2016 NBA playoffs: Picks, best series and more for Western matchups

What's the most intriguing matchup in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs? Who is the biggest X-factor? Who will win? SI.com previews the action.

Ben Golliver | Apr 15, 2016

2016 NBA playoffs: Picks, best series and more for Western matchups /

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If you’re looking for potential upsets in the first round, you’re better off turning your attention to the East. Out West, the playoff bracket is loaded with championship contenders who will enter their first–round matchups as heavy favorites.

In fact, the three most lopsided first-round series—as judged by the regular-season point differential split between the two teams—are all in the West. Even the conference’s most balanced series on paper, the No. 4 Clippers vs. the No. 5 Blazers, is more lopsided than three of the East’s four series.

While the West playoffs will have the league’s two most dominant teams (Warriors and Spurs), the presumptive 2016 MVP (Stephen Curry) and four other strong candidates (Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, and the top two Defensive Player of the Year nominees (Leonard and Draymond Green), the intensity and competitiveness likely won’t pick up until the second round. In the meantime, the next two weeks should offer a nice taste of what’s to come, as the conference’s titans tune up against unusually middling fare.

• MORE NBA: East playoff preview | Rankings: Most fun first-round series?

Most intriguing series: (4) Clippers–(5) Blazers

There’s a little something for everyone in this series, which is arguably more balanced than the 9-win difference (53 vs. 44) between the two teams’ records indicates. Since Christmas, when Clippers forward Blake Griffin was lost to a leg injury, L.A. compiled a 36-16 record while Portland went 33-18. And while the Clippers won the season series 3-1, they needed a J.J. Redick buzzer beater to avoid going to overtime at home last month.

Love offense? L.A. and Portland both rank in the top seven in offensive efficiency, they both rank in the top eight in three-pointers, and they’re both led by dynamic All-NBA point guards in Chris Paul and Damian Lillard.

Love drama? Coaches Doc Rivers and Terry Stotts have been engaged in minor feuds all season long, bickering over minutia like improperly filled out lineup cards and bench celebrations.

Love gamesmanship? Stotts will enter the series knowing that his frontcourt personnel are facing an uphill battle against DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin. Portland may look to work around its roster limitations by playing Hack-a-Shaq on Jordan and looking to use small ball, spread-oriented looks to create mismatches against L.A.’s traditional bigs.

• ROUNDTABLE: Where does Kobe Bryant rank in NBA all time?

Love pressure narratives? The “Can’t get over the hump” Clippers will bear all of the pressure against the “Not even supposed to be here” Blazers. After four consecutive playoff trips with no trips to the conference finals to show for it, L.A. entered the season with both title hopes and the knowledge that another disappointing exit could lead to major changes to its core. Portland, meanwhile, retooled on the fly with a young and largely unproven roster after losing four starters from last year’s squad. They’re playing with house money and led by two guards, Lillard and CJ McCollum, who would love nothing better than to steal some national attention by playing spoiler.

Thanks, but no thanks: (2) Spurs–(7) Grizzlies

Remarkably, the Warriors set an alltime NBA record for most wins (73), and yet they won’t enter the first-round with the most lopsided matchup. That designation goes to San Antonio, who nipped at Golden State’s heels all year and finished with a +10.6 point differential, a top-10 all-time mark and just a fraction behind the defending champs. The Spurs boast the league’s best defense—thanks to Leonard and Tim Duncan—and a No. 3 offense that leans on Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Parker and others.

Compounding the inequity: a rash of injuries has decimated the Grizzlies, giving this match-up a “legends versus no-namers” vibe. Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and midseason acquisition Mario Chalmers will all miss the playoffs, leaving coach Dave Joerger to make do with the likes of Jordan Farmar, Lance Stephenson and a bunch of non-household names like Xavier Munford, Jarell Martin and JaMychal Green. The Grizzlies not only enter the postseason with the worst point differential (-2.2) of the 16 playoff teams, that mark has slipped to -4.7 since the All-Star break, which ranks No. 25 league-wide.

