Kentucky Derby Preview

SI Staff | May 2, 2009

Kentucky Derby Preview /

Kentucky Derby Preview

West Side Bernie

Post Position: 1 Jockey: Stewart Elliott Trainer: Kelly Breen Finished an unthreatening second to Derby favorite I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct back on April 4. Bred to be a sprinter, West Side Bernie won the first two starts of his career last year -- the second time running 1 1/16 miles -- but hasn't been back to the Winner's Circle since last September.

Musket Man

Post Position: 2 Jockey: Eibar Coa Trainer: Derek Ryan He's coming into the Derby off consecutive victories in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 14 and in the Illinois Derby on April 4. He's now won five of seven career starts but has yet to show the kind of speed to match some of the better horses in the field. Coupled with his record, his long odds should ensure he sees plenty of action at the betting windows on Saturday.

Mr. Hot Stuff

Post Position: 3 Jockey: John Velazquez Trainer: Eoin Harty A late-maturing closer with some talent, Mr. Hot Stuff is another colt who's yet to show the speed of some of his fellow three-year-olds. Still, as a son of Tiznow, who twice won the Breeders' Cup Classic, the colt should love the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance, and seems a good bet to be full of run when the field turns for home.

Advice

Post Position: 4 Jockey: Rene Douglas Trainer: Todd Pletcher His victory in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 18 was his first win since last September. Like West Side Bernie, Advice has more of a speed pedigree and is likely to struggle at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. One other strike against him: his Lexington win was over a synthetic surface, which throws into question his ability to run well over dirt at Churchill Downs.

Hold Me Back

Post Position: 5 Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Trainer: Bill Mott A runnerup finisher to General Quarters in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 11, Hold Me Back is another contender whose best career races have come over synthetic surfaces. But the colt does have the sort of pedigree and long-striding style to suggest he should be able to handle the 1 1/4 miles of the Derby. Another thing in his favor is that his jockey, Kent Desormeaux, has plenty of Derby experience, and has won the race three times since 1998.

Friesan Fire

Post Position: 6 Jockey: Gabriel Saez Trainer: Larry Jones He's won his last three races, and four of seven in his career. The colt's last victory came on March 14, in the Louisiana Derby. That's a longer layoff than usual, but with his speed and pedigree -- he's by leading sire A.P. Indy -- Friesan Fire seems a serious contender to win the roses on Saturday.

Papa Clem

Post Position: 7 Jockey: Rafael Bejarano Trainer: Gary Stute After finishing more than seven lengths behind Friesan Fire in a runnerup showing in the Louisiana Derby, Papa Clem came back to win the Arkansas Derby on April 11 by ditching his usual front-running style. On that day, he wore down the leaders after a long drive through the stretch. His middle-distance pedigree suggestst the Churchill Downs stretch might be too much for him.

Mine That Bird

Post Position: 8 Jockey: Calvin Borel Trainer: Bennie Woolley One of six horses in the field with Morning-Line odds of 50-1, Mine that Bird hasn't won since last October. The colt also has yet to display anything close to the kind of speed that typically wins the Derby. He may well go to the post on Saturday with the longest odds on the board. But with savvy jockey Calvin Borel -- who won the Derby in 2007 on Street Sense -- the colt is likely to get a clean, ground-saving trip.

Join in the Dance

Post Position: 9 Jockey: Chris DeCarlo Trainer: Todd Pletcher With only one win in eight career starts -- and that was last July -- Join in the Dance is one of the least accomplished starters in the Derby. The colt has already lost to fellow Derby entrants General Quarters and Musket Man, and seems a long shot to give trainer Todd Pletcher his first victory in the Run for the Roses.

Regal Ransom

Post Position: 10 Jockey: Alan Garcia Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor Another underwhelming contender from the powerful Godolphin Stable of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashind al Maktoum, the crown prince of Dubai. Regal Ransom won the UAE Derby back on March 28 with a front-running performance. That's not likely to happen this time with horses like I Want Revenge on his heels.

