Assessing Draymond Green's Future With the Warriors

If this is Green’s last season in Golden State, the punch to Jordan Poole may be a convenient reason, but probably wouldn’t be really why he leaves in free agency.

In the Warriors’ first preseason game after the practice punch leaked around the world, Steve Kerr had this to say about Jordan Poole, who led the team in scoring in a loss to the Lakers:

“I mean there’s a reason Jordan is where he is right now,” Kerr said Sunday. “Especially when you consider where he was coming out of Michigan as a late first-round pick. Struggling his first few months in the league. There’s a reason he’s in this position, about to sign a big extension hopefully.”

Kerr’s comments, at their stingiest interpretation, would suggest Golden State is prepared to sign Poole to a long-term contract before an Oct. 17 deadline. Whether or not that is a source of tension that led to Draymond Green punching the fourth-year guard, Poole’s position appears to stand in contrast to that of Green, who said two weeks ago on media day that he does not expect to sign an extension before next summer, when Draymond can become a free agent if he declines his player option.

Could Green really leave Golden State? A case could be made before his incident with Poole. The Warriors will be paying Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson over $95 million alone next season, a massive figure even with the rising cap. Meanwhile, the young core of James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and Kevon Looney are all under contract as well. Poole could command nearly a $30 million salary. As could Andrew Wiggins, who is in the last year of his deal and was arguably the second-best player on Golden State’s championship team. Adding Green into the mix would result in a payroll well over $200 million, not counting the repeater luxury tax. (A penalty Dubs owner Joe Lacob has already described as “very unfair.”)

Green will be 33 next summer, and opting out is probably his best chance at securing one more long-term deal. On one hand, it’s impossible to imagine the Warriors having the same level of success the past eight years without Green’s attitude and defensive versatility. Yes, his distinct edge has caused him to cross the line on multiple occasions. But it’s that exact edge the team has relied on time and time again in high-leverage moments. Green’s demanding style of play and intense wiring go hand-in-hand. (And though Poole himself hasn’t spoken, from what we’ve heard from other Warriors, there is at the very least a willingness to work Green back into the fold.)

On the other hand, the Warriors have more credible Green replacements on their roster than for their other stars. Kuminga and Wiseman are lurking as possible replacements. Though neither of them are expected to turn into one of the greatest defenders of all time, a combination of their talents could help bring Golden State at least some of what Green has, and maybe also some of what he lacks.

Letting Green walk would allow the Dubs to start handing more responsibility to their promising youngsters, and save money on their ever-rising tax bill as they potentially allocate that money to Poole and Wiggins instead.

The Warriors could try to play hardball with Green, daring him to test the market. It’s not only hard to imagine Green not on the Warriors, it’s difficult to think of which team is his next best fit. Green’s shaky offensive game could be an issue elsewhere, away from the comforts of his stellar two-man game with Curry. It would be strange to see Draymond playing for a team without title hopes. Could another contender work him in as seamlessly as the Warriors have? Golden State struggled at times with Green on the floor during the summer’s title run, though he always bounced back.

There would certainly still be suitors for Green. Yes, after the punch, his institutional championship knowledge would still make him valuable to every team in the league. And even if you need to adjust your offense with him on the floor, Draymond is still one of the most impactful players in the world.

All of this is to say, if this is Green’s last season with the Warriors, the punch may be a convenient reason, but probably wouldn’t be really why he leaves. Especially financially, both sides could be motivated to part ways next summer. And as we’ve seen from countless clips from “The Shop,” Green is not lacking superstar friends to team up with.

To echo Kerr, there was a reason Green was in this position with his extension before his practice dustup. There may be more incidents this season, but both sides know what to expect from this relationship. If this is indeed Green’s last run with the Warriors, pinpointing any one moment as the reason why likely won’t hold up.