NBA Finals: Scouts Give Their Takes on Warriors vs. Celtics Matchup

Eastern and Western Conference scouts weigh in on the championship.

The 2022 NBA Finals is a compelling matchup. It’s superior shooting against a generational defense, an established superstar (Stephen Curry) against a budding one (Jayson Tatum) and a series that, frankly, could be decided by who commits the fewest turnovers. Sports Illustrated asked two assistant coaches, one from the Eastern Conference and one from the West, to weigh in on this matchup.

Sports Illustrated: What is most dangerous about Boston?

East coach: Defensively is the biggest thing. Their length and their ability to switch, basically down the line, is incredible. They’re taking the three out of the game, kind of jumping up on guys. Especially when Robert Williams is in there, they seem to have confidence that, heaven forbid they get beat, they’re going to have protection at the rim. They’re just, to a man, really defending. Whether it’s [Marcus] Smart, obviously Tatum showed that he can play both sides of the ball, and then [Jaylen] Brown, but then [Derrick] White off the bench. They get after you with everyone.

They can play small ball without even going small at times. I think they’re one of the more well-rounded defensive teams for the new style of play in years. You know what I mean? When Smart’s your point guard, if you think about it, a lot of teams have guys they have to hide. There’s really no one they have to hide.

SI: What about Golden State?

West coach: The offense starts with transition offense. It’s the three-point line. And the thing with their transition is, how many turnovers are they forcing? So those two go hand in hand because they run well off of turnovers. They shoot threes. Dallas actually did a pretty good job of covering the three-point line against them in that series. The issue is they’re going to run a pick-and-roll or they’re going to run some basic early offense action to then start running around, essentially. And how you handle them after that initial action up and through the rebound is really critical.

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SI: Where are the Warriors exploitable?

WC: Well, they will throw that ball all over the gym in at least a couple of the games. Defensively, if you’re looking at these two teams, both teams are probably going to switch a fair amount. And whichever team has more success with that is probably going to be in good shape defensively.

The thing with Golden State where they’re exploitable, and this is risk/reward, but they’re going to give you some f------ wide-open shots. I mean, wide, wide open. And, if you look at the Dallas series, they lost a game in which they were up by 19 and took 45 threes and made 20 of them. And they ended up losing a game that they probably should have won. Credit to them. But it goes to where they’re exploitable. If they have to play Curry, [Jordan] Poole, [Andrew] Wiggins, and [Klay] Thompson, all at the same time to score, that’s two bad defenders that are on the floor. A third guy, who’s tough, but not very mobile.

And now they’re counting on [Draymond] Green or [Kevon] Looney to do all the work. And that is where they’re exploitable. They have to play those four guys together to score. And when they do that, they can’t guard at all. So, now it’s, do they throw in some of that junky zone? Do they box-and-one, 3–2, whatever their gimmick stuff is, but then at the end of the day, they just hope you miss.

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SI: What’s the strategy to beat Boston?

EC: You got to find a way, offensively, to score versus their switching. Whether that’s looking for slips and drives and basically banking on making shots, but you’ve got to find a way to create baskets versus their switching. You have got to attack. You got to keep pressure on Tatum and Brown, force them to defend. Try to find different ways to slip on and off the ball versus their switching to generate potential slipups with their coverage and get easy twos or kick-outs for threes. Then you got to hope you make them.

SI: What kind of leap has Jayson Tatum made this year?

EC: I think he’s definitely a superstar now. A guy that you really have to plan your whole game plan around and decide what you’re willing to give up. Before you could live with his baskets, as long as the other guys didn’t go nuts. But you’d be willing to live with Tatum getting his 50, because that probably meant nobody else was getting anything. Whereas now, he’s just going to keep coming, and the guys they have got around him, it’s crazy. But I mean, there was a point in this year where I remember seeing [Kevin] Durant live and saying, This guy’s a freak. Then we played Boston, and it was before they went on this streak, and I liked Tatum, but it wasn’t even close. To me now, I still think Durant’s probably the more elite of the two, but he’s made huge strides. He’s right there with him.

SI: How does this series play out?

WC: I lean towards Golden State, but I look at, statistically, three key areas. One is the turnovers. Both teams, when they win, they force them and don’t turn it over. Both teams when they lose, struggle to take care of the basketball. The second thing is the three-point battle or three-point line or whatever. Basically both of these teams when they win, they shoot more and make more threes. And then the third thing is rebounding. Specifically the Warriors’ offensive and the Celtics’ defensive rebounding, because when the Warriors win, they get more offensive rebounds. When the Celtics lose, they give up more. And then the other caveat is, between the two teams now, Golden State may switch a little bit less if they’re trying to keep Curry or Poole off of Tatum. But in general, this series, whatever team executes their switch defense, the best is probably going to be the better defensive team.

EC: I think that Boston is the deeper team and a little more well rounded top to bottom, as far as both scoring and defenders go. I think that Golden State’s elite shotmaking abilities, obviously, with Steph and then everybody else, Klay and even Wiggins at this point, gives them a chance to really still be dominant versus great defense because they’re just simply making shots on top of that. They’ve proven that they have the mold of a team and they are battle tested. Something that might rattle Boston, most likely, won’t prove as much adversity to them. I still have Golden State winning. I know a lot of people think that Boston, with its defense and shotmaking ability, they’re going to just outplay them. Now I also see a health issue for Boston. They’ve proven to be a little more banged up, while Golden State has proven to be a little healthier. Maybe this time off lets Boston heal its wounds and all that stuff. So maybe they’ll be much more healthy this week. But I still give the edge to the Warriors.