Chocolate Candy

Post Position: 11 Jockey: Mike Smith Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Chocolate Candy rallied for an impressive second-place finish to Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. He has won four of nine career starts, and while he hasn't shown the speed of this year's best three-year-olds, his pedigree and his game style could make him a fan favorite at the betting windows on Saturday.

General Quarters

Post Position: 12 Jockey: Julien Leparoux Trainer: Tom McCarthy The big gray colt is nothing if not versatile, winning Derby preps on dirt at Tampa Bay and on a synthetic surface at Keeneland. His pedigree isn't the best for the Derby, but he's plenty game and has actually flashed the kind of speed necessary to win.

I Want Revenge

Scratched: Post Position: 13 Jockey: Joe Talamo Trainer: Jeff Mullins His win in the Wood Memorial on April 4, in which he overcame a terrible start and severe traffic problems in the stretch, was one of the most impressive prep victories in recent memory and established him as the favorite until his Saturday morning scratch.

Atomic Rain

Post Position: 14 Jockey: Joe Bravo Trainer: Kelly Breen The colt's only win to date came last June at five furlongs, which was five fewer than he'll have to run on Saturday. He's earned his way to Churchill Downs with a string of decent finishes in big races: second in last November's Remsen Stakes, fourth in the Wood Memorial. With that track record, odds of 50-1 seem generous indeed.

Dunkirk

Post Position: 15 Jockey: Edgar Prado Trainer: Todd Pletcher Dunkirk is trying to become the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without making a start at the age of two. The gray colt has won two of his three starts this year, losing only to Quality Road in a thrilling stretch drive at the Florida Derby. But Quality Road will miss the Derby with an injury, leaving the door open for Dunkirk to be a serious challenger.

Pioneerof the Nile

Post Position: 16 Jockey: Garrett Gomez Trainer: Bob Baffert A son of 2003 Derby favorite (and Belmont winner) Empire Maker, Pioneerof the Nile has shown little difficulty with nine furlongs, so he's likely to do well with 10 in the Derby on Saturday. He's won four in a row since finishing fifth in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, a run that includes victories in the San Felipe Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby. But all of his wins have come either on turf or on synthetic tracks, so there is a lot of uncertainty about how he will handle the dirt at Churchill Downs. If anybody should know, it's trainer Bob Baffert, who's won the Derby three times since 1997.

Summer Bird

Post Position: 17 Jockey: Chris Rosier Trainer: Tim Ice He's a longshot for a reason, and not just because he has yet to show great speed. Summer Bird has just one win -- in a six-furlong Maiden at Saratoga last August -- in 10 career starts, and in his last two has finished behind fellow Derby entrants Papa Clem and Hold Me Back.

Nowhere to Hide

Post Position: 18 Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan Trainer: Nick Zito Like lots of classic horses trained by Nick Zito, Nowhere to Hide has a classy pedigree -- he's by former champion two-year-old Vindication, who was one of the last son's of Triple-Crown winner Seattle Slew. But the colt isn't very accomplished or fast, and is another who has earned his way to Louisville by not running poorly in important prep races.

Desert Party

Post Position: 19 Jockey: Ramon Dominguez Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor Desert Party seems the more serious half of the Godolphin entry (the other is UAE Derby winner Regal Ransom). Royally bred, the son of Street Cry won the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga last summer. But his runnerup finish in the UAE Derby was a disappointment -- his connections switched jockeys after that race, dumping the great Italian rider Frankie Dettori in favor of Ramon Dominguez.

Flying Private

Post Position: 20 Jockey: Robby Albarado Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas There was a time when Wayne Lukas could hardly walk through his barn without bumping into a serious Derby contender. But that was years ago. Now 74, the dean of Triple-Crown trainers (with four Derby victories in 42 stars to his credit) hasn't had a horse in this race since 2005. Unfortunately, Flying Private looks to be overmatched, with only one victory in 10 career starts.

Published May 2, 2009

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