• MORE NBA: Top 10 game-winners of the 2015–16 NBA season

The head–to–head matchup provides zero cause for optimism for the Grizzlies, as the Spurs swept the season series 4-0 and won by an average of 12.5 points. In their last postseason match-up, San Antonio swept Memphis 4-0 in the 2013 Western Conference finals. All signs point to this being a quick, tidy and thorough butt-whooping.

What to watch: Series by series

No. 1 Warriors vs. No. 8 Rockets: Any signs of a let-up?

After completing its historic season, Golden State didn’t get the benefit of an extra day to recover from the chase. Instead, the Warriors will open their series against the Rockets on Saturday with an early 3:30 p.m. ET start. Although these two teams met in the 2015 Western Conference finals, with Golden State prevailing in five games, this isn’t a conventional rematch.

Houston has struggled with its defensive effort and focus all season, leaving it especially vulnerable to Golden State’s signature explosions. It’s possible that the only team that can beat Golden State in this series is itself. Perhaps the Rockets will be able to avoid a sweep and extend the series if the defending champs get loose with the ball or struggle to muster full energy after months of chasing the 1996 Bulls.

• MORE NBA: Grades for all 30 teams | SI's season awards | Playoff schedule

No. 2 Spurs vs. No. 7 Grizzlies: How does LaMarcus Aldridge look?

Aldridge has played at an All–NBA and All–Star level in his first season with the Spurs, but he does face some questions heading into the postseason.

First, he sustained a dislocated finger on his shooting hand during a loss to the Warriors last week. Will he be affected by the injury during what should be his best shot at a deep postseason run during his 10–year career?

Second, Aldridge struggled mightily against the Grizzlies during the 2015 playoffs, shooting just 33% from the field as his Blazers lost in the first round in five games. Historically, Zach Randolph, Memphis’s physical power forward and a former teammate of Aldridge’s in Portland, has succeeded in making Aldridge uncomfortable and limiting his effectiveness. The good news for Aldridge: San Antonio should be able to easily win the series, even if he loses his individual match-up.

GALLERY: SI's 100 best NBA Finals photos

100 Best NBA Finals Photos

2016

LeBron James holds up the shiny gold trophy in what might be his sweetest championship yet, the one he is so proudly bringing home to his native northeast Ohio just as he promised to do when he returned to the Cavaliers two summers earlier.

2015

LeBron James loses the ball as he tries to fend off Andre Iguodala in Game 1 between the Warriors and Cavaliers. Golden State won the game and the series 4-2. Iguodala became the first player to win the Finals MVP award without having started every game in the series. He was tasked with guarding LeBron, who made only 38.1 percent of his shots when Iguodala was in the game.

2015

Steph Curry goes to the left hand against J.R. Smith to score two of his 25 points in Game 6. The Warriors defeated the Cavs 105-97 to clinch the franchise's first NBA title since 1975.

2014

A year after an excruciating loss to the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals, Tim Duncan and the Spurs got their revenge, winning the title in five games.

2013

Ray Allen lets loose a series-changing three over Tony Parker in Game 6. With Miami down 3-2 in the series, it was the veteran Allen who sent the game to overtime and an eventual Heat victory. With a huge momentum boost, Miami went on to win the series.

2013

LeBron James led Miami to the finals for a third straight year and to a second consecutive title, duking it out with the Spurs for seven games. James won his second Finals MVP award with another series of stellar showings.

2012

LeBron James soars over Kevin Durant in Game 3. James got the championship monkey off his back in a big way, averaging 28.6 points, 10.2 rebounds and 7.4 assists in the series.

2012

LeBron James battled cramps in Game 4 and was unable to finish out a 104-98 Heat victory. He still had 26 points, nine rebounds and 12 assists.

