Celtics Have Hands Full With Holiday Ball

How Boston chooses to guard Milwaukee’s star point guard could decide the series.

The Bucks won Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals with defense. Trying to navigate the impenetrable Brook Lopez—whose back surgery might as well have never happened—the Celtics shot 45.5% at the rim and a whopping 44% of all their shots were non-corner threes (a number only topped twice this season: Jan. 6 against the paint-packing Knicks, and last month against … the Bucks).

Milwaukee picked ballhandlers up 90 feet from the rim, invaded personal space and poked balls loose when they it wasn’t ripping them away. (Boston’s 18.6% turnover rate was its ninth-worst mark all season.) Their victory came as proud, battle-tested champions knowing their assignments, understanding who they are and how they have to win.

At the same time, Milwaukee really struggled to score against a Celtics defense that held it to just 101.0 points per 100 possessions. (Boston finished 26–3 this season when it held opponents to that low of an offensive rating.) Isolation basketball is not efficient basketball, particularly when utilized against a team (like Boston) that was built to tempt and then stamp it out. In this series, though, the Bucks have to see hero ball as a necessary evil. The bad news is they won’t have Khris Middleton, a one-on-one specialist whose $177.5 million contract looks like a bargain in matchups exactly like this one. The good news: In addition to having Giannis Antetokounmpo warp matchups all over the floor, Jrue Holiday (who finished with a game-high 25 points) just so happens to be an isolation assassin.

According to Synergy Sports, the Bucks generated 1.105 points per possession when Holiday initiated an isolation this season. That’s fourth out of 69 players who logged at least 100 plays, right ahead of Luka Dončić and behind only Steph Curry, Karl-Anthony Towns and DeMar DeRozan.

Holiday struggled a bit throughout the first round and had mixed results in Game 1. But when he’s able to punish his matchup, either for a self-created bucket or a drive that puts two on the ball and creates open threes for his teammates, Milwaukee’s offense is a completely different animal

The NBA is filled with guards who have a deep bag, Holiday included. But his repertoire is better described as a well-organized toolbox. Every trick, go-to move and counter is nestled just so, easily accessible whenever he needs it. There are stepbacks, sweeping hooks and a shoulder made of cast iron. Holiday can be patient and is happy lifting his man with a shot fake that sends him to the line, but at his best he’s decisive and swift—good things usually happen when he doesn’t settle and the floor is spaced, as Al Horford discovered at the end of the third quarter on Sunday.

Coming out of a masterful defensive series against Kevin Durant and the Nets, Jayson Tatum was still challenged several times by Holiday, who wasn’t shy about testing a bigger, longer, more athletic defender. (This play and the one above took place on the right wing, Holiday’s preferred spot to launch an attack. According to Synergy Sports, Holiday’s right-side isolations produced 1.221 points per possession this season, which ranked in the 90th percentile.)

At the same time, the Celtics started the game with Tatum on Lopez so they could switch Holiday-Lopez pick-and-rolls. It’s not something they’ll change anytime soon.

Boston started with Smart on Holiday, who had good looks whenever Antetokounmpo set a screen for him because the Celtics clearly didn’t want to switch Horford off the two-time MVP. Against a drop, those actions created a few wide open pull-up threes and let Holiday get downhill.

Jaylen Brown took Holiday on quite a bit, too, and did a pretty good job limiting his shots and discouraging any penetration. Ime Udoka didn’t stop there when it came to throwing different primary defenders on Milwaukee’s point guard: Grant Williams spent a decent amount of time on Holiday, too. It’s a fascinating move that Boston could lean on throughout the series. Williams would be the most versatile defender on roughly a dozen NBA teams. Against Holiday, he’s too strong to be bullied and too quick to get beat off the bounce. (Not many guys can hang with Holiday and Giannis in the same game, which is what Grant Williams did in Game 1.)

The Bucks tried screening Williams off Holiday as often as they could (which is what happened on that Horford isolation from earlier), but against a great defense like Boston’s, sometimes it’s impossible to manipulate matchups in a 24-second span. There was one play where the Celtics pre-switched a ball screen to get Williams back on Jrue after he was picked off earlier in the play.

Much like Durant in Round 1, Giannis is the center of everything Boston does on defense. It’ll double him on the catch, shrink the floor in transition, dig off shooters and not offer any easy looks against (way) smaller defenders. But as the Celtics use five men to slow Antetokounmpo down, there are two questions they have to ask themselves on every play. The answers, all told, may decide this series: Who’s guarding Jrue Holiday, and can they stop him one-on-one?