Yankees' Juan Soto Not Expected to Surpass Shohei Ohtani's Contract in Free Agency

It doesn't seem likely that the Yankees' slugger will be the highest-paid player in baseball.

Oct 19, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto (22) celebrates after making the final out to beat the Cleveland Guardians during game five of the ALCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn Images / David Dermer-Imagn Images

Juan Soto's upcoming contract will be record-setting, but it probably won't beat the all-time record.

The New York Yankees' slugger enjoyed the best all-around season of his career and led his new team to a World Series appearance; coupled with his impressive career totals all before turning 26, Soto is expected to receive one of the biggest contracts in North American professional sports when he becomes a free agent at the conclusion of the Fall Classic.

However, according to Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic, Soto's expected payday is highly unlikely to match or surpass the deal that Shohei Ohtani signed last offseason with the Los Angeles Dodgers; the two-way phenom set a new record by signing a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Yankees' current World Series opponent.

"Ohtani’s overall number of $700 million seems like a pipe dream unless Soto is willing to accept heavy deferrals," Ghiroli wrote in her article.

Aaron Judge left money on the table to stay in New York long-term.

The Yankees won’t get as lucky with Juan Soto — World Series win or not.@Britt_Ghiroli on the need for record money to keep New York's slugger: https://t.co/LOQr6semaO pic.twitter.com/XDPfn82lQH

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) October 22, 2024

Ohtani is deferring $680 million of his contract until it expires in 2033; as such, he is only being paid $2 million per season from 2024 to 2033 before the Dodgers pay him $68 million per year from 2034 to 2043. The net-present value of the contract is still a record-setting $46 million per season, which is the biggest in MLB history, but the significant money Ohtani makes from endorsements and other off-field activities allows him to makes these massive deferrals.

As for Soto, his upcoming contract could very well surpass the $46 million in both net-present value and average annual value (AAV), but while other Scott Boras (Soto's agent) clients have had heavy deferrals before in their deals, the soon-to-be 26-year-old phenom would have to accept deferrals similar to Ohtani's in order to match or surpass the $700 million in total value; unless Soto can make a similar amount of money as Ohtani from off-field ventures, this seems to be extremely unlikely.

Nonetheless, even if an Ohtani-esque deal isn't realistic, Soto is almost certain to surpass Mike Trout's 12-year, $426.5 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels to become the highest paid position player in MLB history. According to Spotrac, Soto will enter free agency as a 14-year, $514 million player by their algorithm - and this, in all likelihood, would be the starting point of negotiations, as a close-to $600 million contract is certainly in the cards.

(Barely 25-year-old) Juan Soto will enter free agency as a 14 year, $514M player in our system, mathematically speaking. It's the highest single-position valuation our algorithm has ever spit out, and it feels like a starting point - not an end game for negotiations.

— Spotrac (@spotrac) October 20, 2024

During the 2022-23 offseason, the Yankees were able to keep Aaron Judge around with a nine-year, $360 million contract that was the biggest in team history, although he took less money compared to offers from other teams (most notably the San Diego Padres). With Soto, the Yankees would need to leave every single dollar on the table for him, even if they end up winning the World Series.

Fortunately for the Yankees, they are by far the most valuable franchise in Major League Baseball at $7.55 billion, so they can match any offer from an opposing team - even from the cross-town rival New York Mets, who have the richest owner in the sport. Soto additionally has loved his time with the Yankee organization and has gotten on good terms with owner Hal Steinbrenner, formed a brotherly relationship with his teammates (especially Judge), and adored the affection given from the Bronx Bombers' rowdy fanbase.

Even if Soto's upcoming deal wouldn't be quite as big as Ohtani's, the Yankees still need to show no financial restraint if they want to keep the slugger in pinstripes for the foreseeable future. Considering how much money the team is worth, they are undoubtedly able to make such a deal - it all comes down to if they truly want to.