2011

Dirk Nowitzki avoids traffic to drop in the game-winner for Dallas in Game 2. Nowitzki's clutch shot capped a furious 15-point fourth-quarter Mavs comeback. Dallas would knock off favored Miami and the "Big Three" of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in six games in a rematch of the 2006 Finals.

2010

Kobe Bryant looks to shoot over Rajon Rondo in Game 6 between the Lakers and Celtics. Kobe averaged 29 points per game in the series, en route to his second consecutive Finals MVP award.

2010

Kevin Garnett bodies a driving Kobe Bryant in a tight Game 7. The Celtics-Lakers rivalry was renewed in a back-and-forth series that saw Los Angeles come out on top for a second straight title.

2010

Pau Gasol owned the paint in Game 7 with 19 points and 18 rebounds to push the Lakers to an 83-79 win.

2009

Pau Gasol hugs Kobe Bryant near the end of a series-clinching Game 5. The duo was crucial to L.A.'s five-game victory over Orlando, with Bryant named Finals MVP and winning his first title out of Shaquille O'Neal's shadow.

2008

Averaging nearly 22 points per game, Finals MVP Paul Pierce paired with offseason acquisitions Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to return the Celtics to their championship ways against the rival Lakers. The win marked the first title for each of the three stars.

2007

San Antonio's Tony Parker was named Most Valuable Player of the series, averaging 24.5 points per game in the sweep.

2007

Tim Duncan and the Spurs spoiled LeBron James' first Finals, limiting him to 35.6% shooting and efficiently sweeping the series.

2006

Dwyane Wade, at just 24 years old, catalyzed the Heat past Dallas in six, memorably scoring 42 points and leading a comeback from a 13-point deficit with six minutes left in Game 3. The series marked Wade's arrival as a superstar, as he averaged nearly 35 points and eight rebounds per game to lead Miami to its first title.

2005

Ben Wallace and Manu Ginobili battle for a loose ball in Game 5 between the Pistons and Spurs. The past two NBA champs traded blows in a tough series that went seven games, with San Antonio coming out on top.

2005

Robert Horry, better known as "Big Shot Rob," buries the three to win Game 5 for San Antonio.

2005-0623-Tim-Duncan-Rasheed-Wallace-Ben-Wallace-017002501_0.jpg — John W. McDonough

Tim Duncan drives to basket against Rasheed Wallace in Game 7 between the Spurs and Pistons. Duncan scored a game-high 25 points and 11 rebounds as he led San Antonio to their third title and won his third Finals MVP award.

2004

Shaquille O'Neal of the Lakers and Rasheed Wallace of the Pistons grapple for a rebound. Detroit impressively dispatched L.A.'s O'Neal-Kobe Bryant tandem in five games.

2004

Chauncey Billups hoists the trophy as the Pistons celebrate their championship. With a penchant for making shots in critical moments, Billups was named Finals MVP.

2003

David Robinson of the Spurs dunks on Jason Collins of the Nets in Game 5. San Antonio took the series in six games, with Robinson teaming up with the core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili winning their first title together.

2003

Finals MVP Tim Duncan came up huge for San Antonio in the Game 6 series-clincher with 21 points, 20 boards, 10 assists and eight blocks.

2002

Shaquille O'Neal and the Lakers blew away the Jason Kidd-led Nets in a four-game sweep. O'Neal averaged more than 36 points per game as L.A. took home a third straight title.

2001

Shaquille O'Neal was simply too much for Philadelphia to handle in the series, winning his second straight Finals MVP honors and contributing a near quadruple-double in Game 2 with 28 points, 20 rebounds, nine assists and eight blocks.

2001

Kobe Bryant of the Lakers avoids 76ers center Dikembe Mutombo in Game 4. Though still overshadowed by Shaquille O'Neal, the 22-year-old Bryant continued to shine in his own right, averaging nearly 25 points for the series.

