NBA Playoff Predictions: Which Team and Player Will Stand Alone After the Finals

Who’s going to win it all? Which player faces the most pressure? SI’s experts make their picks.

With Friday’s conclusion of the play-in tournament, the 2023 NBA playoffs field is set. The Heat held off the Bulls late to clinch the final spot in the East, while the Timberwolves blew out the Thunder to lock in the No. 8 seed in the west. 

Our NBA experts make their picks through to the Finals, while also eyeing potential underdogs and players who face the most pressure this postseason.

Complete First-Round Schedule for the NBA Playoffs

Chris Herring

Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports

Predictions through the NBA Finals

First Round
Eastern Conference

• No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 8 Miami Heat.
  Bucks in 5.

• No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Atlanta Hawks
  Celtics in 6.

• No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 6 Brooklyn Nets
  Sixers in 5.

• No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 New York Knicks
  Cavs in 7.

Western Conference

• No. 1 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves
  Nuggets in 6.

• No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers
  Grizzlies in 6.

• No. 3 Sacramento Kings vs. No. 6 Golden State Warriors
  Warriors in 6.

• No. 4 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
  Suns in 6.

Second Round

• East: Bucks over Cavs in 6, Celtics over Sixers in 7
• West: Warriors over Grizzlies in 7, Suns over Nuggets in 6

Conference Finals

• East: Bucks over Celtics in 6
• West: Suns over Warriors in 7

Finals

• Bucks vs. Suns
  Milwaukee in 7.

Why the Bucks: There’s still a really good case to be made that Milwaukee would have won the entire thing last season if Khris Middleton had been healthy. Now, after a brief absence to end this regular season, he is healthy. That’s a terrifying reality for the rest of the league, given the Bucks had the league’s best record with Middleton missing more than half the season. They just have so much balance to go with their championship experience.

The Finals MVP will be …

Since I’m picking the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo seems like the logical choice. He is impactful on both ends and has been a Finals MVP before—that seems like a fair enough explanation.

Which No. 5 or lower seed will most likely go on a deep run?

I’ve enjoyed the Kings more than just about anyone outside of Sacramento, but I am going to go with the Warriors. They just got Andrew Wiggins back, and Gary Payton II recently returned healthy. They have a ghastly road record, but they’ll be playing just down the road in Sacramento, a city with an airport that, until recently, sold Warriors gear (and no Kings gear) due to the broad support they enjoy in the area.

Who is the player with the most playoff pressure?

Without trying to be cute, I’m going to say it’s no one. We could argue it’s Chris Paul, because he’s getting older and doesn’t have a title. Or that it’s Nikola Jokić or Joel Embiid, one of them needing to prove their place as one of the game’s best two or three players for the past several years. But I can’t work myself up enough to call this “pressure.” They’ll be all-time greats regardless of whether they win a title, and will likely draw (sometimes toxic) MVP talk again next year. We’ll talk about them for a long, long time, and they’ll enjoy generational wealth regardless. Not everyone wins. That’s the reality when dynasties take place.

Chris Mannix

Gary A. Vasquez/USA Today Sports

Predictions through the NBA Finals

First Round
Eastern Conference

• No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 8 Miami Heat
  Bucks in 5.

• No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Atlanta Hawks
  Celtics in 5.

• No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 6 Brooklyn Nets
  Sixers in 5.

• No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 New York Knicks
  Cavs in 7.

Western Conference

• No. 1 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves
  Nuggets in 6.

• No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers
  Lakers in 6.

• No. 3 Sacramento Kings vs. No. 6 Golden State Warriors
  Warriors in 7.

• No. 4 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
  Suns in 7.

Second Round

• East: Bucks over Cavs in 6, Celtics over Sixers in 6.
• West: Lakers over Warriors in 7, Suns over Nuggets in 7.

Conference Finals

• East: Bucks over Celtics in 7.
• West: Lakers over Suns in 7.

Finals

• Bucks vs. Lakers
  Milwaukee in 6.

Why the Bucks: Milwaukee finished the season with the NBA’s best record and was beating the pulp out of the competition in the closing months. Middleton (knocks wood) appears healthy, and Milwaukee will take one of the NBA’s deepest and best defensive teams into the postseason with home court advantage. Sometimes we should believe what our eyes tell us: Milwaukee is the class of the NBA. 

