NBA’s Early Surprises and Disappointments

Plus, the biggest overreactions to the first week of games.

The NBA season is barely more than a week old, but that won't stop us from analyzing and overreacting to some early story lines. What’s caught our eye? The Crossover staff breaks down the players and teams that are off to impressive (and not-so-impressive) starts.

Who has had the most surprising start to the season?

Howard Beck: The obvious choice is the Jazz and Spurs, who are supposed to be wallowing for Wembanyama and instead are defying us all by (zoinks!) winning games. But I’m going with the Trail Blazers here, because a) the Jazz/Spurs thing won’t last, and b) it’s just a delight to see Damian Lillard doing Dame things again, on a team that appears legitimately good. Anfernee Simons is flirting with stardom. Josh Hart and Jerami Grant have given Portland a nice defensive edge. Mostly, it’s just great to see Lillard, one of the game’s most electrifying talents, lighting up the scoreboard and hitting clutch shots again after missing most of last season with an abdominal injury. It’s early yet, but this team looks capable of reclaiming a place in the postseason.

John Gonzalez: Has to be the Jazz, right? You have the commissioner telling people that he’s worried about teams tanking for Victor Wembanyama and that he’s addressed it countless times, and then here you have a team everyone expected to toss away its season starting out 4–1, including with a really good road win over everyone’s favorite League Pass team, the Pelicans. Not sure this is what Dealer Danny had in mind when he shipped off Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, but it appears he has too many competent professionals on the squad for the Jazz to be as bad as anticipated.

Chris Herring: The Jazz have been so much fun. Too many of us made the mistake of equating “rebuild” with “youth” here. Utah is composed of mostly veterans, including a handful other teams would be highly interested in. Danny Ainge just hasn’t sent them elsewhere yet, likely waiting for a deal of his liking. There’s a sense of pride there for almost all of these players—particularly Collin Sexton, who’s coming off an ACL tear, and veterans Mike Conley and Rudy Gay, who were criticized last year as the team faltered yet again in the playoffs. Things will taper off eventually—without Gobert, the team is the worst in the league in limiting paint points—but this club has been enjoyable so far.

Robin Lundberg: The Pelicans. Sure, teams like the Jazz and Spurs have been better than expected. But with small samples, scrappiness can prevail. Though I knew the Pelicans to be good, they look to be a level higher than I expected. I now put them in the mix for the championship.

Rohan Nadkarni: How can it be anyone except the Jazz? Utah traded away its two best players in the offseason, then started fielding offers for its role players as well. While the moves left the Jazz with competent players, it didn’t exactly seem like a cohesive group. Instead the team has been really fun, and connected enough to knock off squads like the Wolves and Nuggets. Lauri Markannen has been a revelation. It’s probably not sustainable, but this team is far from a true tank job at the moment.

Who has had the most disappointing start to the season?

Beck: The Sixers. Sure, the Lakers are the biggest train wreck (and everything involving LeBron is just, well, bigger), but that’s a train wreck we all saw coming. No one expected the Lakers to be good. The Sixers, on the other hand? They’re supposed to be a title contender, with a perennial MVP candidate (Joel Embiid), a former MVP (James Harden), a blossoming star (Tyrese Maxey) and a stout supporting cast, bolstered by the offseason pickups of P.J. Tucker and DeAnthony Melton. I’m not sure what’s more alarming: the Sixers losing back-to-back games to East rivals Boston and Milwaukee (the teams they need to beat), or losing to the lottery-bound Spurs. They just look disjointed. Of course, it’s early still.

Gonzalez: Lot of contenders here, including the Sixers and Heat, but I’ll go with the Lakers. They’re the NBA’s flagship franchise in the entertainment capital of the world, and they have completely bombed at the basketball box office so far. LeBron James has looked incredible, and Anthony Davis is upright, which is a win, but beyond that the roster is a disaster and the Russell Westbrook situation is untenable. Anyone who believed the preseason propaganda about Russ coming off the bench, setting screens and rejecting his fundamental Russ-ness has to be kicking themselves.

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Herring: The Sixers, and it doesn’t even feel like a close race here. James Harden had a full training camp with the team and was in shape. Most of us said Philly had one of the best offseasons as far as acquisitions are concerned. The “what’s going to happen with Ben Simmons?” question wasn’t hanging over the club’s head this time. Yes, the schedule was a tad tough out of the gate. But then they lost to the Spurs and struggled late to put away the Pacers. The transition defense looks horrible, and so does the offensive rebounding. It’s hard to be bad at both.

Lundberg: The Sixers. While I never thought the Sixers were going to win the championship, their play has to be alarming. We already knew the Lakers didn't have talent and the Nets are integrating new parts. Philly doesn't really have an excuse for what we've seen thus far.

Nadkarni: Despite heavy competition from the Nets, I’ll go with the Sixers here. At least Brooklyn has the excuses of all the drama from the summer and trying to work Ben Simmons back into shape. What’s the Sixers’ justification for starting 1-4? The Harden-Embiid balance isn’t quite right, and the defense has been pitiful. Philly has faced some tough opponents to start the season. Still, if this is supposed to be a title contender, the Sixers haven’t looked it yet.

Which offseason addition has been the most impressive so far?

