NBA Central Division Predictions: Bucks, Cavaliers Poised to Be Top-Tier Teams

How many playoff teams will emerge from this division? Which offseason additions will have the biggest impact? SI has scouts’ takes and expert picks.

The Central Division enters the 2023–24 season with two top reinforced squads in the Bucks and Cavs. Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers could make a big leap forward. What else should you keep an eye on from these five teams?

Projected Order of Finish

1. Milwaukee Bucks (2)
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (3)
3. Indiana Pacers (8)
4. Chicago Bulls (9)
5. Detroit Pistons (12)

Conference seed in parentheses

Giannis will have an upgraded roster surrounding him :: Jonathan Hui/USA TODAY Sports

Scouts’ Anonymous Takes (as told to Chris Mannix)

Bucks

[Damian] Lillard's a f---ing hell of a player. He’s a major upgrade offensively. I don’t know how you defend that pick-and-roll. Are they better overall? I don’t know. They took a step back defensively. A big one. They lost some depth. That matters. But at the end of the day, a happy and motivated [Giannis] Antetokounmpo is probably most important. Looking at them offensively, they should be pretty f---ing good. And I love it from the standpoint that if you didn't do it, Antetokounmpo’s not happy.

Giannis is always going to give Milwaukee an edge. He’s the type of guy that, with a cast of role players around him, is always going to have a chance. The biggest question will be is [Khris] Middleton going to be back to the guy he was closer to two years ago, or is he fading and going to be closer to what we saw last season with all the injuries? They really lack a ton of athleticism. They have gone with these big rosters. All those bigs make them super slow. It felt like toward the end of last season they had just relied on Giannis’s greatness and an inconsistent East to get that No. 1 seed. That whole upset to the Heat … I don't know if anybody saw that coming like that, but all year long, teams were looking at the top of the standings thinking, “Give us the Bucks. We don’t want to play the Celtics.”

That lack of athleticism will be a problem in the playoffs. Because Boston’s pretty athletic just because of [Jayson] Tatum and [Jaylen] Brown. Philly’s a s--- show, so who knows there. They would probably match up poorly versus Cleveland. I think they match up poorly versus Boston. I also could see Milwaukee struggling more with the Detroits of the world. The Pacers are going to be a real thorn in that team’s side.

Giannis is still MVP-level great. His ability to score because of versatility offensively and pure force, and his interchangeability at positions, is what makes him so damn tough. One minute you have to guard him like he’s a five, the next minute they’ve got a five out there and all shooting, and he’s playing LeBron. He’s just a beast. The shooting, as much as you want to say, “Don’t guard him,” good luck. Don’t give him a head of steam; he’s going to murder that space.

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Pistons

The Pistons are young, but there is definitely reason for optimism. I think if the guards stay healthy, specifically Cade Cunningham, I actually think they have a real chance to be competing for a play-in spot, as long as they make it through that tough period to start, where the results aren’t exactly what they’re hoping for. Any time you have dynamic guards, they’re going to be hard to guard, and if they have enough shooting around them, I think they’re going to end up being a pain in the ass.

Cade and Jalen Duren give them versatility. They did a good job toward the end last year with James Wiseman. He didn't look horrible. They may be able to revive him. If they keep Bojan Bogdanović they will have enough shooting. I think they’ll be a pretty good, solid up-and-coming team that, if they get through adversity, can compete for the play-in.

Cade is good. He’s just not great. The biggest thing is, can he stay healthy? He’s got really good size, and his jump shot looked to be developing, and the physicality he brings to the game is good. If he’s healthy, this is a big jump year. The question will be with him, is his shooting going to be consistent enough? How is his speed and quickness? For me he was relying on brute force and power last season. But I didn’t know if there was another level to that, and I hadn’t been able to see because of the injuries.

Joe Harris gives them shooting, but I think he’ll need to have a real resurgence to help. In the playoffs and toward the end of last season, he looked physically shot from a body standpoint.

The Pistons’ young roster provides plenty of reasons for optimism :: David Reginek/USA TODAY Sports

Cavaliers

The Cavaliers totally addressed what they needed with shooting. Max Strus is a solid shooter. Georges Niang, if he can stay healthy, he’ll be huge for them in the regular season, and he’ll make them a top-tier Eastern Conference team, top three in my opinion, because he’ll just space the floor. The question with Georges is, how can he guard? In the playoffs, does his body break down? Can he still provide the level of shooting that he gave during the regular season? Two years in Philly, the first year it just disappeared. In the second year he was O.K. with it. Strus is a warrior. That's a game-changing pickup because of what he was able to do with Miami. Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell are super dynamic and a pretty good combo.

The biggest question for them will be figuring out the identity of their team as far as, are they going two bigs? Are they going one big? Do they rotate? Last year, they started [Jarrett] Allen and [Evan] Mobley. With Mobley, the entire league dared him to shoot threes and loaded up on those guards. Then they went small-ball sometimes with him, and he doesn’t have the size. He’s not a huge guy, so does his shooting improve? Does he take the next step as far as becoming one of these elite? I’d say a good comp for him, and he’s bigger than him, is Jaren Jackson Jr. He went from being a power forward that should be a center to all of a sudden to, this motherf---er is hitting threes. You don’t lose a step with him out on the perimeter. He’s just so quick that, as much as he might have a weird matchup for him, his length f---s it up. Does he make a step like that, or does he stay where he is at? Where he is at is, don’t guard him from the three, load up on their guards, and then defensively, even though he can block shots, he’s going to struggle with a strong guy.

Garland and Mitchell are really good. Garland’s electric, and then Mitchell, the shooting can be inconsistent, but he’s pretty damn good at getting to the basket.

