Top Five Steals From the 2022 NBA Draft

Which players selected Thursday night are most likely to outperform their draft position?

The legacy of the 2022 NBA draft may be centered around the drama that played out at the top, as the Magic shocked many by taking Duke’s Paolo Banchero over Auburn’s Jabari Smith and Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren with the first pick. But one of the things that made this draft unique was how wide-open the back half of the first round and early second round were. The gap in talent between No. 20 and No. 40 in this year’s draft felt smaller than normal, which presents some great opportunities to get a steal that can impact winning early in their careers.

Which players have the best chance to exceed their draft position and make a major impact at the next level? Let’s dive into the biggest steals of this year’s draft class.

Dalen Terry, Bulls (First round, No. 18 overall)

Terry’s rise from college role player to top-20 pick was one of the largest jumps throughout the predraft process, and it’s hard not to love what Terry brings to a playoff team. He was a steadying force for an Arizona team that earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, making an impact thanks to his versatility, defensive chops, competitiveness and catch-and-shoot game. He’s terrific in transition and a high-level decision-maker who raises the intensity level of any game he steps into.

Terry’s Arizona role actually mirrored a lot of what Lonzo Ball does now in Chicago. He’ll never be asked to be a major scorer in the NBA, but the Bulls’ roster is built around finding players who add value without the ball in their hands surrounding a pair of high-usage stars in Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan.

Malaki Branham, Spurs (First round, No. 20 overall)

I’m bullish on all three first-rounders landed by the Spurs, who picked up a trio of one-and-done prospects in Jeremy Sochan (Baylor), Blake Wesley (Notre Dame) and Branham. The Ohio State product surged during Big Ten play, averaging 17 points per game in 2022 and more than 20 per contest in the season’s final 10 games to rise into lottery consideration. To get a scoring talent of that caliber at No. 20 has to feel like a win for the Spurs. Branham struggled defensively in his lone season of college basketball, but shouldn’t be considered a lost cause on that end of the floor especially once he gets stronger. He’s capable of playing with or without the ball in his hands and could blossom into a valuable second-unit scorer in the NBA.

Patrick Baldwin Jr., Warriors (First round, No. 28 overall)

Baldwin goes from perhaps the least ideal potential college situation for his game to a perfect NBA fit. The former top-10 recruit chose to play for his father Pat at UW-Milwaukee, spurning Duke and a host of other blue blood programs in the process. He was surrounded with very little talent on an underwhelming UWM team, and nagging injuries further limited Baldwin’s college impact. To go from that to Golden State, one of the best organizations in the league in terms of player development and a team that won’t need immediate contributions is ideal for Baldwin’s future.

While not an explosive athlete, Baldwin has the potential to be an elite-level outside shooter at 6’9” with a projectable frame. That should be scary for the rest of the NBA, especially with a couple years of seasoning to make up for a disjointed last few years of development. It wouldn’t be surprising to look back on this pick in a couple of years as the steal of the draft, similar to how we felt throughout these NBA playoffs watching Jordan Poole blossom into an essential piece.

Kennedy Chandler, Grizzlies (Second round, No. 38 overall)

This is a circumstance where dropping out of the first round might have actually played in Chandler’s favor by landing in Memphis. Chandler is arguably the best pure point guard in this draft class, a diminutive but speedy guard who makes the most out of his undersized frame and led Tennessee to an SEC tournament championship in his lone college season. He’s also a local product who gets to stay home and play for an organization that has been among the NBA’s most well-run in the last few years.

One of the biggest reasons for the Grizzlies’ impressive season in 2021–22 was how good Tyus Jones was backing up Ja Morant. Chandler could eventually become a high-level backup point guard in the NBA and provides some insurance should Jones leave this offseason in free agency. He’s a skilled ball screen operator who, if he can hang in defensively against physically imposing NBA guards, should have a nice career in Memphis.

EJ Liddell, Pelicans (Second round, No. 41 overall)

The Pelicans struck gold in last year’s rookie class, adding Herb Jones in the second round and Jose Alvarado as an undrafted free agent. Both ended up contributing in a playoff series in Year 1, pretty much the best case scenario in this range of the draft. David Griffin and the Pels may have done it again, adding one of college basketball’s best players in Liddell out of Ohio State. While Liddell isn’t without flaws, he has consistently gotten better throughout his college career and turned himself into a real NBA prospect thanks to his improved shooting ability and toughness.

Versatile combo forwards who can stretch the floor are always in high demand in the NBA, and Liddell’s skill set fits that well. Don’t be stunned if he impacts winning from Day 1 in New Orleans, which also added G League Ignite’s Dyson Daniels in the first round.