Clippers Are a Sleeping Giant in the West

With Paul George back, and Kawhi Leonard on the mend, L.A.’s other team could be the NBA’s most frightening opponent in the playoffs.

I can’t quit the Clippers. Last year, I picked them to win the title. One day after the Bucks did, I went on a podcast and picked the Clippers to win this year’s title. (In October, I wrote a column about how their ceiling was higher than every other team in the Western Conference, which, against common sense, is something I still believe.)

Today, even though they’ve struggled through an injury-riddled season, they’re still the proverbial team nobody wants to play. Even without Kawhi Leonard—whose return is realistic!—just consider last year’s deep playoff run, when they dramatically upset the Jazz, and how better equipped their current rotation is to disrupt expectations. While fully understanding they’re more likely to be eliminated in the first round than return to the conference finals, I also have a hard time conceptualizing four losses in a seven-game series.

The rationale for optimism is straightforward. Paul George was pegged as a spellbinding complementary piece when the Clippers first traded for him. He’s proven to be more than that, a superstar on both ends who can elevate those around him with Grade A shotmaking and playmaking. Ty Lue is Bill Belichick, one of basketball’s shrewdest tacticians with a deep, seasoned, convertible roster on his chessboard.

(Worth noting: The Clippers exist as the polar opposite of a Lakers organization they share Crypto.com Arena with: Their front office is ingenious and money is no object for owner Steve Ballmer, whose commitment to winning can be found in a willingness to add salary at the trade deadline, extend his own talent’s contracts and scoff at the luxury tax—L.A.’s bill for this season is roughly $83 million. Just to get this on the record now, assuming their two superstars are healthy, the Clippers are massive favorites to win it all in 2023 and I’d be shocked if they didn’t raise at least one banner in the next four years.)

Now, the rationale for skepticism is just as clear, especially right now. The Clippers are 39–40 with a negative point differential. They have to win a play-in game to make the playoffs, where Leonard may not participate. Generating quality offense without Leonard has not been a walk in the park. The Clippers are 25th in offensive rating and rank 29th in location effective field goal percentage, meaning they don’t take the type of shots most smart offenses strive for. Instead of driving the ball and putting pressure on the rim, they are jump-shot gluttons—especially when launched off-the-dribble or after 19 jab steps with a hand in their face. They don’t grab offensive rebounds or get to the free-throw line, either. These are reasonable causes for concern.

But that profile was created under circumstances that make it somewhat irrelevant, especially on a team that rolled most of its roster over from last year’s appearance in the Western Conference finals when, without Leonard, they pushed this similarly constructed Suns team to six games. Most .500 teams don’t have that in their memory bank. The Clippers head into the playoffs having deployed 26 starting lineups, with the two most used including Amir Coffey (a third-year wing who logged 16 total minutes for L.A. in last year’s playoffs) and Eric Bledsoe (who hasn’t played a minute since he was traded to the Trail Blazers in February). They’re also deadly from deep, ranking third in corner three-point percentage and fourth on threes above the break. Everyone on the roster except Jackson and George is above league average behind the arc.

Luke Kennard leads the league in three-point shooting. Nicolas Batum can guard all five positions. Robert Covington, who just made 11 threes after taking nine dribbles in an entire game, is another snug fit on both sides of the ball (reports of his demise were premature). Terance Mann attacks and finishes at the rim. Norm Powell, whose return from a left foot injury is imminent, can start or come off the bench as one of the more explosive two-way combo guards in the entire league (and damn near posted 50/40/90 splits in 42 games with the Raptors last season). Assuming they prevail and earn either the seven or eight seed, they’ll enter the playoffs with George being able to average 38-40 minutes per game.

Even without Leonard, they’re something far more than an underdog. Let’s put it in perspective. It’s O.K. to call L.A.’s season a letdown, considering all they gave up in 2019 to go all in right now. But I think of it more as a miracle. The Clippers were built around Leonard and George with players who could accentuate their strengths. Leonard has played zero minutes this season. They were in fifth place when George tore his UCL in late December. On January 31, they settled into eighth place and have been there ever since. Factor in a few important changes to their roster (in comes Powell and Covington; out goes Serge Ibaka, Bledsoe and Justise Winslow), other injuries and the fog of not knowing when or if George or Leonard would take the court again, and what they’ve done is … incredible?