Bulls

The Bulls are going to struggle. I think they’re at a real crossroads because the team they have is talented enough to be a fifth or sixth seed, but they could also fall off and miss the playoffs. Ayo Dosunmu had shown signs of potentially being a major breakthrough, but the thought was [Lonzo] Ball was going to be back. Without Ball, how much of a jump is that kid going to make? Coby White has proven that he’s just an electric, fast guy that sometimes can get hot from three and is probably better coming off your bench. He’s not a true point guard. They’ve just got a strange mix of guys. I don’t think they’re going to make a step. I think, in fact, they’re going to have to make a decision. Do they want to try to make a big move to get even better? Or do they tear it all down? Nikola Vučević is good, but he’s not a great defensive player. He’s not a dominant post player. That’s their team in a nutshell. They’re a little bit of everything.

I think it’s a big year for Patrick Williams. Does he make the next step? I don't know whether he’s capable of being the man. The problem is, I think they’ve got [DeMar] DeRozan and [Zach] LaVine, and they put him around them, and that’s where he's supposed to be, but just the power of that, it’s not that game-changing.

They are just not the same team without Lonzo Ball. It was just the size and pace he played with. He’s a point guard, he knows how to pass, he knows how to play. I think the biggest thing with him was, he set a pace, and an organization that they just haven’t had since, and it allowed those other guys to shine in their strengths. Now, you’ve got LaVine having to handle a little more, you’ve got too much of DeRozan just getting to the elbow, which sometimes is unguardable, but at the end of the day, he’s hitting twos, and the rest of the league is hitting twos and threes.

Pacers

I think that the Pacers are going to have a breakout year. Tyrese Haliburton has proven that he’s on the cusp of being elite. Buddy Hield seems to be very happy and is finally playing with a rhythm. He knows exactly who he is now. He’s a shooter you’ve got to chase around the floor. Bruce Brown, I like him with that group. I like his versatility and just what he brings from a mentality standpoint.

Bennedict Mathurin is a guy that’s on the watch to really make a huge step. As a rookie, there was a level to him that when he was right, you were scared. This kid is pretty f---ing good. He could make a jump, and he could really help them.

Myles Turner went from looking for trade destinations to seeming like he’s happy. He’s a rim protector; he can space the floor with the three. As much as they have tried to trade him over the years, he fits with that group.

The biggest thing for them is that they committed to playing at a pace and shooting threes last season. They bought into all the new-age analytics, but the pace that they play at is insane. That was probably the most daunting thing last year, to play them. It was controlled chaos. They have a chance to steal a lot of wins, because teams aren’t going to want to play like that every night, and if they do, they could be a little bit of a version of the Sacramento Kings. In the playoffs, it will be a little make or break with the three-ball. They stall out in the half court. But in the regular season they will be really tough.

I like Obi Toppin. He’s versatile, he’s huge, he’s long. The only thing he really lacks is consistent spacing from three, but he’s proved he can make a corner three. I think he has a real chance. Some guys in the Tom Thibodeau system—Jalen Brunson is just going to maximum output—and a lot of that’s to do with Jalen Brunson, but some of that is that Thibodeau is like, “Give a dog a bone and just ride him,” same with Julius Randle. Then you’ve got the guys like Toppin who, if they’re going to fit a role, he’s going to put them in a box. Toppin has a chance. Give him some space, maybe we see him develop a little more.

Bruce Brown proved he could hit some corner threes and all that stuff in the playoffs. In Indiana, he’ll be on a versatile team that just pushes the pace, attack you, and to me, he fits in that totally.

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The most interesting thing about the …

Bucks

Just in case first-time head coach Adrian Griffin thought he might be able to ease into his new job, Antetokounmpo said in a recent New York Times interview that he isn’t sure he will sign a long-term contract extension if he doesn’t see the opportunity for another title. So what did the Bucks do? They grabbed Lillard in a blockbuster deal that shook up the NBA offseason. The championship timeline has been significantly sped up in Milwaukee.

Cavaliers

The Cavs’ humbling first-round flameout against New York raised a question: Is the team that led the NBA in regular-season defensive efficiency built for playoff success? Even with big men Mobley and Allen, the club finished near the bottom of the league in rebounding. This year new wing Strus should bolster the starting unit, while Niang will aid a bench that averaged just 28.7 points per game, the lowest of any playoff team last season.

Haliburton leads a dynamic trio of players in Indiana :: Trevor Ruszkowski/USA TODAY Sports

Pacers

The Pacers were already one of the league’s most efficient transition teams last year, and now they will be able to play more up-tempo than ever before. Indiana, led by floor general Haliburton, added wing Brown from Denver and forward Toppin from New York to form a dynamic trio. According to Synergy Sports, those three individually were the NBA’s most efficient players in transition scenarios over the past two seasons.

Bulls

Since Ball hurt his knee in January 2022, Chicago simply hasn’t had enough offensive flow to make any kind of noise. Ball will miss this season, but Chicago did sign point guard Jevon Carter to a three-year, $19.5 million deal. At 6' 1" Carter doesn’t have Ball’s height or transition ability, but he is a good defender and a steady ballhandler, and last year with the Bucks he made 42.1% of his three-pointers. Carter gives the Bulls a chance to return to relevance.

Pistons

The Pistons gave Monty Williams, who led Phoenix to the 2021 Finals, a six-year, $78.5 million contract to help get Detroit on track after four seasons of 23 wins or fewer. Williams’s mandate will be to accelerate the development of a talented young group. It’s easy to look at guards Cunningham and Jaden Ivey as the Pistons’ future, but few clubs have a stable of big men under 25 more intriguing than Duren, Wiseman and Isaiah Stewart.