NBA Midseason Awards: MVP Favorite Nikola Jokic Leads the Way

If the season ended today, these would be the picks to make.

The NBA season has turned the corner, as we are now slightly beyond the halfway mark of the regular season. Every team has played more than 41 games, which means we have a decent snapshot of how the league is taking shape. With that in mind, let’s hand out some hardware and make our midseason awards picks. This isn’t who necessarily may win these awards by the end of the season; it’s who I would pick for each category if the season ended today. Onward …

Coach of the Year: Jacque Vaughn, Nets

Always a difficult award to give out and always a bunch of deserving candidates. What Vaughn has done on and off the floor has been really impressive, though, especially considering Brooklyn seemingly had to be shamed into hiring him. (Remember those Ime Udoka rumors?) Vaughn has helped transform a team that was laughable defensively into a top-10 group in the league. He has calmed the waters after months of team drama and finally has the roster playing up to its preseason potential. And after a terribly slow start to the season, the Nets are rather miraculously in the top four in the East. Keeping the ship steady without Kevin Durant will be tricky. If Vaughn pulls that off as well, this is his award to lose. 

Also deserving: Joe Mazzulla, Celtics; Will Hardy, Jazz; Michael Malone, Nuggets

Most Improved Player: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

Gilgeous-Alexander has gone from All-Star talent to franchise building block :: Alonzo Adams/USA TODAY Sports

For me, this is a two-player race between SGA and Lauri Markkanen, who has been a flamethrower for the Jazz. My fake vote goes to SGA, because I think the leap he’s made in terms of what he means to the franchise is a little bigger than what Markkanen has done. Both have been fantastic. But while Lauri has become an All-Star, what Gilgeous-Alexander has done is gone from All-Star talent to franchise building block. Is that something you can really quantify? Not quite. And yet I believe that perception plays some part in this pick. Also, SGA certainly has the stats to justify the pick! SGA is taking fewer than two shots more per game than last season, and still his scoring average has jumped more than six points to nearly 31 a game. (Constant trips to the free throw line certainly help.) And the Thunder, who lost No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren to injury before the season, have been as big a surprise as anyone in the league, hovering around .500 and within striking distance of home court in the first round. 

Also deserving: Markkanen, Jazz; Bol Bol, Magic

Rookie of the Year: Paolo Banchero, Magic

Amid a fun rookie class, Banchero is the clear pick for the award so far. He has a surprisingly polished offensive game for a rookie, and he’s been fearless for a frisky Magic team. Banchero is averaging 21.1 points per game, getting to the line a whopping 7.8 times a night. (He is going to be really scary once his outside jumper improves a bit.) Orlando often trusts him with the ball in late-game situations, and Banchero has been adept at learning on the fly. He’s going to get buckets for many years to come.

Also deserving: Bennedict Mathurin, Pacers; Walker Kessler, Jazz

Sixth Man of the Year: Malcolm Brogdon, Celtics

Brogdon’s efficiency and two-way prowess make him my pick for Sixth Man, which too often goes to the most shameless gunner off the bench. Brogdon is playing only 23.8 minutes a night—a sign of his buy-in to his role more so than an indicator of how much he should be playing. And in that somewhat limited time, he’s averaging practically a 14/4/4 while shooting more than 45% from three. Brogdon is a microcosm of what has made the Celtics the best team in the NBA so far this season. He is knocking down open threes at a comically hot rate, and he can effectively guard multiple positions on the other end of the floor. Mix in his playmaking duties, and rarely do players as well rounded as Brogdon ever come off the bench. That deserves recognition.

Also deserving: Russell Westbrook, Lakers; Norm Powell, Clippers

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Defensive Player of the Year: Bam Adebayo, Heat

This is going to be a competitive award, and my answer will probably be changing week to week. A month ago my pick probably would have been Brook Lopez. A month from now it will likely be Jaren Jackson Jr. Right now, my pick is Adebayo. The criteria for this award doesn’t really exist. Should it by default go to the best player on the best defense? How do you separate someone’s individual defensive impact from his teammates? Right now, I’ll say Adebayo because I believe he’s the most versatile of the top candidates.

Bam could more readily play the roles of Lopez and JJJ than they could his. He is elite no matter how you deploy him, whether he’s in the middle of a zone, dropping into the paint or switching onto perimeter players—all ways in which the Heat have asked him to play this year. He is the ultimate defensive Swiss Army knife and has kept the Heat’s defense in the top 10 despite a rash of injuries. (Miami doesn’t have a single five-man group that’s played at least 15 games together.) And he’s currently played more than twice as many minutes as Jackson, which was seemingly a factor in last year’s voting. Whoever wins, this race is going to come down to the wire.

Also deserving: Lopez, Bucks; Jackson, Grizzlies

Most Valuable Player: Nikola Jokić, Nuggets

Jokić could be well on his way to winning his third straight MVP award :: Isaiah J. Downing/USA TODAY Sports

If your reason for not giving Jokić a third-straight MVP is because of “what it would mean historically” that he’s won three in a row, simply put: That’s not good enough. The Joker has likely earned this award for the third straight season in a row, and even with some incredible individual efforts around the league, Jokić may run away with MVP by the end of the year.

Denver currently has a 125.4 offensive rating with Joker on the floor; that’s nearly eight points per 100 possessions better than Boston’s overall No. 1 offense. With Jokić on the court this season, the Nuggets have a better offense than the 2017 Warriors Hamptons Five lineup.

Denver is 17.1 points per 100 better offensively with Jokić on the court. They are also 7.9 points per 100 worse defensively when he sits. Per Cleaning the Glass, Denver’s expected win total with Jokić on the floor is 67, and plummets to a whopping 15 when he’s on the bench. Overall the Nuggets, who are first in the West, are 25.0 points per 100 possessions better with Jokić playing, an even bigger gap than his 2022 MVP campaign.

All of this is happening while Jokić averages 25.0 points, 11.0 rebounds and 9.8 assists a night on an absurd 62.7% shooting from the field. Joker’s efficiency is typically the kind of anomaly seen only in a science fiction movie. He’s shot under 50% from the field in a game only once this season, all the way back on Oct. 28. He shoots nearly 67% on twos, and as a team, the Nuggets’ effective field goal percentage is 6.6% better with Jokić than without him.

Joker is both individually dominant out of basically any offensive action—be it isolations, post-ups, rolling to the hoop—while also significantly improving the play of those around him. No player in the league comes close to matching that current combination. (Seriously, per CTG, Jokić is in the 100th percentile in overall on/off difference; in the 99th percentile in effective field goal percentage on/off difference; and in the 95th percentile in defensive on/off difference. The Nuggets go from championship contender to “our most untrustworthy family member is being forced to babysit because of an unforeseen emergency, and now the kids are eating ice cream for dinner” whenever Jokic rests.)

All the reasons for not giving Jokić the award are superficial. The team’s defense is good enough when he’s playing. Playoff success is irrelevant. What happened last season or the season before isn’t supposed to matter. If the MVP is meant to recognize the most valuable player of 2023, then Jokić can’t be left out.

Also deserving: Luka Dončić, Mavericks; Jayson Tatum, Celtics; Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks; Stephen Curry, Warriors; Joel Embiid, 76ers; Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers