Suns vs. Nuggets Will Come Down to These Five Things

It’s Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray vs. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. What will decide the series?

Suns vs. Nuggets is a conference semifinals matchup worthy of the next round. The series features a pair of former MVPs in Nikola Jokić and Kevin Durant, a potential future MVP in Devin Booker and a clash of two of the NBA’s top playmakers—Chris Paul and Jamal Murray. To size up this matchup, we asked a veteran Western Conference assistant to weigh in on several key questions. Answers were lightly edited for clarity.

Jokić is on a mission to add an NBA title to his trophy haul :: Matt Krohn/USA TODAY Sports

On Phoenix defending Jokić

If I’m Phoenix, I’m looking at what our coverages are with him. They don’t like to double the post this year, to me. Beating Denver is about how you take care of the rim against them. It's a huge deal when they’re good, and for these playoffs they’ve been good. They get to the rim, they impact the game at the rim and they’re able to score there.

So you used to say with Denver like, “Hey, don’t double Jokić because he’s such a good passer. Make him try to beat you one on one and then be ready for whatever you need to late in the game.” I think it’s changed the last two years. When I’ve studied him, it was double team the f--- out of him and make these other guys beat you. In their wins, they are very good at post-up efficiency, and in their losses they are very bad.

That to me is where it would start with him. The other thing I like about being aggressive with him in the post and taking him out of that is he'll go away from it because he knows these other guys can’t beat people shooting threes. So he’ll go away from it, and now you limit the different areas that you really have to guard him as it gets later in the game.

Phoenix will once again lean on its superstars against Denver :: Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

On Denver slowing down Durant and Booker

Aaron Gordon to me is the right guy to put on Durant. They really didn’t have very many matchups, but he has the skill set to defend him. In the past Bruce Brown has had success against Booker. But KCP and him, to me, with Gordon, seem like the right guys to throw at them. Jeff Green maybe for spot minutes.

And then you have to have your traps and your other stuff ready. The Clippers did a terrible job of it, but Phoenix is giving you Josh Okogie and Torrey Craig. And I know Craig shoots a pretty good percentage, but he and Okogie aren’t shooters. Denver has to make those guys take a lot of shots. L.A. went down to them, with Booker going for 45 and those other guys not finding the ball. Paul’s right there with Booker. He’s a weapon for you when those other guys have the ball. He can make a shot, but that’s not what he wants to do. He’s not going to take 10 threes. That’s not his game.

I would be mindful of how much ball pressure I put on Booker. I would really try to shrink the floor behind him and Durant. And how you handle the isolation stuff is where it starts. And then it’s how you handle the pick-and-roll game for those two guys, specifically Booker. I thought he did an excellent job of destroying the Clippers in pick-and-rolls. Jokić, I don’t know how much he can be up, he can be back, but he does what he does in pick-and-roll. So they’re going to have to be good with their aggressiveness in pick-and-roll schemes and rotating and trying to find how to not rotate to guys like Okogie or Craig.

On Phoenix defending Denver’s shooters

I would say I want the ball to find Gordon as much as possible. I want the ball to find Brown when he’s in. I want the ball to find Green. In a lot of ways, when defending the guys who can shoot like Murray and Michael Porter Jr., what’s your base pick-and-roll coverage? And then it’s knowing who you’re closing out to and how you want to close out to them. And I want Denver to beat me with these guys making shots. It’s the same with Phoenix. I want the guys that don’t shoot it well or I’m willing to live with shooting challenged shots to do so until I’m forced to change.

Mal doin' Mal things pic.twitter.com/xqzcMkPPej

— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) April 24, 2023

That is the big thing. How do we force it to them? The other thing with Denver is you have to limit their transition game. They’re not Memphis, but it’s the same thing if Memphis can’t score in transition. If Denver can’t score in transition, it very much changes how they play and how effective they are at offense.

Then the last thing with them is the Murray-Jokić two-man game at the end of the game. How are you handling that? What is your base? What’s your adjustment? For the Suns, usually it’s switching it, switching pick-and-rolls with Deandre Ayton. Are they able to put a guy like Durant on Murray late in the game and switch that pick-and-roll so that way it negates some of its effectiveness?

On Paul’s impact on this series

He has to not get exploited defensively. He has to be a competent-to-good spot-up shooter. If they make the ball find him and then he is going to have to, in enough games in this series, be a good pick-and-roll player. I just don’t know. I don’t know how much he has left in the tank. There are times he looks really old out there. But maybe he summons the energy for a little longer.

On the wild card in this series

What we’ve seen in the playoffs a ton—and I think it’s going to come into play in this series—is offensive rebounding, or limiting offensive rebounds, is critical. It’s deciding a ton of games. In Denver, their ability to offensive-rebound, or Phoenix’s ability to offensive rebound or keep people off the boards, is huge. A lot of these first-round series have been decided by the team that’s rebounding. So keep an eye on that.

Bruce breakin' LOOSE pic.twitter.com/coMFR4pt3K

— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) April 24, 2023

I’m interested to see what Brown gives Denver, because I would think Phoenix is going to try to dare him to shoot and make some plays. He’s had a hell of a season. That to me is a guy that I’m intrigued to see how he does here. I’ve loved the way he’s played in Denver. He’s improved since he has been there. He’s got the ability to be a good defender, and, if he can play solid on the offensive end and get some stuff done there, I think that’s someone who’s going to be impactful.