Five Biggest Questions Ahead of NBA Free Agency

What’s really happening in Houston? Plus, unpacking James Harden’s decision, checking in on Portland and picking a sneaky team to watch.

When free agency formally begins at 6 p.m. ET on Friday, the landscape will look decidedly different. That’s because the new collective bargaining agreement, a 676-page document formally ratified this week, has fundamentally changed the way teams operate. The newly negotiated second tax apron—which punishes teams that cross it with both financial penalties and the loss of valuable flexibility critical to roster building—has become the closest thing to a hard cap the NBA has ever seen.

It’s already had an impact: The Clippers cut Eric Gordon to save $110 million in luxury tax payments. Golden State dumped Jordan Poole to avoid future issues with the second apron. Atlanta offloaded John Collins for largely the same reasons.

The result will be a transaction period with a lot of uncertainty. Let’s examine five of the more interesting questions headed into free agency.

Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports

James Harden did what?

In what qualified as a (pre)free-agency stunner, James Harden opted into the final year of his contract in Philadelphia on Thursday with the understanding—or at least the belief—that the 76ers would trade him.

Let’s unpack this …

• It’s clear that the market for Harden, across the NBA, wasn’t as robust as he hoped it would be. Harden is coming off an All-Star–caliber season. But he will be 34 this summer and despite putting up strong numbers (21 points, a league-best 10.7 assists), he has shown signs of regression.
• Philadelphia was interested in a Harden return but wasn’t interested in anything long term. The 76ers, sources told Sports Illustrated, preferred a two-year deal. Would the Sixers have gotten to three? Who knows, but it’s clear the team wasn’t going to go all-in to bring Harden back.
• Neither, it seems, was Houston. For months rumors of a Harden-Houston reunion have bounced around the NBA. As SI reported Wednesday, the Rockets did have multiple, high-level discussions last season about bringing Harden back, with enthusiasm coming from ownership. Over the past few weeks, however, Houston—which has more than $60 million in salary cap space—has shifted its interest elsewhere, with Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks reportedly among the top targets. (More on that below.)
• Still—the opt-in is puzzling. Sure, by opting in, Harden expands his potential destinations. The Clippers, who did not have the flexibility to sign Harden outright, have already engaged the Sixers on Harden, sources confirmed to SI. The Knicks will get in the mix. Miami, too. But Harden, who will earn $35.6 million next season, is no longer extension eligible, meaning he will enter free agency next summer weeks before turning 35. The calculus that there will be a better deal for him then than there is now is … interesting.
• Harden will have his preferred destinations, but Philadelphia is already casting a wide net. The Sixers “are shopping [Harden] everywhere,” a rival exec told SI, with Philadelphia prioritizing NBA talent in early talks. The Sixers, it seems, want to do everything to compete for a championship while Joel Embiid, the reigning MVP, is in his prime. That could mean a drawn-out process. Or even a situation where Harden is on the roster in October.

What’s really happening in Houston?

A question several player agents have asked in recent days: Is Houston a desired destination? Or are the Rockets just leverage for free agents to squeeze more money out of a preferred destination?

It certainly wouldn’t be the first time a rebuilding team with cap space was used this way.

How things play out with VanVleet will be telling. Houston is very interested in VanVleet, a 29-year-old playmaker who would bring production (19.3 points, 7.2 assists) and professionalism into that locker room. And the Rockets, with that aforementioned cap space, have the ability to make VanVleet a multiyear offer in the neighborhood of $30 million per season. Or more.

Is VanVleet ready to commit to Houston? Or is he hoping the threat of Houston encourages Toronto to up its offer?

One player that is interested in Houston’s cash is Dillon Brooks, the soon-to-be ex-Grizzlies forward. Brooks took a lot of heat for the end in Memphis—too much heat, in my opinion—but is a sturdy defender who would instantly improve the Rockets’ 28th-ranked defense. Houston has Brooks high on its list of free agents, with new coach Ime Udoka determined to turn around the Rockets’ defense next season.

Is there more than one landing spot for Kyrie?

Probably not.

Oh—you need more? Kyrie Irving’s reported plans to take a meeting with Phoenix this weekend—a team that can offer Irving only the veterans minimum and can’t engage in sign-and-trade talks due to hard cap restrictions—is little more than a transparent attempt by Irving’s reps to create leverage, just as the well-timed revelation of Irving’s pursuit of LeBron James—who is not a free agent and has shown no interest in leaving Los Angeles—to play in Dallas was Irving’s way of showing he can be an effective recruiter for a team that has historically struggled to land top free agents.

Mavs officials, I’m told, have been largely amused by Irving’s exploits. Dallas remains committed to bringing Irving back, and while there will undoubtedly be haggling over the length of the contract—the Mavericks would prefer to re-sign Irving on a three-year deal while Irving is seeking a longer one—and other teams (Houston, Philadelphia) could sniff around, it would be a shock to most league observers if Irving was anywhere but Dallas next season.

Who is the sneaky team to watch?

San Antonio. Don’t expect the Spurs, with $37-ish million in cap room, to make a play for Irving or join the hunt for Harden. But with Victor Wembanyama on board to anchor one of the NBA’s youngest rosters, rival execs expect San Antonio to be aggressive in pursuit of quality veterans. Former Spur Jakob Poeltl, who may prove too pricey for Toronto, is an option San Antonio will consider, sources say. Another: Brook Lopez, an elite defender who has a proven track record of success playing alongside long, uber-talented forwards.

And what about Bruce Brown? Few players this offseason figure to draw as much interest as Brown, a versatile, two-way player who is highly valued by several contenders. Denver wants him back—right, Michael Malone?—but Nuggets officials acknowledge the obvious challenge (the most Denver can offer Brown next season is $7.8 million, a number he could conceivably double elsewhere) and are bracing to lose him. Brown will almost certainly receive offers for the full mid-level exception ($12.4 million) with the Lakers, Pacers and Mavericks among the teams expected to pursue him. San Antonio could join them.

Can Portland upgrade enough to satisfy Damian Lillard?

All eyes—particularly those in Miami, Brooklyn and any city with an interest in acquiring Damian Lillard—will be on Portland this week. The Trail Blazers have vowed to be aggressive in adding veteran talent, but it remains to be seen which assets they are willing to deal (Anfernee Simons, draft capital) will bring back. The rumor of Draymond Green to Portland set social media ablaze for a minute this week but, as has been reported here and elsewhere, all signs continue to point to Green re-upping with Golden State.

The team the Blazers will keep a close eye on is Toronto. Portland has kicked the tires on both OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam in recent weeks and likely will again once it’s determined what direction the Raptors are taking.

But will that be enough? Lillard has made it clear he wants to compete for championships, and it’s hard to see how landing Anunoby or Siakam gets them there, especially if it costs Simons. Still, if we take Blazers GM Joe Cronin at his word, Portland will spend the next few days doing whatever it takes to make Lillard believe Portland is where he should be.