NBA Draft Big Board: Analyzing the Biggest Risers, Fallers

Several prospects have significantly boosted their stock over the past month of combine and pro day events—while others have faltered.

The finalized pool for the 2023 NBA draft has led to some pretty major changes in Sports Illustrated’s Big Board ahead of next week’s big day. 

While there hasn’t been any movement amongst the consensus top three prospects (Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller), the last month of combine and pro day events as well as additional intel from around the league have caused some major shifts. 

Here’s a look at the biggest risers and fallers in SI’s latest board.

For the full big board, click here.

Anthony Black, Guard, Arkansas

Previous Ranking: No. 6
Current Ranking: No. 5

Black climbs into the top five despite concerns about his lack of assertiveness offensively. In studying his tape further, Black’s impact on winning is immense: His ability to find teammates in the right spots, defend multiple positions and be a positive contributor with or without the basketball fits so many teams well. Tyrese Haliburton is an interesting potential comparison, and while I wouldn’t bet on Black ever reaching Haliburton’s 20-ppg average he posted this season, a number like that felt unlikely when evaluating Haliburton out of college. I’d rather continue to build my team around Black than some of the more interesting wing/forwards likely to come off the board in the top 10 like Jarace Walker, Cam Whitmore and Taylor Hendricks.

Bilal Coulibaly, Wing, Metropolitans 92

Previous Ranking: No. 31
Current Ranking: No. 14

This is a huge move, driven largely by Coulibaly’s impressive play lately during the French playoffs helping Victor Wembanyama’s team to the LNB Pro A finals. Previously most well-regarded for his defense, Coulibaly has consistently expanded his offensive game throughout the season in France. It’s hard not to be intrigued by his physical tools and fluidity, and he’s still just 18 years old, making him one of the younger players in this draft. Don’t be surprised if he ends up in the lottery.

Lively averaged just 5.2 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game in his only season with Duke, but he has shown more potential in individual workouts :: Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports

Dereck Lively II, Center, Duke

Previous Ranking: No. 22
Current Ranking: No. 17

Lively’s pro day in Los Angeles earned plenty of acclaim, showing off impressive three-point shooting after rarely showcasing that part of his game as a freshman at Duke. While a largely scripted workout shouldn’t be the overwhelming factor in drafting a player compared to the vast amounts of game tape available, it was a much-needed positive impression from Lively on NBA personnel after an uneven college season. Showing off untapped offensive upside changes Lively’s ceiling, given how impactful he likely will be as a shot blocker in the NBA. That makes him an intriguing pick from anywhere from the late lottery to the early 20s.

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Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Wing, Marquette

Previous Ranking: No. 48
Current Ranking: No. 32

Prosper’s dominant scrimmage performance and overall strong week of testing at the combine vaulted him from a potential value pick in the mid-to-late second round to a legitimate candidate to come off the board in the first round. He’s not a player who needs many plays drawn up for him to positively impact the game, as evidenced by the 21 points in 22 minutes he scored in his lone combine scrimmage built mostly on effort and aggressiveness. He should be able to defend multiple positions and space the floor from his first day in the NBA and could help a contender immediately.

Seth Lundy, Wing, Penn State

Previous Ranking: NR
Current Ranking: No. 40

Lundy helped himself with a strong week at the NBA draft combine that was further buoyed by other second-round targets electing to return to school for another college season. He’s one of the best pure shooters in the draft and has some versatility as a shotmaker, considered by Big Ten coaches to be among the best off-the-bounce shooters in the league. That jump shot is his ticket to minutes at the NBA level, but he’s long and physical enough to hold his own defensively and played for a coach with NBA experience in Micah Shrewsberry at Penn State.

Dariq Whitehead, Wing, Duke

Previous Ranking: No. 16
Current Ranking: No. 26

The news of a second foot surgery in less than a year for Whitehead adds further concern he could drop back into the late part of the first round. There’s still a lot to like with Whitehead’s game if he returns to full health—he was one of the top recruits in the 2022 high school class for a reason. But the repeated injury woes he has run into in the past 365 days combined with his ineffectiveness at Duke does open the door for his stock to keep falling heading into draft day.

Gregory “GG” Jackson II, Wing, South Carolina

Previous Ranking: No. 25
Current Ranking: No. 37

The more I evaluate Jackson, the harder I find it to justify using a first-round pick on him compared to some of the other options on the board. He’s a clear swing for the fences, a bet on the upside of landing one of the youngest players in the draft in an archetype heavily valued by NBA teams. Still, Jackson still feels very far away from actually helping an NBA team win, illustrated at least partially by the fact that South Carolina greatly improved a season ago when he wasn’t on the floor. I’d rather draft a player like Prosper or Jaime Jaquez Jr. in the late first and get a ready-made contributor who has won at a high level.