2001

Sixers guard Allen Iverson dribbles the ball against Tyronn Lue of the Lakers during Game 1. Bolstered by the dynamic Iverson's 48 points, Philadelphia pulled off an upset, 107-101.

2000

Ron Harper of the Lakers shoots over Pacers center Rik Smits in Game 4.

2000

Reggie Miller averaged more than 24 points per game, but couldn't shoot Indiana past Shaq and the Lakers in what would be the only Finals appearance of his career.

2000

Kobe Bryant drives to the basket against Dale Davis and Reggie Miller in Game 6 between the Lakers and Pacers.

2000

Shaq and Kobe celebrate after winning Game 6 against the Pacers for the championship.

1999

Spurs center David Robinson blocks Marcus Camby of the Knicks in Game 4. San Antonio, led by Robinson and a young Tim Duncan, took up the mantle post-Jordan and defeated the Knicks in five games for its first title.

1999

Marcus Camby of the Knicks blocks Spurs guard Avery Johnson in Game 3. Johnson would have the last laugh, hitting a last-minute shot to close out New York in Game 5.

1998

Michael Jordan drains the game-winning jumper over Bryon Russell of the Utah Jazz in Game 6. It would be MJ's last shot as a Bull, but not his last in the NBA — he unretired, of course, in 2001.

1997

Karl Malone of the Jazz dunks over Dennis Rodman and Ron Harper of the Bulls in Game 1. Malone and point guard John Stockton posed a challenge to the Bulls with their efficiency, but Michael Jordan and company found ways to win yet again.

1997

Game 5, which came to be known as "The Flu Game," saw Michael Jordan compete through severe illness to come up big for Chicago. Jordan brought the Bulls back from a 16-point deficit, improbably scoring 38 points in a 90-88 win after spending much of the past 24 hours confined to his hotel bed. At the end of the game, Jordan collapsed into Scottie Pippen's arms in what became an iconic moment.

1997

In Game 6, it wasn't Jordan or Pippen (though they combined for 62 points) but rather Bulls guard Steve Kerr who sealed Chicago's fifth title, with a 17-footer.

1996

Dennis Rodman grabs a rebound against the Sonics in Game 1. Rodman averaged nearly 14 boards per game in the playoffs for the Bulls, who acquired the power forward from San Antonio before the season.

1996

Scottie Pippen of the Bulls and Sam Perkins of the Sonics battle for a rebound. Pippen led Chicago in assists on the series, and the Bulls took their fourth championship, emboldened by Jordan's return from a two-year retirement.

1995

Hakeem Olajuwon averaged nearly 33 points on the series to bolster the Rockets to a second straight title in a four-game sweep.

1995

Clyde Drexler scored 25 points in a Game 3 win that all but sealed the series.

1994

Hakeem Olajuwon was named Finals MVP, averaging nearly 33 points for the series to bolster the Rockets to their first title, in a four-game sweep.

1994

Star centers Hakeem Olajuwon of the Rockets and Patrick Ewing of the Knicks duked it out in 1994 in a series that went seven games.

1994

In Game 6, Olajuwon blocked a potential game-winning three by Knicks guard John Starks to secure the win and send the series to a final game.

1993

Michael Jordan battles Suns guard Kevin Johnson beneath the hoop.

1993

Suns star Charles Barkley celebrates Phoenix's Game 5 win. Though "Sir Charles" averaged 27.3 points and 13 rebounds, it wasn't enough to lift the Suns past Chicago. Years later, he would admit the series made him realize Jordan was the superior player.

1993

Scottie Pippen of the Bulls drives to the basket against the Suns. Pippen averaged 21.2 points, 9.2 rebounds and 7.7 assists in the series.

1992

Michael Jordan and the Bulls appeared in their second Finals to face Clyde Drexler and the Portland Trail Blazers. The debate about who was better between MJ and Clyde was effectively silenced as Jordan hit six first-half threes in Game 1, famously shrugging at the broadcast table after hitting the sixth one. Jordan's dominance set the tone for the series.

