NBA Panic Meter: Kawhi, Warriors and Timberwolves

Is it too early to be concerned?

Checking the panic meter on Kawhi Leonard, the Warriors and the Timberwolves.

About Kawhi missing even more time?

Oh, I’m very concerned at this point. Had my hand on the alarm when the Clips recently decided to sit him for both games of a back-to-back, out of an abundance of caution. Now that they’ve deemed him out indefinitely, I’m completely concerned, and honestly feel like I erred in picking them to come out of the West. And that’s not a great feeling three weeks into the season!

Obviously Kawhi’s health matters more than any prediction I made, though, and I really, really hope he can get back to being healthy this season. The sport is so much better with him playing. So are the Clippers, even though they managed to get within two victories of reaching the NBA Finals with Leonard sidelined back in 2021.

Yes, this Clippers team enjoys more depth than just about anyone in basketball. I love that John Wall looks like himself and that the team has solid wings for days. Still, at some point, chemistry and night-to-night dependability figure to matter—if not now, then in April. So does the notion of establishing roles for the guys who make up your depth. It becomes a lot harder to solidify that when players at Kawhi’s level—No. 1 scorers, with nearly 30% usage—are out. And that doesn’t even address the fact that Paul George has often missed plenty of time in recent seasons, too.

About the Warriors?

No. Not entirely. Not yet.

But the context matters here, I suppose. I’m not worried because they’ll win a lot of games the way they won last night: With Steph Curry being one of the greatest players of all time, and simply finding a way to get it done. (Side note: The Kings got hosed on that no-call at the end of the game, where Kevin Huerter clearly got fouled by Klay Thompson. Sacramento also got screwed in its weekend loss to Miami, which officials have since acknowledged, in terms of Tyler Herro’s game-winner.) On Monday, Curry had 47 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists and no turnovers.

That isn’t ideal, and for a Dubs team that dubs itself “Strength in Numbers,” those other numbers will need to show up more consistently to repeat as champions. Steve Kerr shook up the rotation as promised, benching both James Wiseman and JaMychal Green. But he didn’t get much of a response in doing so. Certainly not from the bench, where every reserve finished with a negative plus/minus. By contrast, the starters all were a +8 or better on the night.

Kerr opted to start reserve Jordan Poole in Kevon Looney’s place to begin the second half Monday, as a way to jumpstart him. But Poole finished with just two points on 1-of-4 shooting, dropping him to 29.5% overall and 20.8% from three over his last four contests. His lack of production, when paired with Klay Thompson’s struggles, has made for some low-wattage offense. (Shoutout to Andrew Wiggins’s consistency, in all seriousness.)

There’s well-founded hope that the shooting will improve. The defense should, too, at some point if Kerr remains consistent about keeping the rotation shorter.

What’s become abundantly clear is that Golden State lost a great deal in Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton III, and that replacing the lost production wasn’t as simple as merely handing things over to the youngsters. That has made things more of an uphill climb and could tax Steph’s body a bit because of how much he’ll have to shoulder this season.

But as long as he’s healthy as the playoffs roll around, I trust Kerr, Golden State and its vets to be in a good enough position to contend for a repeat—both by adding depth via buyout or trade, and by eventually locking in better defensively.

About the Timberwolves?

Yep. At least a little.

When Minnesota swung the Gobert deal, and gave up as much as it did to get it done, I figured there had to be very particular things the front office and coaching staff were leaning on statistically to suggest a pairing between Rudy and Karl-Anthony Towns would not only work, but thrive.

Perhaps, then, it’s just something that needs a bit more time. But the early returns haven’t been great. Things have worked out O.K. enough defensively, though the eye test suggests that teams can spread the floor and find open shooters along the perimeter against Minnesota’s biggest lineup when they want to. But the offense has been bad with Gobert-Towns lineups, yielding just 101.4 points per 100 possessions—a rate that’d rank as the NBA’s worst—in 206 minutes.

Some have pointed out that Towns is posting up at the lowest rate of his career—and also sporting the lowest usage and free-throw rates he’s had in years—in part because he kind of has to play along the arc at times, given where Gobert often sets up shop. (D’Angelo Russell shooting even 40% overall and 30% from three would surely help ease matters, too.)

But it was a bit humorous, and telling, when Anthony Edwards recently saw on paper what many analysts and fans alike have been noticing for much of the season now. During a postgame press conference, he picked up the box score and noticed in real time how destructive the starters have been at times, whereas the reserves have come in and dominated. It’s been a theme throughout the season, one Edwards himself has been a factor in. Bench lineups with him, a much-improved Naz Reid, Taurean Prince and Jordan McLaughlin have been stellar so far, perhaps because there’s so much additional space and versatility.

At some point, though, Towns and Gobert (currently out due to health and safety protocols) will have to be better on offense for this to work the way the front office hoped.

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