron Judge’s Postseason Struggles; What’s the Cause?

Yankees’ slugger Aaron Judge is batting 6-for-40 (.150) with 19 strikeouts in 50 plate appearances this postseason.

Oct 26, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (99) reacts after striking out in the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game two of the 2024 MLB World Series at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Following Saturday’s 4-2 loss in Game 2 of the World Series, the New York Yankees find themselves in a 2-0 series deficit against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Aside from Juan Soto’s solo home run in the third inning, the Yankees’ offense was silent until the ninth, when Soto, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. all singled, and an Anthony Rizzo hit-by-pitch put the go-ahead run on first base. Unfortunately for New York, their captain and regular-season MVP, Aaron Judge, appeared lost at the plate.

Judge whiffed at a first-pitch sweeper, watched a 95 mph sinker get called for a strike down the middle, took a ball well out of the zone, and then chased a sweeper off the plate for strike three. He finished the game 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, bringing his postseason totals to 6-for-40 (.150) with 19 strikeouts, and 1-for-9 (.111) with six strikeouts in the World Series.

The presumptive AL MVP posted historic regular-season numbers at age 32, finishing with a .322/.458/.701 slash line and a league-leading 58 home runs in 158 games. So what has caused this drastic drop-off in October? It ultimately comes down to two shifts in his approach.

Expanding the Strike Zone

Pitchers have been throwing him junk outside the zone all season long. While Judge laid off those pitches during the regular season, he is now chasing them.

Through 158 regular-season games, Judge had the second-lowest chase rate in the American League (18.7%), behind only Juan Soto (18.3%). In 11 postseason games, his chase rate has spiked to 29.3%.

More concerning is his declining contact rate. Since the regular season ended, his whiff rate has surged from 30.7% to an alarming 44.1%, missing on 49 of his 111 postseason swings. For context, the highest whiff rate during the regular season was 36.4%, recorded by A’s infielder Zack Gelof.

In the regular season, Judge swung and missed at only 12.1% of the pitches he saw. So far in the World Series, that figure has skyrocketed to 32.6%.

In the regular season, Aaron Judge swung and missed at 12.1% of pitches he saw

In the postseason, 21.6%

In the World Series so far, 32.6%

— Foolish Baseball (@FoolishBB) October 27, 2024

Pull-Happy 

If you have ever watched Judge take batting practice, you will notice he rarely tries to hit home runs in that setting. With his power, that comes naturally. Instead, he focuses on staying closed and consistently hitting line drives over the second baseman’s head.

Aaron Judge takes batting practice ahead of tomorrow's Game One World Series matchup pic.twitter.com/C46UnsSRdQ

— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) October 24, 2024

During games this postseason, however, Judge has opened up in an effort to pull pitches on the outer half of the zone, abandoning his usual approach of driving the ball the opposite way. As a result, he has been repeatedly exposed to breaking pitches on the outer third, a tactic Dodgers’ closer Blake Treinen exploited at the end of Game 2.

In a feature story by Greg Joyce of the New York Post, it was revealed that a key factor in Gleyber Torres’ resurgence after the All-Star break was Gio Urshela's observation that Torres was often rolling over and grounding out to the left side instead of driving the ball to the opposite field, where he had found success in the past.

Torres is still an aggressive hitter, but now, when he does not get his pitch, he remains patient, takes walks, and passes the baton to the talented batter behind him—Juan Soto.

Judge demonstrated this ability during his first 158 games this year, which is why pitchers eventually had to challenge him in the zone. The result? 58 home runs, 144 RBIs, and a 1.159 OPS.

Even if Judge simplifying his approach like Torres leads to more walks than the heroic swings expected from a team’s star player on the biggest stage, it would still position his team well to score runs. After all, ALCS MVP Giancarlo Stanton is batting right behind him waiting to do damage.