Roundtable: Play-in Tournament Predictions, Story Lines and Pressure Points

The Heat, Hawks, Raptors, Bulls, Lakers, Timberwolves, Pelicans and Thunder are set to battle for the NBA’s last four playoff spots this week.

The NBA regular season wrapped up Sunday and tensions were clearly high on some teams looking to better their standing ahead of the playoffs, with multiple on-court altercations between teammates taking place. When the dust settled, the Warriors and Clippers avoided the play-in tournament in the Western Conference, consigning the Lakers to a play-in matchup against the Timberwolves, who had one heck of a Pyrrhic victory over the Pelicans in a matchup for the No. 8 spot.

And that’s just one of the four games we have to look forward to in the first round of the play-in bracket. Here’s the full schedule:

Hawks (East No. 8) vs. Heat (East No. 7): 7:30 p.m. ET, Tuesday
Timberwolves (West No. 8) vs. Lakers (West No. 7): 10 p.m. ET, Tuesday

Bulls (East No. 10) vs. Raptors (East No. 9): 7 p.m. ET, Wednesday
Thunder (West No. 10) vs. Pelicans (West No. 9): 9:30 p.m. ET, Wednesday

SI’s NBA staff is here to break down all of the story lines ahead of the play-in tournament’s first round, as well as predict which teams will emerge victorious.

The Timberwolves defeated the Pelicans in Sunday’s regular season finale to clinch the No. 8 seed in the West’s play-in tournament, but won’t be at full strength for Tuesday’s matchup against the Lakers :: Jeffrey Becker/USA TODAY Sports

Which is the most compelling play-in matchup?

Chris Mannix: Uh, are you seeing what’s going on in Minnesota? Jaden McDaniels punched a wall, Rudy Gobert popped a teammate and now the Timberwolves could face L.A. without two of its top stars. We know McDaniels is done—a broken hand isn’t healing anytime soon. We’ll see how Minnesota punishes Gobert for hitting Kyle Anderson during a heated moment in the huddle. Meanwhile the surging Lakers are at full strength but will have to get into the postseason the hard way.

Chris Herring: Lakers–T-Wolves. There’s ample star power and playoff experience, and both teams have had extreme ups and downs in having to navigate key injuries and adapting to new roster pieces.

Rohan Nadkarni: Lakers vs. Wolves is the obvious pick here. Minnesota was supposed to be an improved team after the Rudy Gobert trade and instead is back in the play-in. The Lakers went from laughingstock to turning their season around, only it’s still kind of embarrassing for a team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis to be in the play-in. Both these teams had designs on a much better season. The talent on the floor will reflect that.

Which player has the most pressure heading into the play-in games and/or the playoffs?

CM: Anthony Davis. Davis has been great since returning from injury and the sample size is too big to doubt him now. But the Lakers are taking the path of most resistance in these playoffs. The Lakers need 2020 Bubble AD, the dominant version of AD, beginning Tuesday, when he will be matched up with Karl-Anthony Towns most of the night. If he’s something less, L.A.’s second half surge will be meaningless.

CH: It’s the Lakers, whose two franchise players won a title for Los Angeles back in 2020. LeBron and AD aren’t getting any younger, and the injuries aren’t getting less frequent. They upgraded the club via trade at the deadline, and this roster fits the star players far better than before.

RN: Another easy pick: LeBron. The King is in the twilight of his career. He needs all the chances he can get to add to his ring count. With the West kind of open, James can’t afford to punt on this season.

What is on the line for Minnesota?

CM: It’s fitting this train wreck of a season ends with not one but two trainwrecky moments. The silver lining in Minnesota’s messy finale is that they did rally to beat the Pelicans, which avoids a single elimination showdown in the 9-10 game, and they are entering the play-in on a three-game winning streak. But the Gobert trade has been a disaster—how many GMs would trade Gobert for Walker Kessler straight up right now?—and the dysfunction is at an all-time high. If the Timberwolves can’t piece something together this week, there will be a lot of changes in Minnesota.

CH: Plenty. The team traded all those picks for Gobert, and it wasn’t to merely make the play-in and then get bounced. But perhaps not as much on the line as there would have been if Karl-Anthony Towns had been healthy all season. There’s seemingly more runway to run the experiment back next season.

RN: Probably the build of this current roster. Even with the Towns injury, I’m not sure how you bring this team back after the season ended with players punching walls or each other. Do you really want to give the Gobert-Towns frontcourt another chance after this season put the team back in the play-in? At least last year Minnesota finished in seventh. I don’t think giving this group one more go around is the best decision if the Wolves flame out of the postseason entirely. At the very least, the vibes are awful.

West 7–8: Which team has the edge?

CM: Lakers. Amazingly, Minnesota makes L.A. look functional.

CH: I’ll take the Lakers. I hated the Naz Reid injury for Minnesota, and then elite defender Jaden McDaniels broke his hand Sunday, too. Terrible timing on both fronts.

RN: Lakers will be at home and healthy, while the Wolves will be without McDaniels, Reid, and possibly a suspended Gobert?

West 9–10: Which team has the edge?

CM: New Orleans. The Pelicans went 3–1 against Oklahoma City in the regular season, including two wins without Zion Williamson, who is expected to miss the play-in. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 33.5 points in those matchups but I think New Orleans, at home, has enough firepower to match him. Sneakily could be the best game of the week.

CH: Give me the Thunder. They have a guy who would be deserving of first-team All NBA, and who has more 30-point games than anyone else. They have ballhandling and length. Something about the way they’ve played all season makes me think they won’t have fear in this scenario.

RN: I like the Pelicans, who over the last couple of weeks looked much more like the team that pushed the Suns in the first round of last year’s playoffs. New Orleans finished with the second-best net rating in the NBA over the final 15 games of the season. The Thunder finished 20th.

East 7–8: Which team has the edge?

CM: Miami. The Heat took three out of four from Atlanta this season and did yeoman’s work defending Trae Young in them. It’s been a disappointing season in Miami but I’m betting on Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo to ratchet it up in the play-in.

CH: The Heat. They won three out of four against Atlanta and have more experience together, having not only been to the Finals in 2020, but also were one win away from making last year’s Finals. I trust them more to get it done here; the Hawks have been wildly inconsistent all season.

RN: Gotta be Miami. Going back to last year’s first-round matchup, the Heat have gone 7–2 against Atlanta in their last nine, with Trae Young struggling mightily in those games. Miami’s offense has been better in the second half of the season. And while the Hawks can score, their defense was sixth-worst in the NBA after the All-Star break.

East 9–10: Which team has the edge?

CM: Chicago. DeMar DeRozan revenge game! Both these teams have been disappointments. But the Bulls have been playing better defense since the trade deadline and it was wild seeing Toronto get clobbered in two straight by a Boston team with little to play for. It feels like the Raptors just want this season to be over with.

CH: I’ll take the Raptors, who are 27–14 at home, and beat the Bulls both times in Toronto.

RN: I’ve taken the home team at every other turn, so give me the Bulls here. Chicago was sneaky good after the All-Star break, with the best defense in the NBA over that span. The Bulls will find a way to grind this one out.