Yankees' Latest Playoff Odds Projection Produce Shocking Result

With an incredible start to the season, how good are the Yankees' chances to make the playoffs?

Jun 7, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres (25) picks up a pop up he dropped for an error by Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Enrique Hernandez (not pictured) in front of Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) and first baseman Anthony Rizzo (48) during the third inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees are aiming to return to the World Series this season, but they, of course, need to make the playoffs first.

A brutally disappointing season in 2023 saw the Bronx Bombers not even take the field in October, a result that team owner Hal Steinbrenner and general manager Brian Cashman considered unacceptable. With a combination of major offseason splashes (Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo), smart free agent signings (Marcus Stroman), key players staying healthy (Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton), and outstanding play on both sides of the ball, the Yankees have asserted themselves as one of the best teams in the majors with an AL-best 45-20 record.

But even with their incredible run so far, not even the Yankees would expect their playoff odds to be as high as they are at the moment.

According to FanGraphs, New York has an unbelievable 99.7% chance to play in October. It is the highest odds of any team in baseball to make the postseason (just ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers, who are both at 99.6%), and by far the highest odds of an American League team; the division rival Baltimore Orioles have the second-highest playoff odds in the AL at 94.8%.

AL playoff chances, per Fangraphs:
NYY 99.7%
BAL 94.8%
CLE 77.8%
SEA 73.1%
KC 60.4%
MIN 56.1%
HOU 42.5%
TB 25.5%
DET 19.0%
TEX 18.5%
TOR 18.1%
BOS 13.6%
LAA 0.4%
OAK 0.2%
CWS 0.0%

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) June 8, 2024

The Yankees have been so good this year that a postseason appearance is nearly guaranteed for them, even with over three-and-a-half months of baseball left to play.

For a team to have a percentage that high this early in the season, there would usually be other factors in play such as strength of schedule and division; New York has been challenged in these regards, as they are only 3.5 games ahead of Baltimore in the AL East and are 13-8 against teams above .500. In contrast, the Phillies and Dodgers have combined to play as many games against above .500 teams as the Yankees have wins (13), and both are eight games ahead in their respective divisions.

To further add to the adversity the Yankees have faced, they've had their fair share of injuries to important players. Gerrit Cole hasn't thrown a single pitch for them yet (although he's working his way back), Juan Soto missed his first game since 2022 on Friday (although he should avoid the IL), Clarke Schmidt is out for at least two months with a lat strain, and Jonathan Loaisiga is out for the season.

But none of that has stopped the Bronx Bombers from effectively punching their ticket to the postseason before the dog days of summer. Although they still need to cruise to the finish line with intention, they can now primarily focus on performing in the playoffs to claim a World Series championship for the first time in 15 years.