What are Tristan Thompson's services worth to the Cleveland Cavaliers?

Author:
Rob Mahoney
Publish date:
Sep 24, 2015

The question of what Tristan Thompson is worth as an NBA player is complicated by a tiny problem: Worth, in this sense, is a function of what some NBA team would be willing to pay him in the cap-rich market of 2016. Skills matter. Potential matters. The whims of the market matter more. Thompson's agent, Rich Paul, has dragged out contract negotiations by forcing the Cavaliers to measure up against a mystery suitor—one with money to burn after the cap vaults to a projected $89 million next summer.

To this end Paul and Thompson have demanded a five-year, $94 million max contract, until Thursday when it was reported that Thompson was willing to sign a three-year, $53 million deal. Cleveland, to this point, has reportedly stood pat on its original five-year offer worth $80 million. Whether that initial gap can be bridged depends on a concession beyond money. Both parties are now trading in the optics of public negotiation; Cleveland giving in would signify the team being held hostage by its own restricted free agent while Thompson accepting a smaller deal would reflect back on Paul and an empty promise that his client would rather play out a one-year qualifying offer. Thompson's actual value as a basketball player seems almost beside the point.

Report: Cavaliers, Tristan Thompson $14 million apart on contract talks

That much is reinforced by the fact that as a member of next season's Cavaliers, Thompson would have almost no capacity to validate the deal his representation has demanded. Thompson will be a reserve, slotted behind both incumbent center Timofey Mozgov and the newly re-signed Kevin Love. Last year he topped only Matthew Dellavedova, Shawn Marion, and Mike Miller among Cavs in usage rate—a fact illustrative of his minimal offensive role. His most impactful performance to date came from emergency; never would Thompson have had the opportunity to make the mark on the playoffs he did had Love been healthy and available.

Now Love is back and Thompson returns to the same reserve spot that yielded just 26.8 minutes per game in the regular season. To say that a player as limited as Thompson logging only that much time would warrant the max would be ludicrous. Fortunately for Thompson and Paul, they needn't make that claim; all that matters in this case is the threat of the qualifying offer and what comes after. The very possibility of losing Thompson by way of a lucrative offer in more accommodating cap conditions down the road creates a form of leverage that must be respected.

Thompson's worth is funny in that way. The possibility of him accepting the qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent and (as Paul would tell it) leave next season is a distinctly worse outcome than Cleveland overpaying to retain him. Thompson might not play as much or contribute as much as a max player, but his defensive strengths and effervescent playing style make him an important ingredient to a contender. If there is a time for the Cavs to spend, it's now. Owner Dan Gilbert has already signed off on what will be an exorbitant roster and luxury tax bill for the sake of fielding the best team possible. Giving Thompson the contract he wants would serve as an extension of that same philosophy—a statement of worth far more complex than comparing bottom-line output to dollar amount paid.

• MORE NBA: Cavs incomplete without Thompson | J.R. Smith takes a loss

The Cavs need Thompson. This is part of the reason why good teams, even those that aren't aging into irrelevance, can sometimes crumble away beneath the pressures of contention. Franchises of a certain competitive caliber tend to retain and reward core players, even as the team's success drives the price of those players upward. Thompson is in a position to command a sizable salary because he played quite well for the Eastern Conference champions. Were he to ultimately find that salary elsewhere, the Cavs would face a gap in their roster with no means to fill it. Factor in Mozgov's own impending free agency (he'll hit the market next summer and will earn a significant raise over his current $5 million salary) and Cleveland, for as stacked as it seems, would face real, considerable risk.

Such is the nature of building a winning team in a soft salary cap league. Very few franchises are able to construct elite-level rosters with built-in financial flexibility. More often, competing for a title demands stacking salary on salary with little in the way of a safety net. Losing Thompson wouldn't cave the Cavs' whole operation, though it could throw Cleveland off balance as it walks an already perilous tightrope. So much has to go right for a team to win a championship and every player like Thompson—who can slide in to fill multiple positions, defend in a way that others on the team can't, and shape games with his energy—helps to adjust the odds slightly in his team's favor.

Should he get his $94 million, Thompson would be overpaid by any reliable, objective metric. A max player he is not. His worth to the Cavs, however, would be implicitly stated on that scale for fear of what losing him could mean. Basketball value, while absolute in concept, blurs to the haze of circumstance.

Photos of Sports Illustrated’s Top 100 NBA Players of 2016

Top 100 NBA Players of 2016

#100 — Giannis Antetokounmpo

John W. McDonough for Sports Illustrated

Bucks | Forward | Last year: —

#99 — Wesley Matthews

Mavericks | Guard | Last year: 72

#98 — Donatas Motiejunas

Rockets | Forward | Last year: —

#97 — Nerlens Noel

76ers | Forward | Last year: —

#96 — Josh Smith

Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images

Clippers | Forward | Last year: 53

#95 — Roy Hibbert

Lakers | Center | Last year: 52

#94 — Reggie Jackson

Pistons | Guard | Last year: —

#93 — J.J. Redick

Clippers | Guard | Last year: 93

#92 — Lou Williams

Lakers | Guard | Last year: —

#91 — Andrew Wiggins

Timberwolves | Forward | Last year: —

#90 — Taj Gibson

Bulls | Forward | Last year: 75

#89 — Amir Johnson

Celtics | Forward | Last year: 71

#88 — Isaiah Thomas

Celtics | Guard | Last year: 90

#87 — Ricky Rubio

Timberwolves | Guard | Last year: 87

#86 — Kenneth Faried

Nuggets | Forward | Last year: 77

#85 — Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Hornets | Forward | Last year: —

