Saudi Arabia Could Pose a Legitimate Threat to NBA

LeBron James playfully indicated Monday he’d accept paychecks from the controversial Arab regime. But that possibility is no joke to the NBA.

As tweets go, they were … interesting.

On Monday night, after news of Saudi Arabian club Al-Hilal offering French soccer star Kylian Mbappé an astonishing $776 million to play in the Kingdom next season, LeBron James took to Twitter with a message for his 52.6 million followers.

“Me headed to Saudi when they call @RichPaul4 & @mavcarter for that 1 year deal!” James tweeted, with a GIF of Forrest Gump sprinting down a street underneath it.

Some 30 minutes later, Draymond Green fired off a message of his own.

“They got basketball leagues too right? I don’t [think] the ink on my contract has dried up yet,” Green tweeted.

Indeed, Saudi Arabia does have a league—the Saudi Basketball League, a 12-member organization that was founded in 1976. Basketball is a growing sport in Saudi Arabia. As recently as 2018, the Saudi men’s team won the Arab National Championship.

In recent years, Saudi Arabia, backed by its Public Investment Fund (PIF)—that’s reportedly valued at $650 billion—has dived headfirst into sports. In golf, where the Saudi-backed LIV Tour recently announced a merger with the PGA. In soccer, where Cristiano Ronaldo inked a deal that could pay him as much as $200 million per year—per year—to play in the Kingdom. In boxing, where the Saudis have hosted everything from high-level heavyweight title fights (Anthony Joshua–Oleksandr Usyk) to high-profile events (Jake Paul–Tommy Fury).

In Formula One. In horse racing. In professional wrestling.

Could basketball be next?

Absolutely.

James may or may not have been serious in his tweet about Saudi Arabia, but the nation would provide a threat to the NBA if it decided to push billions of dollars into basketball :: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports

An aggressive Saudi Arabia is an NBA nightmare. What’s to stop Saudi sports officials from making a $500 million per year offer to Giannis Antetokounmpo? Or a $600 million per year deal to Nikola Jokić? Or a $766 million—a number we choose for symmetry’s sake—to LeBron? The Saudis are not bothered by short-term losses. The billions pumped into LIV was proof of that. And the NBA, thanks to the efforts of David Stern and Adam Silver, has become a global game. There probably isn’t a sport more attractive to the Saudis than basketball.

Can the NBA fight it? About as well as the PGA did, probably. There will be plenty of players who decline offers due to Saudi Arabia’s well-documented record on human rights violations. But, like with the PGA, there will be a lot willing to overlook them for the money.

The only way to fight it would be to tear up the current collective bargaining agreement. NBA players make a lot of money. But the reality is the top tier stars are underpaid. James will make $47.6 million next season with the Lakers. To the NBA, he’s probably worth four times that. James sells tickets. Drives ratings. Generates interest. Whether in Cleveland, Miami or Los Angeles, James is a one-man revenue driver. As is Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Luka Dončić.

The only shot the NBA would have to compete with the Saudis is to remove the cap on maximum salaries. And even that might not be enough.

So far, Saudi Arabia has not expressed a public interest in jumping into basketball.

But the NBA would be foolish to think they won’t.

On to the mailbag …

Will Chris Paul come off the bench? —@Julioa082

This will certainly be among the more interesting camp story lines, won’t it? Paul has played in 1,214 regular-season games—and started all of them. Ditto for the 149 games he suited up for in the playoffs. He averaged 13.9 points and 8.9 assists last season and is just a year removed from leading the NBA in dimes. On many teams Paul is a starter.

Golden State, though, isn’t one of them. Or at least it shouldn’t be. The Warriors’ starting backcourt (Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson) has been set for a decade. Andrew Wiggins is invaluable as a wing defender. Draymond Green can play center in a small-ball lineup in spurts, but Golden State needs the rebounding of Kevon Looney with the starting group.

Where Golden State struggles are in the minutes Curry is off the floor. Last year the Warriors had a 113 offensive rating that ranked in the league’s 35th percentile and turned the ball over on 16.4% of possessions with Curry off the floor, per Cleaning the Glass. With Paul running the second unit—which will feature Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and Paul’s former teammate, Dario Šarić—those numbers should improve.

Will Paul accept a bench role? He was noncommittal when asked earlier this month. And it can’t be easy for a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer to accept a demotion. But it could also be an opportunity. Paul, who has rarely relied on athleticism, could reinvent himself as a reserve, a reinvention that could make the 38-year-old Paul, who is entering the final year of his contract, a sought-after player in free agency next summer.

Mannix, are we getting close to a decision on Damian Lillard? Portland can’t bring him to training camp can they? —Steve S., Oakland

Honestly—I’ve got no update to offer. Miami has made Portland an offer for Lillard. The Blazers don’t seem to like it, and, at this point, the Heat don’t seem inclined to beef it up. It’s believed there is a third team out there willing to get involved to absorb Tyler Herro, which would generate another first-round pick to send Portland’s way. But right now, talks appear to be at an impasse.

Do the Blazers want to bring an unhappy Lillard to training camp? Probably not, but Joe Cronin, Portland’s top basketball exec, also recognizes that this is a once-in-an-executive’s-lifetime moment. He has to maximize the return on Lillard and based on what Cronin has said publicly and privately, he seems willing to stretch this out to do it.

