Should the Yankees Keep This Fan-Favorite Reliever?

One of the Yankees' longtime fan favorites is a free agent this offseason.

Oct 30, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New York Yankees pitcher Tommy Kahnle (41) pitches during the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game four of the 2024 MLB World Series at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

For the lack of a better term, the New York Yankees' bullpen was a rollercoaster in 2024.

Although New York's relief corps performed well down the stretch and in the postseason, the unit's inconsistency and workload made it difficult for the Bronx Bombers to finish games; additionally, several of the Bronx Bombers' high-leverage relievers are currently free agents, such as Clay Holmes, Tim Hill, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Tommy Kahnle, among others.

Some of these decisions are easy, as the Yankees will almost certainly keep Hill and let Holmes walk. But the decision to keep Kahnle or not will be a bit more interesting.

When looking at the stats, Kahnle seems like a slam dunk to stay. Even at age 35, the righty was a rock-solid setup man with a 2.11 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a .190 batting average against over 50 appearances and 42.2 innings. According to Baseball Savant, Kahnle's expected ERA and expected opposing batting average are both higher (3.34 xERA, .203 xBA), indicating that he benefitted from some batted ball luck, but both these projected stats would rank in the upper percentiles (had he qualified), so he'd still be a very effective arm without overperforming.

Kahnle's signature pitch is, of course, his changeup; with a run value of 10, the Yankee veteran generated some truly impressive rate statistics. A staggering 59.8% of batted balls against Kahnle were ground balls, while opponents only averaged an 86.2 MPH exit velocity and whiffed on 36% of his pitches. Overall, Kahnle struck out 46 batters for a 25.7% punchout rate.

Tommy Kahnle, Filthy 88mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/JU2qUejlEc

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 10, 2024

However, Kahnle's greatest strength is also his greatest weakness: he relies too much on his changeup. During the regular season, he threw the pitch 73% of the time, and during the postseason, he threw 61 consecutive changeups. As great as the pitch is, throwing it over and over again will inevitably make him one of the most predictable pitchers in the league to face. (Of course, Mariano Rivera almost exclusively threw his cutter, but that is the one exception to the rule.)

Kahnle's other pitches besides the changeup are often used as get-me-over pitches, but none of them are particularly effective; while he regularly reaches the mid-90s with his four-seam fastball, it has a -8 run value due to lacking spin. Opponents hit .286/.429/.536 against Kahnle's fastball last year, making it the equivalent of a BP pitch; the fastball will only become worse as Kahnle loses his velocity, which he may be losing already due to being in his mid-30s.

Ultimately, the Yankees should still keep Kahnle due to not just his individual effectiveness, but because of how important he is to the bullpen; without the righty, New York's relief corps would have a severe lack of capable setup men. The veteran is also beloved by both his teammates and the fanbase, so bringing him back would be great for morale.

But during the offseason, the Yankees should also work with Kahnle on developing another pitch to add to his limited arsenal, as while his changeup is one of the best in the game, it's not feasible to rely on it alone.