What Are The Yankees' Playoff Chances?

The AL East crown isn't the only thing the Yankees are competing for down the stretch.

Sep 15, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees relief pitcher Tommy Kahnle (41) celebrates with catcher Jose Trevino (39) after defeating the Boston Red Sox 5-2 at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees are on the cusp of fulfilling one of their goals this season.

After taking three-of-four over their hated rivals, the Boston Red Sox, the Bronx Bombers have improved their record to 87-63 and expanded their AL East lead to three games over the Baltimore Orioles. Although the race is still very close, New York is beginning to create some distance; additionally, their magic number to clinch a playoff spot of any kind is down to just three.

Needless to say, the Yankees will be playing in October unless they lose almost all of their remaining games. But making the postseason is only part of the equation; if the Yankees want to win their first World Series championship since 2009, they'd need to put themselves in a favorable playoff position and have the American League run through them.

Entering the team's off-day on Monday, this appears to be the case.

According to PlayoffStatus.com, the Yankees are firmly in control of their destiny, with a fantastic 69% chance to secure home-field advantage throughout the AL postseason; the Yankees haven't been the top seed in the AL since 2012. They additionally have a 17% chance for the second seed, which would still give them an automatic bye to the Division Series, while the fourth seed (13%) would give them home-field advantage in the best-of-three Wild Card Series. New York has less than a 1% chance for the third, fifth, and sixth seeds, while their chances of missing the dance entirely is effectively at 0%.

New York's division race with Baltimore isn't the only thing they're battling for, though. The AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians are just one game behind the Bronx Bombers for the top seed, and can reduce that lead to a half a game if they beat the Minnesota Twins (who currently have the sixth seed) on Monday night. However, the Yankees own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Cleveland, which would give them the top seed outright if both teams finish with identical records; this may be why New York's odds are so high.

In fact, the Orioles and the Seattle Mariners are the only two teams in the playoff hunt that the Yankees don't currently hold the tiebreaker over; New York will play both teams over their final 12 games of the regular season. The three-game series against the Mariners will be on the road from Tuesday to Thursday, but even if the Yankees don't earn the tiebreaker over them, it likely won't impact the playoff race due to each team racing for separate things (New York for the top two seeds, Seattle for either the third seed or Wild Card).

The bigger tiebreaker for the Yankees to earn will be against Baltimore, who they will host in a three-game set in Yankee Stadium from September 24-26. However, the Orioles have struggled greatly as of late, losing seven of their last 10 games; if New York can build a big enough lead over their division rival by the time this climactic showdown rolls around, they can clinch the AL East outright instead of worrying about possible tiebreaker scenarios.

This is made easier by the Yankees' somewhat weak schedule ahead. Although they will have to go up against a tough Mariners team, they will then travel to Oakland (for the last time ever) to play the Athletics, who have been eliminated from playoff contention and are one of the AL's weakest teams. After the massive series against Baltimore, New York will host the Pittsburgh Pirates to conclude their regular season; unless Pittsburgh starts Paul Skenes and/or Jared Jones on the mound, the Yankees shouldn't have to worry about them.

As for Baltimore, their remaining schedule is rather tough. Although they are expected to beat the San Francisco Giants, their final series at home will be against the resurgent Detroit Tigers, who have suddenly roared back into the playoff hunt and have just taken two-of-three from the O's in the Motor City. After playing the Yankees, the Orioles will finish their regular season on the road against the Twins; Minnesota is competing for the last Wild Card spot, so they likely will put up a valiant fight.

If the Yankees can claim the top seed in the AL, they'd not only have home-field advantage over contenders such as Cleveland and Baltimore; they'd also hold it over the Houston Astros, who have played in the ALCS every year since 2017 and are looking to clinch both the AL West and the No. 3 seed. Houston has famously beaten the Yankees three times in the ALCS, most recently in a four-game sweep in 2022; however, they held home-field advantage in each of those series against the Bronx Bombers, so perhaps the Yankees can finally get over the hump if they claim home field against their grim reaper.

Overall, the Yankees have largely taken care of business against their primary competitors, which has put themselves in optimal playoff positioning despite stretches of inconsistency. They will look to continue their momentum as the games begin to matter more and more, starting with a West Coast clash against the Mariners on Tuesday; first pitch will be at 9:40 PM ET.