Call it an educated guess, but the Blazers might believe the Heat need Lillard more than Portland needs to move him. At least right away. It will be an uncomfortable training camp if Lillard is on the roster, for sure. But Miami lost its starting backcourt in free agency. Herro will return, but he can’t be thrilled to be coming back after spending the entire offseason hearing about where the Heat might move him. Jimmy Butler will be 34 when camp opens. There has to be urgency to get a deal done while Butler is still Butler.

My opinion continues to be that a deal between the Heat and Blazers gets done, in part because Lillard wants to go to Miami, in part because the Heat, as far as I can tell, are the only team seriously pursuing him. But this could stretch into August—or beyond.

Lillard seems intent on playing for the Heat next season, but the Trail Blazers don’t appear to be in a hurry to get him to Miami :: Soobum Im/USA TODAY Sports

Can you help us understand two things? What’s going on with the Jaylen Brown contract? Why do you think Celtics ownership or Brad Stevens won’t go far into the tax to get them everything they need for the title? Mike Muscala at the trade deadline last season was not enough then swapping out Marcus Smart for Kristaps Porziņģis, again, not enough. —@BobbyDlight14

Lot to unpack there …

We’re definitely reaching an eyebrow-raising moment with the Brown contract talks. Brown, as most know, is eligible for the supermax extension, which could be worth as much as $304 million over five seasons. The Celtics have been engaged with Brown’s reps for a few weeks now, and there are no indications—yet—that there are any hurdles that can’t be overcome. It’s worth noting that it isn’t as simple as Boston sliding Brown a $304 million contract. There’s plenty of room to negotiate (player options, incentives) that takes time, longer, perhaps, because of the new collective bargaining agreement.

Ultimately, I think a deal gets done. Brown wants the money, and the Celtics have no reason not to give it to him. Brown is a 26-year-old All-Star coming off his first All-NBA season. He’s exactly the kind of player you reward with a big contract.

I don’t think Boston is nickel-and-diming anything, either. I think they are doing whatever they can to avoid the second luxury tax apron, which every team but Phoenix has been doing.

That said, this team, as currently constructed, just isn’t as good as the team that finished last season. They sacrificed defense and versatility in Smart and Grant Williams for the offensive upside of Porziņģis, who was terrific last season for the going-nowhere Wizards while effectively playing for a new contract. And while Stevens has expressed confidence that Malcolm Brogdon’s forearm injury won’t keep him out of training camp, the oft-injured Brogdon is not the luxury he was a year ago. With Smart gone, a healthy Brogdon becomes a necessity.

Will the Suns win the title? —@David_Leon_Jr

Simple. Direct. I like it. And the answer is … maybe? There’s no denying Phoenix’s top-end talent. Kevin Durant is still a premier scorer. Devin Booker, too. And whatever you think of Bradley Beal’s contract, getting him for Chris Paul, some second-round draft capital and pick swaps is a win. Plus, I ran into plenty of people at Summer League who believe Frank Vogel is the right coach to keep DeAndre Ayton happy. At least for one season.

Here's the operative word in Phoenix: Sacrifice. Who is going to do it? Boston’s successful 2008 title run was fueled, in part, by Kevin Garnett’s willingness to sacrifice. In Miami, Chris Bosh made significant sacrifices to make the Heat work. Who will do it in Phoenix? Who will be the 20-plus point per game scorer that says he’s O.K. with scoring 16? I’m far more interested in that question than who is going to start at point guard.

Realistic expectations for the Thunder this season? —@Gpenndak

A play-in spot seems reasonable. There’s a lot of excitement around the Thunder, and understandably so. They have an MVP candidate (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), quality wings (Josh Giddey, Lu Dort) and a slew of high-end young talent. Throw a returning—and beefed up—Chet Holmgren into the mix, and there will be some outlandish predictions for where Oklahoma City finishes next season.

Couple of questions, though. How quickly does Holmgren develop? Holmgren looked good—and 13 pounds heavier—at Summer League, but there will be a learning curve. And I wonder how he’ll hold up physically at center, where he will likely play heavy minutes.

And will there be such a thing as too much depth? The Thunder had 10 players who averaged at least 18 minutes per game last season. Throw in Holmgren and Cason Wallace, whose defense could earn him minutes, and that could be a lot of juggling for coach Mark Daigneault.

The Thunder are heading in the right direction. It just might take them another season or two to get there.

Chris: Love the podcast. There are a lot of takes out there on the Lakers. What did you think of their offseason?

Walk a few feet inside the Thomas & Mack Center earlier this month, and you would find an exec who thinks the Lakers had a great offseason. Walk a few more, and you’d find one who thinks the media is giving them way too much credit.

Here’s the thing: I think the moves the Lakers made could have an energizing effect on LeBron James and Anthony Davis next season. Think about the vibe in L.A. at the start of last season. There was a new, inexperienced coach. There was largely the same stale roster that sputtered to the finish line the season before. There was a player (Russell Westbrook) whose style of play just didn’t fit. There was just bad energy, and it showed in L.A.’s sluggish start.

This year should begin with good energy. The Lakers re-signed the players they wanted (Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell) to team-friendly deals. They will have continuity—something GM Rob Pelinka emphasized at the end of the season—with a group that proved in the second half of last season that it could succeed.

My opinion: I think Gabe Vincent and Taurean Prince are an upgrade over Dennis Schröder and Lonnie Walker IV. But I think simply having a roster James and Davis believe they can win with right away is just as valuable.