1991

Michael Jordan skies for a dunk over Lakers center Vlade Divac in Game 2, a 107-86 Chicago win. Jordan scored 33 points on 15-of-18 shooting, including his famous hand-switching layup to lead the Bulls.

1991

With his parents at his side, Michael Jordan holds the Chicago Bulls' first-ever championship trophy after defeating the Los Angeles Lakers in five games.

1990

Joe Dumars of the Pistons defends Terry Porter of the Trail Blazers in Game 1. The backcourt of Isiah Thomas (27.6 points per game) and Dumars (20.6) propelled Detroit to the championship in five games. Vinnie Johnson hit the series-clinching jumper at the end of Game 5.

1989

Pistons forward Dennis Rodman snatches a board against the Lakers. Detroit ended L.A.'s bid for a third straight title with a four-game sweep after Magic Johnson injured his hamstring early in Game 2.

1988

A new challenger emerged from the Eastern Conference as Detroit's "Bad Boys," starring point guard Isiah Thomas took on the Lakers. With Detroit up 3-2 going into Game 6, Thomas scored 25 gritty third-quarter points playing on a sprained ankle. It wouldn't be enough — L.A. won Game 6 103-102, with 28 points from James Worthy.

1988

In Game 7 James Worthy (42) again shouldered the load for Los Angeles, recording a triple-double with 26 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists to secure another Lakers title and Finals MVP accolades.

1987

Boston, L.A., Bird and Johnson would meet in the Finals for the last time in 1987. Los Angeles won in six games with the core of Johnson, Abdul-Jabbar and Worthy again proving to be the cream of the crop.

1987

Magic Johnson drains his famous junior sky hook over Robert Parish and Kevin McHale to win Game 4 for the Lakers at the buzzer. Johnson was named Finals MVP.

1986

Larry Bird battles Hakeem Olajuwon under the hoop. The Celtics would win their second title in three straight finals appearances, paced by the dominant Bird (24 points, 9.7 rebounds and 9.5 assists per game), who posted a triple-double in the series-clinching Game 6.

1985

Rival stars Magic Johnson of the Lakers and Larry Bird of the Celtics battle beneath the rim in Game 1 of the 1985 Finals. L.A. pulled the series out in six games thanks to vintage play from 37-year-old Kareem Abdul Jabbar.

1984

Kevin McHale of the Celtics delivers an extremely hard foul on Lakers forward Kurt Rambis in Game 4. The Boston-Los Angeles rivalry was reignited with an epic seven-game clash between the teams.

1984

Los Angeles forward James Worthy rises to score over Boston's Larry Bird during a 119-108 Game 6 Lakers victory.

1983

Julius Irving of the Sixers soars to the rim in their third finals matchup with the Lakers in four seasons. This time Philadelphia would prevail in a four-game sweep.

1983

Finals MVP Moses Malone was dominant in Philadelphia's sweep of Los Angeles, averaging 25.8 points and 18 rebounds per game while outplaying L.A. center Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

1982

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and the Lakers squared off against Julius Erving and the Sixers in a rematch of the 1980 finals. The Lakers once again prevailed in six games.

1982

Magic Johnson attacks the hoop against the Sixers. Johnson fell just short of averaging a triple-double in the six-game series, with 16.2 points, 10.8 rebounds and 8 assists per game and winning MVP honors.

1981

In 1981 it was Larry Bird's Celtics establishing themselves against the Rockets and dominant center Moses Malone.

1981

Moses Malone averaged 22.2 points and 16.3 rebounds for the series, which the Celtics won.

1981

Boston Celtics owner Red Auerbach celebrates with the trophy and his team after beating the Houston Rockets in six games behind Finals MVP Cedric Maxwell and star Larry Bird.