What would the Celtics’ record be this season had Jayson Tatum spent its entirety in a sweatsuit and Jaylen Brown barely played? Take Giannis Antetokounmpo off the Bucks and make Khris Middleton a part-time contributor. We’ve seen the Sixers and Nuggets survive and thrive without their superstar sidekicks all year, now imagine their current states had Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid been out since Christmas?

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L.A.’s playbook had to change in the middle of the season. Massive voids had to be filled by those who ultimately had too much on their plate. (Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris both saw their usage rates spike and their true shooting percentages plummet, though it should also be mentioned that only five players have scored more points in crunch time than Jackson: DeMar DeRozan, Embiid, Jokić, Ja Morant and Trae Young. Jackson is just ahead of Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Tatum, with the usage rate of an All-Star.)

Scoff at the play-in if you’d like, but assuming they’re able to win one game in two chances, the Clippers aren’t at a gaping disadvantage against the Suns or Grizzlies. They personify the growing divide between a prosaic 82-game regular season and the possession-to-possession battles that make up a four-round postseason. The latter is a test of focus, experience, trust and fortitude. It’s where players who like to drive left are forced to go right, where one-dimensional skills that are useful in the middle of January suddenly become points of vulnerability. This iteration of Los Angeles is best suited for that environment, where adaptability is critical and the right temperament can be a deciding factor.

Lue coaches with enough trust in his players to breed the type of confidence that makes them believe they can beat anyone at any time. He balances quarter-to-quarter adjustments and long-view thinking with the full understanding of how different the playoffs are from the regular season. (Also: the Clippers have the second-best defensive rating out of a timeout and the second-best offense in crunch time, which can be read as a testament to how Lue prepares his team.)

Their top-10 defense is suffocating and can size up or down, switch or battle through screens. They’re smart and tough and, including Covington, have four options at center. At once, there’s continuity and untapped potential, with an identity that can best be described as having comfort assuming any identity. (Depth isn’t normally viewed as an advantage in the playoffs, but when you can turn to 11 or 12 guys without any significant fall off it matters. The healthy Clippers have 29-year-old Rodney Hood, who’s three seasons removed from saving Portland in their unforgettable playoff battle against the Nuggets, as their 13th man.)

Even though their roster is mostly unchanged from a year ago, diagramming a proper game plan to slow them down is like jabbing at a puff of smoke. It’s a malleability every roster in the league wants. Camouflage and elusion. When checking off boxes that warrant playoff success, the Clippers don’t leave too many blanks. Their talent and athleticism aren’t overwhelming but it is reliable. They have shooting, wingspans that can cover the horizon, versatility and selflessness. Right or wrong, what I can’t shake is their resolve. They know how to take a punch and don’t get flustered.

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In last year’s first two rounds they survived a Luka Dončić avalanche and their best player’s torn ACL, coming back from a pair of 0–2 deficits with more pressure on their shoulders than any other team competing. It was a seminal turning point and show of resiliency unlike anything in recent times. Considering a rematch of the conference finals may happen in this year’s first round (and is on television tonight), it’s worth revisiting how competitive that series was. Chris Paul missed the first two games of it and Phoenix won both. Game 2 and Game 4 could’ve gone either way, and Ivica Zubac missed Game 6.

This isn’t to take anything from Phoenix’s magical season, but the Clippers wouldn’t head into this year’s showdown feeling inferior. And if they win their first play-in game and get the Grizzlies, it wouldn’t be outlandish to think the Clippers can win, despite real concerns about how they’d stop Memphis on the glass.

All this seems like crazy talk for a team that has been average in almost every way since the trade deadline—12–11, 18th in net rating, 13th in defensive rating and 18th in offensive rating—but there are times when the regular season can be ignored. This qualifies. I’m as bullish about the Clippers as any team in the Western Conference. And if news breaks that Leonard will be making a dramatic return to the floor, best believe they can win it all. It could take a few games for the two-time Finals MVP to shake off some rust, but I can’t imagine picking anyone else.

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