The Finals MVP will be …

Giannis. Again—believe your eyes. Regardless of whether Giannis wins MVP—and he got my vote—he will be the best player on the floor in most series the Bucks play in. He averaged 30.2 points, 12.8 rebounds and 5.1 assists (on 57% shooting) during Milwaukee’s title-winning run in 2021. Expect another brilliant run from Antetokounmpo in this one.

Which No. 5 or lower seed will most likely go on a deep run?

Uh, the Lakers? Don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the Lakers’ bandwagon has been filling up the past few weeks. Just remember who has been driving it. L.A. isn’t exactly steamrolling into the postseason—that eyeball-bleeding performance against the Timberwolves in the play-in was forgettable—but they won six of the last seven in the regular season, are healthy and have a 1–2 punch no team in the West (sorry, Phoenix) can match. They will also open the playoffs on the more favorable side of the playoff bracket. They will win the West.

Who is the player with the most playoff pressure?

Nikola Jokić. Easy one. To this point there have been rational reasons for Jokić’s early playoff flameouts. Jamal Murray’s injuries. Michael Porter Jr.’s injuries. Those excuses are gone. Denver is healthy and will have home court advantage through the conference playoffs. The draw is difficult—the Suns or Clippers loom in the second round, and the Nuggets aren’t exactly stocked with wing defenders—but Jokić will be expected to navigate Denver through it. If he doesn’t, critics that have called Jokić a regular-season performer will have more meat to chew on. 

Rohan Nadkarni

Isaiah J. Downing/USA TODAY Sports

Predictions through the NBA Finals

First Round
Eastern Conference

• No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 8 Miami Heat
  Bucks in 4.

• No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Atlanta Hawks
  Celtics in 4.

• No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 6 Brooklyn Nets
  Sixers in 5.

• No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 New York Knicks
  Cavs in 5.

Western Conference

• No. 1 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves
  Nuggets in 5.

• No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers
  Grizzlies in 6.

• No. 3 Sacramento Kings vs. No. 6 Golden State Warriors
  Warriors in 5.

• No. 4 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
  Suns in 6.

Second Round

• East: Bucks over Cavs in 6, Celtics over Sixers in 7.
• West: Grizzlies over Warriors in 7, Nuggets over Suns in 7.

Conference Finals

• East: Bucks over Celtics in 7.
• West: Nuggets over Grizzlies in 7.

Finals

• Bucks vs. Nuggets
  Milwaukee in 6.

Why the Bucks: It’s a wide-open year, and Milwaukee will have the best player in every series it plays in, as well as the best depth the front office has ever put together around Giannis. The Bucks’ offense can be dicey, but they should be able to grind out enough points if their best three players are healthy. Their defense is as good as anyone’s. What it really comes down to in my opinion is in the highest leverage moments; there’s no one I trust more to deliver right now than Giannis.

The Finals MVP will be …

Nikola Jokić is primed to have the best playoffs of his career. I think the Nuggets’ bench will ultimately be their downfall, but Joker has played at an MVP level this season, and for the first time in years, he will enter the playoffs with his best teammates healthy and ready to go. I expect a deep run for the Nuggets and an aggressive version of Jokić from Game 1 of Round 1.

Which No. 5 or lower seed will most likely go on a deep run?

The Warriors are the obvious pick, in my opinion. The return of Andrew Wiggins is massive and possibly a playoff-swinging development. Golden State also drew the inexperienced Kings in the first round, in a series that also partially negates Sacramento’s home court advantage. I know everyone is in a tizzy about the Lakers. And yet it’s been a very, very long time since Steph, Klay and Dray lost a playoff series in which all of them played every game. The Warriors—and particularly Steph—strike much more fear into opponents than any other team in the NBA. Even after a frustrating season, the Dubs deserve to be mentioned alongside any contender in the West.

Who is the player with the most playoff pressure?

Joel Embiid. The Sixers’ big man is likely to win MVP and receive the trophy sometime early during the postseason. After years of campaigning for the award, Embiid now needs some playoff success to back up his alleged case of disrespect. His adversaries—Giannis and Jokić—have both had deeper playoff runs. If Embiid is to make his first conference finals, he’ll almost certainly have to go through the Celtics, a team that’s eliminated him multiple times in the playoffs. If he carries the Sixers to the Finals, he’ll likely have toppled Giannis and the Bucks as well. A run to the Finals could give Embiid an argument for best player alive. Anything short of the conference finals, though, and Embiid will face massive criticism.