Tyrese Maxey Is the True Key to Philadelphia’s Success

James Harden and Joel Embiid have dominated the offseason chatter around the Sixers, but don’t lose sight of the fourth-year guard.

As conversations around the Sixers continue to swirl—with league MVP Joel Embiid recently saying he’d want to win a title in Philadelphia “or anywhere else” and executive Daryl Morey explaining he’d work to fulfill James Harden’s trade request to go elsewhere if he can get a sensible return for him—one factor looms heavily in the background for this coming season: Tyrese Maxey.

The fourth-year guard, who turns 23 years old in November, will almost certainly need to be sensational this coming season in order for the Sixers to make a run at the title.

Perhaps that’s an obvious takeaway in light of the team having been knocked out in the second round five times over the past six seasons—that players with growth potential will need to bring even more to pull Philly over the line in 2024. But Maxey’s role becomes more vital with Harden, 33, hoping for an exit strategy to the Clippers, and Embiid, 29, talking like he might be on the lookout for one if the contending Sixers fall short again over the next season or two.

Tyrese Maxey is set to become a free agent next summer :: Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

Maxey has already made great strides through his first three years in the league, more than doubling his scoring output from eight points per night as a rookie, to an average of 17.5 points in his second season, then jumping to 20.3 points on career-best efficiency in his third year.

The question—particularly with Damian Lillard having asked for a trade out of Portland—now becomes how much better will Maxey get with his prime presumably still years away? Data-crunching site FiveThirtyEight made annual NBA player projections, and last season they had guard Jamal Murray, now fresh off his first NBA title, as Maxey’s top player comparison.

And the similarities are certainly there, illustrating why Morey and the Sixers would be highly reluctant to part ways with a young talent like Maxey. (He’s set to become a restricted free agent next summer.) Both he and Murray are fantastic shooters, with Murray having shot just over 40% from three in his last two seasons, and Maxey having drilled 41% of his tries from deep in his career. For all of Murray’s playmaking talent, he doesn’t create the most looks for his team; two-time MVP Nikola Jokić does. (Harden led the NBA in assists per game last season, taking some floor-general pressure off of Maxey.) Both are crafty in getting around defenders, though Maxey relies on speed whereas Murray has fantastic footwork. Neither is necessarily seen as a defensive specialist, but both have good instincts that occasionally leave them in a position to make disruptive plays despite being a bit undersized relative to the wings they’re guarding.

From a numbers standpoint, the Sixers were better—12.4 points better than opponents per 100 possessions, compared to 8.7 points better per 100 possessions—when Maxey played alongside Embiid compared to Harden playing alongside the reigning MVP. In the 734 minutes that all three shared the court, Philadelphia won by 9.6 points per 100 possessions, a net rating that, if extrapolated over the entire season, would far exceed Boston’s league-best mark.

Understandably, there will be considerable attention focused on Harden in the coming weeks and months. He’s a future Hall of Famer, reportedly unhappy yet again with his situation; a reality that is a ready-made recipe for headlines, particularly when playing for a contending club. But regardless of what happens with him, the biggest swing player for the Sixers this year might be Maxey, given what his upside looks like and what it might ultimately mean for Embiid’s future.