1980

Julius Erving soars and stretches for what would become an iconic reverse layup in Game 4. The Sixers tied the series with a 105-102 win at home.

1980

Philadelphia's Darryl Dawkins battles Los Angeles Lakers defenders on his way to the rim. "Chocolate Thunder" led the Sixers in scoring in their only two wins of the series.

1980

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar dunks against Julius Erving in Game 5 between the Lakers and Sixers.

1980

Magic Johnson's 42 points, 15 rebounds and 7 assists in Game 6 sealed the series for the Lakers, sparking a 123-107 win. The versatile Johnson memorably started the game at center for the injured Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in one of the greatest games in playoff history.

1979

Lonnie Shelton of the Sonics battles Wes Unseld of the Bullets during the 1979 Finals. Unseld led Washington to a title over Seattle the previous year, but the Sonics stuck this one out behind their high-scoring backcourt of Gus Williams and Dennis Johnson.

1979

Jack Sikma of the Supersonics celebrates after the series-winning Game 5 against the Washington Bullets. It would be Seattle's lone championship in franchise history.

1978

Elvin Hayes of the Washington Bullets watches the ball on the rim. Averaging 20.7 points and 11.9 rebounds, Hayes led Washington to its only title in franchise history.

1977

Julius Erving soars to the basket for a dunk in Game 2 between the 76ers and Trail Blazers.

1977

Bill Walton of the Trail Blazers contests a shot by Doug Collins of the 76ers. Walton galvanized the Blazers, who won the series in six games behind his Finals MVP-winning 18.5 points and 19.0 rebounds per game.

1976

Gar Heard of the Suns releases the game-tying shot at the double-overtime buzzer against the Boston Celtics in Game 5. Boston prevailed 128-126 in the third OT, and took the series in six.

1975

The underdog Warriors were bolstered by a red-hot Rick Barry, who led the team in a 4-0 sweep of the Bullets. Barry averaged 29.5 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds and 3.5 steals in the series.

1974

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar paced the Bucks, averaging 32.6 points per game and deploying his signature sky hook to seal Game 6, but the Celtics would pull it out in a seventh game.

1973

The Lakers and Knicks clashed in a rematch of the previous year, but this time it was New York in five, and Knicks center Willis Reed (19), not L.A.'s Wilt Chamberlain (center), named MVP (16.4 points, 9.6 rebounds).

1973

Knicks Dave DeBusschere (with ball) and Phil Jackson (18) in action against Lakers Jim McMillian and Mel Counts (31) during Game 3. The Knicks would win 87-83.

1973

New York Knicks coach Red Holzman celebrates on the sidelines during Game 5. Earl Monroe scored 23 points for the Knicks in the series-clincher.

1972

Lakers center Wilt Chamberlain took home Finals MVP honors as the Lakers defeated the Knicks in five games and won their first title since moving to Los Angeles. Chamberlain averaged 19.4 points and 23.2 rebounds on the series.

1971

Oscar Robertson led Milwaukee on a 4-0 sweep of Baltimore in his first season joining up with Lew Alcindor and the Bucks. Robertson had 30 points in the series-clincher.

1971

Lew Alcindor lofts one of his signature hook shots. Alcindor won the Finals MVP award, averaging 27 points and 18.5 rebounds in the four-game Milwaukee sweep.

1970

Jerry West of the Lakers launches a shot against the Knicks. West drained a dramatic, desperation 63-footer as time expired in Game 3 to send things to overtime. The Lakers went on to lose that game and dropped the series to New York, 4-3.

1970

In Game 7 of the 1970 finals, injured Knicks center Willis Reed made a dramatic surprise entrance, scoring the first two baskets of the game in front of a packed Madison Square Garden crowd.

1970

Reed got the crowd excited, but it was Walt "Clyde" Frazier, whose 36 points and 19 assists propelled the Knicks past the Lakers 113-99 to win the championship.

