Spain vs. Australia Olympic Basketball Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Group A

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Spain vs. Australia Olympic matchup in Group A in men's basketball.

Team Australia point guard Patty Mills (5) and Team Australia small forward Joe Ingles. / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Group Play for men’s basketball in the 2024 Paris Olympics kicks off early on Saturday morning with Spain taking on Australia in a Group A matchup. 

Both of these teams are in the middle of the pack when it comes to the odds to win gold, but they’ve also had great international success, with Australia most recently taking home the bronze in the 2020 Olympics. 

Here’s a look at the odds, rosters, players to watch for and my pick for this Group A matchup. 

Spain vs. Australia Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Spain +5.5 (-110)
• Australia -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Spain: +195
• Australia: -238

Total

• 166.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Spain vs. Australia How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, July 27
• Time: 5:00 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): CNBC, FuboTV, Peacock
• Spain record: 0-0
• Australia record: 0-0

Spain vs. Australia Odds to Win Gold Medal

• Spain: +5000
• Australia: +4000

Spain vs. Australia Rosters and Key Players to Watch

Spain

• Alex Abrines
• Santi Aldama
• Dario Brizuela
• Lorenzo Brown
• Alberto Diaz
• Rudy Fernandez
• Usman Garuba
• Juancho Hernangomez
• Willy Hernangomez
• Sergio Llull
• Xabi Lopez Arostegui
• Jaime Pradilla

There’s a lot of talent on this Spain squad, which is usually a group with a ton of continuity – led by 39-year-old Rudy Fernandez. While Fernandez is now more a role player given his age, he did play 14.0 minutes per game across two contests in last year’s World Cup. 

If Spain is going to make a deep run, NBA players like Juancho and Willy Hernangomez, as well as Santi Aldama, will need to lead the way. 

Australia

• Dyson Daniels
• Matthew Dellavedova
• Dante Exum
• Josh Giddey
• Josh Green
• Joe Ingles
• Nick Kay
• Jock Landale
• Will Magnay
• Jack McVeigh
• Patty Mills
• Duop Reath

This Australia team is going to be a fun one to watch this summer. Dyson Daniels, Josh Giddey, Josh Green, Duop Reath and Jock Landale are all young NBA players that could pose a bit of a threat to some of the top teams in the tournament. 

I’m also interested in veterans Joe Ingles and Patty Mills, who have a ton of experience internationally and have given teams trouble in the past. Mills averaged 21.7 points per game in the 2020 Olympics and 19.0 points per game in the 2023 FIBA World Cup. 

Spain vs. Australia Prediction and Pick

I am high on this Australia team given the talent it has – veteran and young – across the roster. 

While Spain has some NBA talent and some great overseas players, it lacks the star power that Australia has with Giddey, Mills, Ingles and Daniels on the roster. I am worried about Dante Exum (dislocated finger) and his status for Group Play, but Australia still has the more talented team. 

It is tricky to gauge how some of these teams will play until we see their true rotations in the Olympics, but I’m willing to lay the points with the team that took home the bronze just a few years ago. 

Pick: Australia -5.5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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