The Knicks have found their answer at point guard in Jalen Brunson :: Vincent Carchietta/USA TODAY Sports

Beck: Jalen Brunson has exceeded all expectations as the Knicks’ new starting point guard, leading them to a 3–1 record while averaging 20 points, 8.5 assists and 4.5 rebounds, all of which would be career highs. He’s also making 41% of his three-point attempts. Brunson was solid (and occasionally excellent) with the Mavericks, but there’s a big difference between playing as Luka Dončić’s sidekick in Dallas and taking on the leading-man role in New York. The Knicks’ schedule has been soft, but the early returns are encouraging.

Gonzalez: Donovan Mitchell has started the season in Cleveland like he was shot out of a cannon. Through his first three games, he was averaging 33.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 2.0 steals while also shooting 49.3% from the floor and 87.5% (on eight attempts!). Those are cartoon numbers. Almost all of that came without Darius Garland around, since he’s dealing with an eye laceration, and I still want to see how those two pair once they’re on the court together for extended minutes. But in the interim the Cavs have to be thrilled with Mitchell’s production, small sample size or no.

Herring: It’s Paolo Banchero, who’s logging historically significant stat lines as a first-year player. He looks incredibly comfortable getting to his spots—even as he struggles with shooting from deep so far—and looks like a home run for the Magic, who were already thrilled by having added impactful wing Franz Wagner last season. While the losing can’t be fun, adding one more high-level pick in a year like this could put Orlando over the top for the long term.

Lundberg: Jalen Brunson. I don’t expect the Knicks’ record to hold as the schedule gets tougher, but it still looks like New York has finally found its point guard. And Brunson has put to bed any criticism about the contract he received in the offseason.

Nadkarni: I’ll say Paolo Banchero. Lots of new guys have looked good, I just love the scoring punch the No. 1 pick has already provided the Magic. Paolo is on a 20-point heater, and it’s fun watching him work with Franz Wagner. Though the team is not good yet, it’s hard to watch Orlando and not be excited about the future.

What has been the biggest overreaction so far?

Beck: Everything. Everything that’s prompted pundits and fans to bloviate, celebrate or hyperventilate after ONE WEEK of games is, by definition, an overreaction. Seriously, settle down, people. It’s stupidly early. Nothing means anything yet. (Well, except the Lakers being screwed. But we didn’t need games to know that.)

Gonzalez: Adam Silver. His comments on tanking being a huge problem that he’s addressed with the league countless times felt like a bit much. Victor Wembanyama is a once-in-a-generation talent. Of course teams are going to do anything they can to secure his services. As well they should. But the league already flattened the lottery odds. It’s not like this is a full Process situation happening right now. No need for pearl clutching; it’s not 2014.

Herring: The Lakers, but not because they don’t stink. They stink to the high heavens. But on some level, this should have always been the expectation, given that they didn’t make the move that everyone’s known for a year that they needed to make. Since it isn’t ultimately that surprising, we should all be at a point where we can stop acting surprised.

Lundberg: The biggest overreaction has been around Ben Simmons. He is a shiny new story in Brooklyn and has certainly looked unplayable at times. However, the layoff and back surgery are legitimate reasons to have patience with what develops. I think fair takeaways can come in a couple of weeks.

Nadkarni: Probably every Ben Simmons take. Simmons hasn’t looked sharp, but as Kyrie Irving pointed out, he also hasn’t played in the NBA since the 2021 playoffs, and is coming off back surgery. Simmons needs time even if that’s not a luxury for the Nets at this point. I still think he has enough talent to figure it out.

Who is the MVP after the first week?

Beck: JJ Redick, for this righteous rant about aggregators, lazy takes and the general ill state of our sports media ecosystem. And it’s never too early for that.

Gonzalez: Going with Damian Lillard, despite his suffering a calf strain in a loss to the Heat on Wednesday. Prior to that game, Lillard and the Blazers were flying. Through the first four outings, all Portland wins, Lillard averaged 33.3 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists while shooting 50% from the field and 91.7% from the line (on nine attempts!). He looked uncomfortable following a jumper against Miami and was ruled out pretty quickly, but hopefully Portland was just being cautious given his injury history. The NBA is better when Dame is healthy and cooking.

Herring: I wanted to make a case for Pascal Siakam, who has looked fantastic—and much improved—in doing it all for Toronto. But if the season ended today, it’d be Giannis, who’s led Milwaukee to an undefeated mark (3–0) while averaging 36 points, 13 rebounds, five assists and two blocks per night. Even without a good jumper, he’s an unstoppable beast from game to game on both ends.

Lundberg: Ja Morant. I could also easily pick Giannis, but in the interest of adding some freshness to the conversation I'll go with Ja, who may have improved his shooting to the point of being completely unguardable. If he sustains that, the Grizzlies must be taken seriously as contenders.

Nadkarni: Giannis is the Week 1 MVP. He is averaging 36 points a night while spearheading the No. 1 defense in the league. (Albeit it’s after only three games, the Bucks’ defensive rating is 98.6.) The Greek Freak looks highly motivated and he’s carrying the Bucks as Khris Middleton still recovers from injury. Even if Giannis can’t keep up this bonkers pace, he has a great chance to bring home his third MVP trophy this season.