1969

Bill Russell attempts to block Jerry West in Game 3 between the Celtics and Lakers. The Lakers were heavily favored (West averaged 38 points in the series on a squad that also had Wilt Chamberlain) and jumped out to an early 2-0 lead, but the Celtics came back to hand player-coach Bill Russell his final championship.

1969

Sam Jones of the Celtics dribbles around Jerry West of the Lakers. Jones would hit the game-winner in Game 4 of the 1969 finals to even the series at two games. Boston would go on to take the title in seven.

1968

Lakers guard Jerry West drives past Celtics center Bill Russell in Game 6. Boston went on to a 124-109 win at the Forum to clinch the series 4-2.

1966

Bill Russell leaps to block Elgin Baylor. Russell and the Celtics were a constant thorn in the Lakers side, defeating them for five of their eight straight titles (1959-66).

1966

Bill Russell holds a corsage sent to the dressing room as he celebrates with Celtics coach Red Auerbach after defeating the Lakers, 95-93, in Game 7 to win their eighth-straight NBA championship.

1962

Jerry West of the Lakers elevates for a jumper in Game 7 against the Celtics. West scored 35 points, but Boston would win the game and the series.

1962

Celtics point guard Bob Cousy (14) throws a no-look pass in Game 7. Later that game, he would famously elude several Lakers and dribble out the clock to deliver Boston the title.

1962

In one of the greatest winner-take-all games in NBA history, the Celtics beat the Lakers for the title, 110-107 in overtime, behind Bill Russell's 30 points and 40 rebounds.

1962

Elgin Baylor of the Lakers erupted for a Finals-record 61 points and grabbed 22 boards against the Celtics in a 126-121 Game 5 win at Boston Garden. The Lakers took a 3-2 series lead in what became a classic first finals meeting between L.A. and Boston.

1957

Bill Russell of the Celtics grabs a rebound over Cliff Hagan of the Hawks in Game 5 of the 1957 finals. The Celtics won the game 124-109 and took the series in seven in Russell's rookie year after acquiring his rights in a trade with ... St. Louis.

1949

Lakers center George Mikan (99) gets his hair mussed by teammates after leading Minneapolis to its first-ever championship. Mikan set a Madison Square Garden scoring record with 48 points in a 101-74 victory over the Knickerbockers. The Lakers' 101 points also set an all-time team high scoring mark at the Garden.

No. 3 Thunder vs. No. 6 Mavericks: OKC’s late-game lineups and execution

From a pure talent standpoint, it’s hard to pick against a healthy Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in the first round, especially when they’re facing a mediocre Dallas team without good individual defensive matchups for either of the Thunder’s stars.

There’s a chance, however, that this series is more complicated than simply, “OKC’s superstars are simply too much.” Keep an eye on two things: the Thunder’s lack of postseason experience and their late–game struggles this season.

On the experience front, Durant, Westbrook and Serge Ibaka have been through plenty of battles together over the years. The same can’t be said for their supporting cast. Dion Waiters, Kyle Singler, Anthony Morrow and rookie Cameron Payne have a combined zero career postseason minutes. Andre Roberson? Nine. Enes Kanter? Forty three. Even starting center Steven Adams has just 331 from the 2014 playoffs, when he was a reserve. That’s an awful lot of untested pieces to put on the court against well-oiled machines like the Warriors and the Spurs. Can they make good use of their first-round series repetitions against the Mavericks?

As for the late-game execution, Oklahoma City finished just 22-22 in games that went to clutch situations this year, a .500 winning percentage that was far below other top teams like Golden State, San Antonio, the Clippers and Cleveland. Can first-year coach Billy Donovan find better success constructing functional late-game lineups in the playoffs? Can he hold his own against Dallas’s Rick Carlisle, an experienced coach who has seen it all and will surely have a bunch of tricks up his sleeve?

