Who Should the Yankees Want to Face In the ALDS?

The Yankees have an automatic bye to the Division Series, but their road to the World Series will still be tough.

Jul 12, 2020; Bronx, New York, United States; A view of the New York Yankees logo and seat number of an empty seat during a simulated game during summer camp workouts at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

There are eight teams competing in the Wild Card Series this week, but the New York Yankees are not one of them.

Thanks to finishing with the best record in the American League, the Bronx Bombers have received an automatic bye to the Division Series and will begin their postseason run on Saturday, October 5. But even with almost a week off, the Yankees are still anxiously awaiting their opponent and preparing diligently for a run to the World Series.

Due to the lack of re-seeding in the Division Series, the winner of the AL Wild Card Series between the Baltimore Orioles (No. 4 seed) and Kansas City Royals (No. 5 seed) will take on New York in the ALDS. But which opponent is more preferable for the Yankees to face?

Surprisingly, the answer is neither; both the Orioles and Royals have strengths that the Yankees need to be wary of, as well as weaknesses that can be thoroughly exploited.

Regarding the Orioles, they won the season series over the Yankees 8-5, which includes a 4-2 record in Yankee Stadium. This could be rather concerning due to Baltimore's propensity for hitting home runs; they hit the second-most homers in MLB this season (behind only the Yankees themselves) with 235, and have nine different players hit 10 or more, with Anthony Santander (44) and Gunnar Henderson (37) leading the way. The rest of the lineup is remarkably balanced, with no true weak point for the Yankees to look for.

However, Baltimore's pitching has become a significant weakness lately, with ace Corbin Burnes being the only pitcher they can consistently rely on. Albert Suarez, Dean Kremer, and Cade Povich have all been extremely inconsistent, and the loss of Grayson Rodriguez to injury severely hurts the rotation. The bullpen is even worse; even with Craig Kimbrel being DFA'd due to poor performance, Seranthony Dominguez hasn't been much better as the new closer with -0.3 fWAR, while even their better bullpen arms like Yennier Cano, Cionel Perez, and Keegan Akin have been prone to big innings. So, for as much damage the Orioles can deal to New York's pitching corps, the Yankees can counter with just as much.

As for the Royals, the Yankees won the season series 5-2 over them, including winning three-of-four in Kauffman Stadium. Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the most dynamic players in the game thanks to a combination of hitting for both average (.332, best in MLB) and power (32 homers), while being one of the league's best baserunners (31 stolen bases and 4.5 baserunning runs). Salvador Perez is also a major home run threat and had dominated the Yankees in their last meeting, while another power threat, Vinnie Pasquantino, is returning from injury. Outside of these players, though, the rest of the Royals' lineup is rather weak, so the Yankees should try to pitch carefully to these players and mow down everyone else.

Kansas City's starting pitching staff has been very strong, with a four-man rotation of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Brady Singer. Ragans has emerged as one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league (29.3% strikeout rate), while he, Lugo, and Wacha all have ERAs under 3.50; Lugo in particular has a 3.00 ERA while demonstrating outstanding control with a 5.7% walk rate. However, outside of closer Lucas Erceg, who's been brilliant since being acquired (1.17 FIP and 2.88 ERA), the Royals' bullpen has been extremely prone to blowups and big innings, with the Yankees themselves witnessing this first-hand. As such, the plan is for New York to drive up the pitch count to get Kansas City's starters out of the game as fast as possible, and tee off against the bullpen.

Ultimately, the Bronx Bombers should still match up well with their strong lineup and rotation, along with a bullpen that has rounded into impressive form in September. However, with the Orioles' loaded lineup and the Royals' powerful starting pitching, either teams will certainly provide a challenge in the ALDS.