Are the NBA Finals Already Over?
Is it time to write off the Heat against the Lakers in the NBA Finals? Los Angeles dominated Miami in Game 1, 116–98, with Anthony Davis finishing with 34 points and nine rebounds and LeBron James with 25 points, 13 rebounds and nine assists.
The Heat also announced that Goran Dragic (foot) and Bam Adebayo (neck) are doubtful for Game 2. Should the Heat be in full panic mode? The Crossover staff answers.
Rohan Nadkarni
Look, the Finals are not over. Does the Heat’s 1-0 hole feel like the biggest 1-0 hole ever? Yes. But we don’t know if this series could be further impacted by injury or if Miami’s hobbling players can come back/be more effective sooner than we anticipate. Erik Spoelstra is a different coach than he was in 2014, when Miami was run off the floor by the Spurs. It would be pretty shocking if he didn’t have some kind of adjustment to make Game 2 more competitive. (Maybe it’s more time for Kelly Olynyk? Maybe it’s more zone defense? Maybe it’s more of an emphasis on launching threes?) Again, Miami is obviously going to be limited because of its health. If Game 2 also isn’t close then yes, let’s shovel dirt on the Heat. But there’s no need to bury Miami just yet. The series is teetering and even simply the lineups used Friday night will tell us a lot. Until then, I’ll give Spo and Jimmy Butler the benefit of the doubt and see if they can close the gap before denying their chances completely.
Michael Rosenberg
Let’s put it this way: The Finals as they are currently being contested are not in doubt. The injury-ravaged Heat cannot beat thus Lakers team four times in six tries. Even if Goran Dragic tries to play, that might actually hurt Miami, because it’s hard to imagine he will play well. A torn plantar fascia is a brutal injury. Jimmy Butler wore a wrap around his left ankle/foot—he said he will play, and he is so tough that let’s imagine he will be his usual self. Bam Adebayo is doubtful because of a shoulder and neck injury—again, he might play, and he always plays hard, but that’s a tough injury for a rebounder who needs to guard Anthony Davis in the post. If Davis or LeBron James gets hurt, this answer changes. (And in the last three Finals games, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Dragic, Adebayo and Butler all got injured, so let’s just hope we can get through one without a major injury.) In the meantime, the Heat are far more likely to get swept than push this to six.
What adjustments should Miami make?
Miami doesn’t have much choice—pace and space and hope Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn hit a bunch of threes. The Lakers are so much longer than Miami. Robinson in particular is struggling to get open looks. Herro looks overmatched defensively. Run, hope you make transition threes, and wish for the best.
Jeremy Woo
No, the Finals are not over. I really don’t think there’s anything to microanalyze. Miami’s three best players got injured early in Game 1. No team is managing that on the fly, particularly not against LeBron. Obviously, without knowing anything conclusive about the health of the Heat, Game 2 is as close to must-win as a Game 2 can be—the earlier Miami can extend this series, the better. The Lakers are obviously in a great place right now and will surprise nobody by winning. But categorically speaking, this is not over, because there are at least three games left.
Michael Shapiro
Miami could tinker with a few things in order to hinder Los Angeles, most notably relying more heavily on its zone in an attempt to slow LeBron James and Anthony Davis. It’s unlikely the Lakers’ shooters catch fire quite like they did in Game 1, and packing the paint remains the top priority for Erik Spoelstra’s squad. Will any adjustment be enough? I remain skeptical. This is a superior Lakers team even if both squads are healthy, and the loss of Goran Dragic is relatively devastating. Miami entered the series as an underdog with true shot of pulling off an upset. That opportunity is now out the window.
Melissa Rohlin
Unfortunately, yes. When Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic got hurt, the Heat's already slim chances of beating the Lakers went down the drain. And considering Jimmy Butler is hobbled and the Lakers are making three-pointers, this thing is over. The Heat had a great season. But the Lakers are three swift wins away from tying the Boston Celtics for the most NBA championships (17) in history.
Ben Pickman
Let’s pump the brakes on saying the Finals are over after one game. However, it also can’t be overstated to say that the injuries to Dragic and Adebayo drastically change the landscape of the series. Prior to the series, Jimmy Butler said that Adebayo was the “heart and soul” of the Heat, and the Kentucky product led Miami in both offensive and defensive win shares this postseason. Dragic came out firing on offense this postseason and has taken the most shots on average of any Heat player this playoffs. If the two can’t play in Game 2 or are severely limited both Friday and beyond, then the Heat are in even bigger trouble than they were. Beyond the injuries, though, if Miami wants to stay in the series it needs to do a better job of limiting L.A.’s three-point shooting. The Lakers made 11 three-pointers in the first half of Game 1 and L.A. went on to outshoot the Lakers 39.5% to 31.4% from three in Game 1. We expected Miami to struggle with some of L.A.’s size heading into the series, but if the Heat also struggle to control the Lakers from beyond the arc, the 2020 finals might not extend beyond four or five games.
Robin Lundberg
Yes, the NBA Finals are already over. In fact, I think the only drama remaining is who wins MVP between LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Unfortunately, I just don't see any adjustments Miami can make because it stepped up in weight class and is playing a superior team. AD made them look little, and LeBron will continue to pick apart their defense, especially having gotten a look at it over a full game. And on the other side the Heat simply don't present an overwhelming threat to a defense that has already overcome Damian Lillard, James Harden and Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. I don't doubt that Miami will fight and perhaps it can get one through said spirit but between the Lakers being a great team and the Heat injuries, I'm thinking sweep.
Shandel Richardson
The series isn't over, but I don't see the Heat winning Game 2 without Bam Adebayo or Goran Dragic. It will be tough even if both return at some point in the Finals. If this is going more than four games, it will be up to coach Erik Spoelstra. He is the Heat's only hope until they get healthy again. For starters, they have to defend better at the three-point line to have any chance.