No. 4 Clippers vs. No. 5 Blazers: The Hoopers’ Family Feud

With the possible exception of James Harden vs. Klay Thompson, the battle between the Clippers’ Chris Paul and the Blazers’ Damian Lillard should be the premier positional matchup in the West’s first round. Although they play different styles, with Paul favoring a more traditional approach and Lillard fitting a score–first mold, both leave huge marks on the offensive end: Paul (19.5 PPG, 10 APG, 4.2 RPG) ranks third among point guards in Offensive Real Plus-Minus, while Lillard (25.1 PPG, 6.8 APG, 4 RPG) ranks fifth.

As it so happens, the two stars appear together in a national advertising campaign for an insurance company. In the “Meet The Hoopers” spot, Paul is the family’s father while Lillard is the baby, and sarcastic quipsters have been quick to note that the casting is reflective of their relationship in head-to-head matchups. Simply put, Paul has sonned Lillard to date, racking up a 9-3 record in 12 games, doing whatever he wants on offense (22.7 PPG, 11.3 APG, 49.5 FG%), and holding Portland’s point guard well below his usual averages (16.5 PPG, 5.9 APG, 37.8 FG%). Remember, however, that Lillard is no stranger to big postseason performances: just ask the 2014 Rockets.

Biggest X-factor: Blake Griffin’s health

During the 2015 playoffs, only three players who advanced out of the first round averaged more minutes per game than Blake Griffin (39.8): Jimmy Butler, LeBron James and Bradley Beal. Those were hard minutes, too, with Griffin regularly running himself to exhaustion as he pushed the ball up the court, battled for rebounds in traffic, shifted between life as a facilitator and a finisher, and absorbed blow after blow on his way to more than seven free throw attempts per game.

That 2015 Griffin is a thing of the past, not the present. The 2016 Griffin has logged just 123 minutes in five appearances since Christmas thanks to a leg injury, which is still causing him some pain, and a broken hand sustained during an off-court incident with a team employee.

• MORE NBA: Big Board 2.0: Simmons still at No. 1 | Mock Draft 2.0

While coach Doc Rivers seemed to be taking a cautious approach to Griffin’s return throughout April, he’ll likely need more than what he’s received from Griffin over the past month if L.A. is going to handle Portland with anything resembling ease. This month, Griffin has averaged 14.6 points and 6.8 rebounds in 24.6 minutes per game, numbers that are sharply down from his 2015 postseason averages (25.5 PPG, 12.7 RPG). While offseason acquisition Paul Pierce and midseason acquisition Jeff Green can help pick up the slack, Griffin’s availability, form and conditioning combine to make him the biggest question mark in the West’s bracket, bar none.

Predictions

Warriors over Rockets in 5. The defending champions have the talent, balance and depth to sweep a disappointing Houston team, but recent home losses to Minnesota and Boston suggest that a slip–up is possible. Just don’t expect more than that.

Spurs over Grizzlies in 4. The sooner that Memphis can get back to licking its wounds and finding a way to lock up Mike Conley to a long-term deal, the better. San Antonio should have no problem squeezing the life out of Memphis’s sub–par attack.

Thunder over Mavericks in 6. Dallas has a way of making first-round series more competitive than they might appear to be on paper. The loss of Chandler Parsons to a knee injury will ultimately make life too difficult for Rick Carlisle, who has no great answers to either Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant.

Clippers over Blazers in 6. While this looks like the most interesting and competitive of the four series, Portland has two Achilles heels that could prove to be their undoing. The Blazers are tied with the Grizzlies for the worst road record (16-25) among the postseason field and they’re tied with the Rockets for the worst defense among the 16 playoff teams. Those weaknesses will likely prove fatal in a series in which they open on the road against the league’s No. 6 offense.

Published Apr 15, 2016

BEN GOLLIVER

Ben Golliver is a staff writer for SI.com and has covered the NBA for various outlets since 2007. The native Oregonian and Johns Hopkins University graduate currently resides in Los Angeles.