Why Yankees Could Be Inclined to Go the Bargain Route at First Base

The Yankees have reasons to avoid the top free-agent first basemen, and it is not related to money.

Aug 31, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46) runs out a double against the New York Yankees during the third inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees have been aggressive throughout the offseason, but they may decide to pass on the top available free-agent first basemen for reasons other than money.

On Thursday night, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Yankees are "increasingly likely" to pursue a more inexpensive option at first base rather than targeting Pete Alonso, who declined the qualifying offer earlier this offseason.

“The Yankees sacrificed their second and fifth-highest picks, as well as $1 million in international bonus pool space, for signing free-agent left-hander Max Fried,” Rosenthal wrote. “The signing of Alonso would come at the additional cost of their third and sixth-highest selections, effectively blowing up their 2025 draft.”

Essentially, this would leave the Yankees with just two dart throws in the first five rounds of the draft, significantly limiting their ability to replenish a farm system that, according to MLB Pipeline, ranks No. 18 in baseball and features just one Top 100 prospect: Jasson Domínguez.

Adding to the challenge, the Yankees face a 10-pick penalty on their first selection for exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax, meaning they will not be on the clock until pick 39.

As MLB Trade Rumors pointed out, the last time the Yankees signed multiple free agents who rejected qualifying offers was in 2013-14, when they added Carlos Beltrán, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brian McCann. The Yankees did receive a 2025 compensatory pick when Juan Soto signed with the New York Mets but subsequently lost it as part of the penalty for signing Fried.

Rosenthal also cited Christian Walker as a less likely option for New York on Thursday evening, but Walker is no longer on the table after reportedly agreeing to a three-year, $60 million deal with the Houston Astros on Friday. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Yankees had shown interest in Walker but were reluctant to forfeit additional draft picks to get him.

The Yankees were interested in Walker too but didn’t want to lose a draft pick in compensation. They still are focused on Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 20, 2024

Fortunately for the Yankees, the market for first basemen has been slow to develop this winter, leaving several quality options available—aside from Walker. Free-agent alternatives include Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Justin Turner, Josh Bell, and Anthony Rizzo, who was given a $6 million buyout when his $17 million club option was declined by the Yankees in November.

The Yankees could also explore trade options for Cleveland’s Josh Naylor ($12 million in the final year of club control), Texas’ Nathaniel Lowe ($10.7 million with one year of arbitration remaining), or Tampa Bay’s Yandy Díaz ($10 million with a $12 million club option for 2026).

However, some of the available free-agent options may come at a comparable or even lower salary than these players, with the added benefit of avoiding the loss of prospects in a trade.

While recently acquired slugger Cody Bellinger is expected to primarily play left or center field, Rosenthal mentioned the possibility that the Yankees could add another outfielder and shift Bellinger to first base full-time.

That said, if the Yankees are truly concerned about losing draft picks, targeting top outfield names like Teoscar Hernández or Anthony Santander would not make sense, due to the qualifying offers attached to them. This concern would not apply to free agents like Jurickson Profar, though.

Ultimately, bypassing the more expensive first basemen or outfielders now could set the Yankees up to pursue star Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami as their long-term first baseman when he is posted next offseason.

They could also save their resources to make a run at superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker if he does not agree to an extension with the Chicago Cubs by the end of the upcoming season.