Nothing Is Guaranteed When It Comes to James Harden

Whether the star guard returns to the 76ers or is traded elsewhere, he'll have to play his best basketball and prove the gamble is worth it.

Given the reporting that’s emerged over the past week—that even after deciding to opt into the final year of his contract, James Harden wants out of Philadelphia—it’s more than fair to wonder what exactly the star guard is thinking.

For starters, the Sixers have a contending roster. Sure, it isn’t perfect. But it’s one that’s capable of winning the whole thing if league MVP Joel Embiid is healthy, young star Tyrese Maxey keeps improving, Harden is solid and everything else plays out in their favor. It’s not a situation that a future Hall of Fame player with no championships to their name would generally back away from. But beyond that, on the most basic level, there’s also the fact that Harden would now be moving to his fourth team in four seasons after spending seven seasons as an MVP candidate and perennial contender with the Rockets; an almost-Westbrookian carousel for a player whose game is hardly as predicated on athleticism as his. Even if Harden gets his way and soon lands with the Clippers, it certainly doesn’t reflect well on him that each scenario becomes untenable for him so quickly.

All of which brings up an interesting point as reports surface that the Sixers—and executive Daryl Morey specifically—would like Harden to return for this final year of his deal. On its face, it seems a little odd, particularly with superstar Damian Lillard available via trade.

But aside from it potentially being a bit of a leverage play (by having Harden appear less disgruntled with the Sixers, hence propping up his trade value ever so slightly), there’s also the fact that Philadelphia would go into the season expecting Harden to give his best effort.

Harden was traded to the 76ers in February of 2022 :: Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports

Yes, in theory that’s something any team should expect of any player. But we’ve seen an unmotivated Harden before. In the final days of his Houston tenure, he failed to score more than 20 points in four straight games—a streak that marked his longest such scoring drought in eight years at the time. “I literally have done everything I can. This situation is crazy. It’s not something that I don’t think can be fixed,” Harden said, all but daring the club to trade him.

The Sixers would obviously be banking on better effort than that, if only because Harden has plenty of incentive to perform. With this being his last season on his contract, and with him turning 34 next month, he wouldn’t have the space to give anything less than his best effort. He’s thought to covet one last long-term, big-money deal. (That’s reportedly what frustrated him about the Sixers, who aren’t keen on giving him one.) It’s possible a desperate team folds and gives him that next summer, along the lines of what happened with Kyrie Irving getting his three-year, $126 million deal that carries a player option in the final season. But short of that, Harden would have to make the best of the last year he has with Philadelphia before exploring a broader market and a different landscape than the current one. There are only a handful of teams that need a floor general at his price tag, and even fewer would want to part ways with real assets if they aren’t sure about his ability or desire beyond this season.

Yes, the skill is still there. Undeniably. But even with his numbers—an average of 21 points and a league-best 10.7 assists in what should have been another All-Star campaign for him—the night-to-night consistency is more of a flicker than a constant brightness; at least in the postseason. That showed in the season-ending series against Boston, when Harden had 45 points without Embiid in Game 1 of the conference semifinals, and then poured in 42 points in Game 5, but then had just 67 points in the other five games combined. That included a trainwreck of a Game 7, in which he had nine points, seven assists and five giveaways while logging a -30 plus/minus on the night in the biggest game of the season.

As we’ve learned throughout Harden’s career, particularly in the postseason, there are no guarantees. It isn’t necessarily likely that Philadelphia would win it all if Harden returns, and Lillard would almost certainly be a better fit if he could be had for a reasonable enough price. But if the Sixers can’t land him, and the team has to make nice with Harden for the sake of one more run, there’s enough at stake for him personally to where it could make sense to bring him back for one more run, even if he is frustrated with the organization.