#84 — Robin Lopez

Knicks | Center | Last year: 82

#83 — Deron Williams

Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

Mavericks | Guard | Last year: 45

#82 — Joe Johnson

Nets | Guard | Last year: 51

#81 — DeMarre Carroll

Raptors | Forward | Last year: —

#80 — George Hill

Pacers | Guard | Last year: —

#79 — Brandon Knight

Suns | Guard | Last year: —

#78 — Tobias Harris

Magic | Forward | Last year: —

#77 — Jonas Valanciunas

Raptors | Center | Last year: 80

#76 — Andrew Bogut

Warriors | Center | Last year: 65

#75 — Thaddeus Young

Nets | Forward | Last year: 69

#74 — Tiago Splitter

Hawks | Center | Last year: 70

#73 — Danilo Gallinari

Nuggets | Forward | Last year: 62

#72 — Ryan Anderson

Pelicans | Forward | Last year: 59

#71 — Paul Pierce

Clippers | Forward | Last year: 46

#70 — Tristan Thompson

Cavaliers | Forward | Last year: —

#69 — Hassan Whiteside

Heat | Center | Last year: —

#68 — Timofey Mozgov

Cavaliers | Center | Last year: —

#67 — Nikola Vucevic

Magic | Center | Last year: 89

#66 — Chandler Parsons

Mavericks | Forward | Last year: 56

#65 — Trevor Ariza

Rockets | Forward | Last year: 83

#64 — Markieff Morris

Suns | Forward | Last year: —

#63 — Marcin Gortat

Wizards | Center | Last year: 58

#62 — Bradley Beal

Wizards | Guard | Last year: 76

#61 — DeMar DeRozan

Raptors | Guard | Last year: 61

#60 — Derrick Rose

Bulls | Guard | Last year: 23

#59 — Jrue Holiday

Pelicans | Guard | Last year: 50

#58 — Tyreke Evans

Pelicans | Forward | Last year: 84

#57 — Monta Ellis

Pacers | Guard | Last year: 66

#56 — Luol Deng

Heat | Forward | Last year: 55

#55 — Nicolas Batum

Hornets | Forward | Last year: 43

#54 — Kobe Bryant

Lakers | Guard | Last year: 24

#53 — Tony Parker

Spurs | Guard | Last year: 15

#52 — Rudy Gay

Kings | Forward | Last year: 67

#51 — Ty Lawson

Rockets | Guard | Last year: 44

#50 — Danny Green

Spurs | Guard | Last year: 96

#49 — Zach Randolph

Grizzlies | Forward | Last year: 42

#48 — Greg Monroe

Bucks | Forward | Last year: 68

#47 — Al Jefferson

Hornets | Center | Last year: 26

#46 — Kyle Korver

Hawks | Forward | Last year: 74

#45 — Khris Middleton

Bucks | Forward | Last year: —

#44 — Andre Iguodala

Warriors | Forward | Last year: 29

#43 — Joakim Noah

Bulls | Center | Last year: 17

#42 — Goran Dragic

Heat | Guard | Last year: 35

#41 — Jeff Teague

Hawks | Guard | Last year: 92

#40 — Pau Gasol

Bulls | Forward | Last year: 49

#39 — Rudy Gobert

Jazz | Center | Last year: —

#38 — Brook Lopez

Nets | Center | Last year: 36

#37 — Derrick Favors

Jazz | Forward | Last year: 79

#36 — Tyson Chandler

Suns | Center | Last year: 39

#35 — Andre Drummond

Pistons | Center | Last year: 37

#34 — Kyle Lowry

Raptors | Guard | Last year: 30

#33 — Eric Bledsoe

Suns | Guard | Last year: 33

#32 — Paul Millsap

Hawks | Forward | Last year: 34

#31 — Gordon Hayward

Jazz | Forward | Last year: 57

#30 — Dwyane Wade

Heat | Guard | Last year: 20

#29 — DeAndre Jordan

Clippers | Center | Last year: 38

#28 — Dirk Nowitzki

Mavericks | Forward | Last year: 14

#27 — Mike Conley

Grizzlies | Guard | Last year: 32

#26 — Klay Thompson

Warriors | Guard | Last year: 54

#25 — Serge Ibaka

Thunder | Forward | Last year: 19

#24 — Damian Lillard

Trail Blazers | Guard | Last year: 22

#23 — Kyrie Irving

Cavaliers | Guard | Last year: 21

#22 — Chris Bosh

Heat | Forward | Last year: 18

#21 — Al Horford

Hawks | Center | Last year: 25

#20 — Paul George

Pacers | Forward | Last year: —

#19 — Dwight Howard

Rockets | Center | Last year: 9

#18 — Jimmy Butler

Bulls | Guard | Last year: 98

#17 — Kevin Love

Cavaliers | Forward | Last year: 7

#16 — Draymond Green

Warriors | Forward | Last year: —

#15 — Carmelo Anthony

Knicks | Forward | Last year: 11

#14 — DeMarcus Cousins

Kings | Center | Last year: 27

#13 — John Wall

Wizards | Guard | Last year: 31

#12 — LaMarcus Aldridge

Spurs | Forward | Last year: 12

#11 — Tim Duncan

Spurs | Forward | Last year: 5

#10 — Kawhi Leonard

Spurs | Forward | Last year: 28

#9 — Marc Gasol

Grizzlies | Center | Last year: 16

#8 — Blake Griffin

Clippers | Forward | Last year: 10

#7 — Russell Westbrook

Thunder | Guard | Last year: 4

#6 — Chris Paul

Clippers | Guard | Last year: 3

#5 — James Harden

Rockets | Guard | Last year: 13

#4 — Stephen-Curry

Warriors | Guard | Last year: 8

#3 — Anthony Davis

Pelicans | Forward | Last year: 4

#2 — Kevin Durant

Thunder | Forward | Last year: 2

#1 — LeBron James

Cavaliers | Forward | Last year: 1