UFC 291 Predictions: Picking Winners for Biggest Bouts in Poirier vs. Gaethje

The BMF title fight isn’t the only great bout on this deep fight card that has a ton of big names on it from top to bottom.

UFC 291 is an incredibly deep, star-studded card, and it has the potential for the most exciting main event of the year in Dustin Poirier–Justin Gaethje.

The ceremonial BMF title is at stake for the Poirier-Gaethje bout, as well as the next shot at the lightweight belt. The card also features the light heavyweight debut of Alex Pereira, who meets former champion Jan Błachowicz, as well as Stephen Thompson–Michel Pereira, Tony Ferguson–Bobby Green, and Kevin Holland–Michael Chiesa.

The prelims even include Derrick Lewis, who has a tough fight in front of him against Marcos Rogério de Lima. Overall, it is a spectacular card, offering even more depth than UFC 290 did earlier this month.

My picks from last weekend weren’t pretty, but I’m entering this fight card with renewed optimism.

Main event: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje

Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje meet in a rematch from 2018, a bout that Poirier won by TKO. Undefeated in all three of his rematches, Poirier looks to add to that record with another victory against Gaethje.

Poirier (29-7-1) has looked outstanding in four of his past five fights. But perhaps those wins are slightly overvalued. His victories came at the expense of Conor McGregor (twice), Michael Chandler and Dan Hooker, with the lone defeat suffered against Charles Oliveira. Poirier also hasn’t competed in the Octagon since his win against Chandler in November 2021.

Gaethje (24–4), who is coming off a victory last March against Rafael Fiziev, is getting this opportunity at the perfect moment. His striking is even more precise than Poirier’s, and a win here is among the most significant of his career.

This bout is destined to be violent for as long as it lasts. While it is odd to think a Gaethje win would be an upset, that is going to be Gaethje’s moment.

Pick: Justin Gaethje

Light heavyweight bout: Jan Błachowicz vs. Alex Pereira

Full disclosure: I have been wrong before. I’ll also be wrong again. But I feel extremely confident that Alex Pereira is going to knock out Jan Błachowicz.

Błachowicz (29-9-1) looked washed-up when he dropped the light heavyweight title to Glover Teixeira, and that was in October 2021. He returned in May of last year to beat Aleksandar Rakić, but only after Rakić tore his ACL, then put forth an uninspired performance in December in a bout for the vacant title against Magomed Ankalaev that somehow fittingly ended in a draw. Now 40, Błachowicz is showing his age and slowed reflexes, which makes him prone to a knockout blow.

After a decorated kickboxing career, Pereira (7–2) quickly dominated the middleweight division. He tormented Israel Adesanya, winning the belt before losing it last April. A massive individual, Pereira was cutting too much weight to make middleweight. The change to light heavyweight at 205 pounds opens a world of new possibilities, where he will begin by testing his power against Błachowicz’s chin.

This is one that feels over before it even starts.

Pick: Alex Pereira

Welterweight bout: Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson vs. Michel Pereira

A real test for Stephen Thompson is Michael Pereira, who enters the fight 11 years younger and on an impressive five-fight win streak. Unfortunately, Pereira weighed in Friday morning at 174 pounds, three pounds over the non-title bout maximum.

As of Friday afternoon, there has yet to be an announcement as to whether the fight will still take place. It is especially frustrating because this was a great chance for Pereira to finally prove he belonged in the top 10, and it was also another opportunity for the 40-year-old Thompson to showcase that he is still elite.

Thompson (17-6-1) is so disciplined in the cage, and his speed and power have yet to slow down. He has won three of his last five, most recently with a solid victory against Kevin Holland this past December.

If the bout takes place, Pereira (28-11, 2 NC) needs to dictate the pace with his takedown offense and ground game, or really unload his kicks.

But a fun fight is now in question.

Pick: Stephen Thompson

Lightweight bout: Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green

Though he never had the title, there was a stretch when Tony Ferguson was the best lightweight in the world. Had they fought, Ferguson would have been the one to end Khabib Nurmagomedov’s undefeated record. From October 2013 to June ’19, Ferguson was untouchable in the cage.

That time has long passed.

After winning 12 in a row, Ferguson (25–8) has now lost his past five fights. Each passing loss is worse than the one before. Gaethje wrecked him before Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush dominated him, and then Michael Chandler nearly kicked his face off. The brutal stretch was exacerbated by a loss to Nate Diaz, who hadn’t won a fight in three years (though, to be fair, he’d fought only twice in that timespan). All signs point to Green, who is in desperate need of a win, getting exactly what he needs against Ferguson at UFC 291.

Green (29-14-1, 1 NC) had dropped two in a row before a frustrating no-contest ripped away what he believed was a certain victory in April against Jared Gordon. But the powers that be have smiled upon Green, offering a chance to end the UFC career of the once-great Ferguson.

If Ferguson loses, it is hard to believe he will get another opportunity to fight in the Octagon.

Pick: Bobby Green

Welterweight bout: Kevin Holland vs. Michael Chiesa

This is another fascinating fight on a card full of intrigue.

Kevin Holland has been extremely active since his brief retirement, losing to Thompson in December before knocking out Santiago Ponzinibbio in April. Overall, he has won two of his three welterweight bouts and looks to make it three out of four.

Michael Chiesa, however, is a completely different story.

Nearly two years have elapsed since his last bout. Chiesa (18–6) lost to Sean Brady in November 2021, and injuries have made him more recognizable as an analyst than for being an active fighter. Holland (24–9, 1 NC) is a very tough, aggressive matchup for his return.

Holland has a combination of speed and power that should allow the UFC 291 main card to open with a knockout.

Pick: Kevin Holland

Past Picks:

Last week: 1–4

2023 record: 77–51

Justin Barrasso can be reached at JBarrasso@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @JustinBarrasso.