The Celtics Should Be the East’s Overwhelming Favorite, but They Sure Don’t Look Like It

The question about this Boston team is whether it has the tenacity and killer instinct to go all the way.

Take a good look at the NBA playoffs landscape.

The West looks loaded, with the top-seeded Nuggets looking highly likely to draw either a dangerous Lakers club or the defending-champion Warriors, who have still never dropped a series before the NBA Finals in their Big Three’s lifespan.

On the flip side out East, you have the Knicks, who are prone to offensive droughts, taking on a hobbled yet experienced Miami group that just took down the title-favorite Bucks in the first round. Opposite that bracket, there’s Philadelphia fending for itself without league MVP Joel Embiid, who was listed as doubtful for Game 2 in the Sixers’ East semifinal series.

All of which leaves us with the Celtics, the defending Eastern Conference champs who should be seen as the title favorite based on all the above. But after everything we’ve seen, in their surprising Game 1 defeat and the events that led up to it, the overarching question about this Boston team is whether it has the tenacity and killer instinct to go all the way.

Boasting last year’s Defensive Player of the Year in Marcus Smart, the Celtics have as much pure defensive talent as any remaining playoff team. They have two All-NBA level playmakers, and a bevy of key role players. They’re experienced, having been shaped not only by the Finals trip last season, but also a number of conference finals trips between leaders Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

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So why—after losing Game 1 at home against the Joel Embiid-less Sixers, and having a tougher-than-expected time in ousting Atlanta in the opening round—does it feel like Boston is struggling to look like the overwhelming favorite it should be, without the Bucks in the picture? The Celtics, who rated second in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season, currently rank 12th in the postseason, tied for last among remaining teams in the playoffs after surrendering 116.3 points per 100 possessions.

Even before the Celtics fell behind the Sixers after James Harden’s dominant 45-point showing, there were concerns they might not assert themselves despite Embiid missing the start of the series. Simply put: Boston’s been prone to upsets this season when its opponents are missing a key player, losing to Oklahoma City without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Miami without Jimmy Butler, Phoenix without Devin Booker, Washington without Bradley Beal and, more recently, Game 5 of the first round, despite the Hawks missing suspended guard Dejounte Murray. It all suggests that Boston takes it foot off the pedal to some degree when it sees a shorthanded foe.

Following the suspension of then coach Ime Udoka, a key question faced the Celtics: Would they still play with a fire without the man who didn’t hesitate to call out their shortcomings so publicly? Rookie coach Joe Mazzulla, who was promoted to replace Udoka, has taken a far softer stance with the team in the media.

Regardless of whether Embiid plays Wednesday night, it won’t be surprising if the Celtics rebound to win Game 2–higher seeds who’ve lost Game 1 at home have come back to win Game 2 a whopping 14 consecutive times.

Still, even with an abundance of talent, experience, solid health and, perhaps, the clearest remaining path to a crown, this confounding Boston club has repeatedly given us ample reason to question whether it has the will to win the title this season.