Where Do the Rockets Go From Here?
It’s been a stark tale of two franchises since the Rockets said goodbye to James Harden in a deal with the Nets just over two months ago.
Brooklyn enters Monday night absolutely cruising in the Eastern Conference, winning 15 of its last 17 despite an extended absence from Kevin Durant. Harden has fit in seamlessly alongside Kyrie Irving, racking up triple doubles with ease as the Nets look like Finals favorites. As for Houston, such an opportunity feels a galaxy away.
The Rockets haven’t just fallen out of title contention without Harden running the show. They’ve plummeted to the bottom of the Western Conference, tallying an astounding 20 straight losses entering Monday night. It takes a special set of circumstances to drop 20 in a row, and it seems as though Houston has checked off every box on the year-from-hell checklist thus far. Leading scorer Christian Wood missed 17 games before returning to the lineup on March 17. John Wall and Victor Oladipo have shared the floor in just 12 contests. Houston has played multiple games with eight or nine active players, at times resembling an intramural squad on the Friday before spring break. No team in the league has suffered from such a lack of cohesion on a night-to-night basis.
The frustration in Houston is building as the losses mount. Sunday’s one-point defeat against Oklahoma City was followed by a despondent Stephen Silas in the postgame press conference, and Wood made sure to note his lack of touches down the stretch. Silas’s ability to keep this team together through a tumultuous year deserves commendation. The circumstances surrounding his first season as a head coach are as difficult as any in recent memory, with the Harden trade preceding a flood of injuries and COVID-19 absences. Silas was able to keep relative harmony across the roster throughout both the Harden drama and P.J. Tucker’s exit from the lineup following the All-Star break. But there’s only so much losing a team can take before the tuning-out process begins.
Houston’s losing streak should end sooner rather than later. The Rockets host the Raptors and Hornets early this week, followed by a pair of games against the Timberwolves. With Wood and Wall presumably healthy and ready to go, there should be a win in there somewhere. Yet the streak is only the most immediate problem for the Rockets. The Finals won’t be a possibility until the middle of this decade. The postseason is a pipe dream this season, and the roster needs some serious tinkering before a potential run to the playoffs in 2021–22. Silas joined the Rockets last summer with two former MVPs on the roster. He now has an aging Wall and an unproven Wood leading the roster. Houston spent a significant chunk of the 2000s without a discernible direction, waiting for the next franchise anchor to arrive. A similar situation is now unfolding.
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Let’s assess where the Rockets currently stand in the aftermath of the Harden trade. Wall is a placeholder to the next era, with a questionable number of games left in his final two-plus seasons in Houston. He’s shown flashes of his former self this season, though he’s missed 14 of 40 games, a number that could balloon as the regular season winds down. Wall can be solid, albeit unspectacular, for Houston as he approaches his 31st birthday. Yet that’s anything but a guarantee considering Wall’s injury history.
Oladipo’s time in Houston could end in the coming days. There’s a slight chance he remains with the Rockets past March 25, but if so, he’s a near-guaranteed sign-and-trade guy this summer. Despite some solid numbers in recent weeks, it’s increasingly evident that Oladipo isn’t in Houston’s long-term plans.
With Oladipo out the door and Wall serving as more of an ancillary long-term piece, where else can the Rockets look for hope? Wood is the central figure in any dose of optimism. He’s been better than advertised offensively after signing a three-year, $41 million deal this offseason, with his contract increasingly looking like a bargain as the year drags on. Wood is as versatile as they come for a frontcourt big, entering Monday night averaging 21.7 points per game on 56% from the field and 40% from three. Wood is scoring a whopping 1.23 points per possession in pick-and-roll situations. He’s shooting 39% on spot-up triples. He’s the most likely future All-Star on the roster by a wide margin.
Nobody else on the roster is a guaranteed building block, though a pair of intriguing youngsters are getting plenty of minutes. Jae’Sean Tate arrived from Australia as an immediate defensive stopper, and he’s shown increasing skill near the rim in recent weeks. Kevin Porter Jr. is the most promising non-Wood Rocket. He’s racked up the highlight plays in his first six games with the Rockets, handling lead playmaking duties with relative aplomb. Miscast as a wing in Cleveland, Porter is serving as Houston’s de facto point guard when not paired with Wall. He excels as a passer in the pick-and-roll, and his creativity is especially evident in transition. Porter doesn’t trust his jumper even a little at this stage in his career, and faint Harden comparisons aside, we just don’t have enough evidence that he can be a true leading man quite yet. Wood, Porter, Tate and a horde of Brooklyn picks isn’t the worst start in the world. Yet there aren’t exactly many teams with a shakier foundation at the moment.
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Landing Cade Cunningham would effectively solve the Rockets’ problems. Not to be reductive here, but it’s the truth. If Cunningham is the real deal as the No. 1 pick (a relatively safe bet) the Rockets would have a face-of-the-franchise guard, a fringe All-Star big and picks and cap space galore. Houston would have to then make the subsequent right decisions to build a legitimate contender, though there should be faith in general manager Rafael Stone to make winning moves on the margins. Landing a star like Cunningham is the hard part.
The picture gets murkier if the Ping-Pong balls don’t go Houston’s way. Land in spots two through four, and a path back into the postseason is at least feasible. The Rockets could select Gonzaga guard Jalen Suggs or G League Ignite wing Jalen Green, or they could potentially try to create a new-era twin towers with Wood and Evan Mobley. Neither of the three aforementioned lottery talents are perfect bets quite like Cunningham, yet they each present plenty of upside. The Rockets fleeced Oklahoma City for Harden nearly a decade ago in a franchise-altering move. Their next star will likely have to arrive the old fashioned way.
Land outside of the top four, and disaster strikes. The ill-fated Westbrook–Chris Paul deal allows the Thunder to swap picks with Houston, barring a top-four lottery finish. Even worse, the Rockets would actually have the worst of Houston's, Oklahoma City's and Miami’s first-round picks. Houston will likely cash in on Milwaukee's and Portland’s first rounders this season, but are three non-lottery picks from the Heat, Blazers and Bucks really going to move the needle? There’s little guarantee on that front.
This is the central problem the Rockets find themselves with after years of building around Harden before having to suddenly dump him. The Thunder could own Houston’s first rounder in 2024 and 2026, and they could have swap rights in 2025 as well as 2021. Last week’s P.J. Tucker trade didn’t net Houston any additional picks, and it’s unlikely major draft capital comes back to the Rockets in an Oladipo deal. Teams aren’t exactly rushing to acquire Eric Gordon. Danuel House's and Ben McLemore’s trade value has collapsed post-Harden. Houston is almost done with the asset accumulation stage. Dealing Oladipo will net another asset or two, but otherwise, there isn’t any more pick capital on the horizon for Stone and Co.
Apologies for the admittedly bleak outlook. The Rockets don’t need to be kicked while they’re down in the midst of a 20-game losing streak. The struggles are wearing on Silas, who entered Houston looking to provide a jolt to the stalling Harden era. He’s instead inherited a roster ill-equipped to compete, with injuries and a pandemic exacerbating his team’s shortcomings.
The Rockets will invariably look more respectable the rest of the way if Wood is in the lineup. Things can only go up from here. Though ultimately, the rest of 2020–21 is pretty ancillary to Houston’s long-term projection. It’s time to fire up those Tankathon simulations and pray to the lottery gods. The Rockets need their luck to turn this summer in order to find a way out of the NBA wilderness.
