Warriors Can Reach the NBA Finals With Andrew Wiggins Back

With the All-Star forward back, Golden State has as good a chance as any team in the wide-open West.

The Warriors’ title defense received a major boost Monday.

Former All-Star forward Andrew Wiggins is expected to return to the team early this week, reports ESPN. Wiggins has not played for Golden State since Feb. 13, missing every game since because of a personal matter. After a loss to the Nuggets on Sunday, the Warriors entered the final week of the regular season in sixth place, with a slim two-game lead over the ninth-place Timberwolves in the West. Golden State has only three games left to avoid the play-in tournament, a home matchup against the Thunder on Tuesday before finishing the regular season on the road against Sacramento and Portland.

Wiggins is a massive piece for the Dubs’ title hopes. As disappointing as this season has been for Golden State, in a Western Conference without a runaway favorite, a healthy and in-shape Wiggins would give the Warriors as good a chance as any team to make it to the Finals.

Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports

We’ve harped on this before, but the Dubs have the best high-usage lineup in the NBA this season. Only 20 five-man units have played at least 300 minutes together this season. Of those 20 lineups, the Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney fivesome has by far the best net rating at 21.4. If you increase the sample size to all lineups that have played at least 200 minutes together, the Golden State starters still rank first out of 41 qualifying groups.

Wiggins was averaging 17.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists a night in 37 games this season before beginning his absence. He was also shooting a career-best 39.6% from three. At his best, Wiggins is a seamless two-way complement next to the Warriors’ Hall of Fame trio of Steph, Klay and Dray. His shooting has improved enough over the course of his career that teams cannot ignore him in the half court. And Wiggins can also create his own shot, either in tight spaces, or with the lanes afforded to him by the gravity of Curry and Thompson.

Wiggins was arguably the Warriors’ second-best player during their championship run in 2022. He was second on the team in minutes per game and fourth in points, while also playing invaluable perimeter defense against the likes of Luka Dončić and Jayson Tatum. Those services will be needed again, especially if the Warriors run into the Suns and Kevin Durant, the Lakers and LeBron James, or the Clippers and Kawhi Leonard this postseason.

The current iteration of the Warriors is particularly desperate for Wiggins’s return after the hits its depth took before the season. Otto Porter Jr. is gone, Andre Iguodala has been hurt for most of the season and Jonathan Kuminga did not play serious minutes last postseason.

Wiggins’s comeback not only allows Golden State to reform its effective starting group, but he also gives Steve Kerr much more lineup flexibility. The team can go small with Steph, Klay, Dray and Wiggins, and add in some combo of Donte DiVincenzo, Gary Payton II, Jordan Poole or Kuminga. The rotation falls into much better shape, and Kerr can better bend his lineups depending on the opponent.

The big question is, can Wiggins return to the form he had last summer and early this season? Even excluding his personal leave, Wiggins missed some time this year due to injury. And he will not have much ramp-up time once he steps back on the floor. He will be thrown immediately into high-leverage, high-intensity moments. Having to acclimate to that level of basketball after missing so much time will not be easy. And it’s possible the Dubs will be thrown into the fire in Round 1 against an opponent like Phoenix. Wiggins’s conditioning will be a legitimate concern, and it would almost be unfair to expect him to play at a high level immediately.

If Wiggins is fully back, though? His presence is a game-changer in the West. For all their struggles, the Warriors will be in a good position with a healthy Wiggins. You can throw their dismal road record out the window. Golden State at full strength deserves to be mentioned in the highest tier of contenders in this wide-open NBA season. If the Wiggins who comes back this week is the same one we saw lifting the trophy last June, the Warriors may be the most dangerous team in the West.

• NBA Playoffs Start in April: Completely monthly streaming guide.