NBA Northwest Division Predictions: Nuggets in a Class By Themselves

There appears to be a large gap between Denver and its division foes, but the youth movement in OKC looks like it’s about to make some real strides.

Denver comes into the 2023-24 season as the favorite to come out of the West, while Oklahoma City and Minnesota hope to keep moving up the ladder with their young cores.

Projected Order of Finish

1. Denver Nuggets (1)
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (9)
3. Minnesota Timberwolves (11)
4. Utah Jazz (12)
5. Portland Trail Blazers (14)

Conference seed in parentheses

Jokić (15) and the Nuggets eye a repeat title this season :: Matt Krohn/USA TODAY Sports

Anonymous Scouts’ Takes (As told to Chris Mannix)

Timberwolves

The best option Minnesota had was to run it back. Improve around the margins and hope if they stay healthy they can make it work. They have a lot of money tied up at center in Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. Unless they are ready to trade Towns, they can’t do much. I don’t think Troy Brown or Shake Milton are big difference makers but adding to the back of the rotation was really all they could do.

I don't think Towns and Gobert are a great combination. I don't think it works great together. They’ll have to split their time a fair amount. Gobert is still excellent defensively. I think when D’Angelo Russell left, it looked like to me that Edwards figured out that Gobert was not going to be taking away any shots from him so he was good with playing with him, which helped. But they were still—what were they—10th in defense last year? The guy’s still pretty f------ impactful. He’s just not dominating as he has in previous years. Still f------ good, though.

Playing Gobert and Towns makes it harder for them defensively. But Gobert is still really, really impactful and he can still make them good. It’s just how do you find the matchup for Towns that you’d like? And some nights, that’s very doable and some nights, it seems like it’s not doable. To me, the question for them, we saw this a number of times, is when it gets down to the end of the game, how do they play those two guys together against the good teams and play good enough offense-defense to make it work?

Jaden McDaniels is pretty good to very good defensively, and offensively he’s gotten better shooting the basketball. And I think the way Chris Finch plays on offense, Finch basically is like ‘do what you can do offensively.’ So if you’re a cutter, cut. If you’re a shooter, shoot. And McDaniels, if you watch it, he is cutting all the f------ time and he’s good at it. I think the way they play on offense, not necessarily with who’s in the game, but the way that Finch coaches offense I think is helpful to him and his development.

Nuggets

I think Bruce Brown is a fairly significant loss for Denver. I think he’s pretty damn good and really gave them a boost off the bench. Jeff Green was a serviceable player but I don’t know how big of a loss it is. Maybe you had Jeff the veteran, but Zeke Nnaji is a better athlete, he’s a better shooter; bigger, he is stronger—if he’s a decent to good player then I don’t see that as being as big a loss. And I would imagine they played Jeff over him by virtue of that, just, "We would rather play a veteran than a young guy." Though now, I would imagine they can’t avoid that.

Christian Braun is an adequate replacement for Brown most nights. It’s just when you need an A-level defender, Bruce is that. I don’t know if Christian can be that and I certainly don't know if Peyton Watson can be that after sitting and watching. But Braun had a very good rookie year and he improved as the year went on. Any skepticism is about him being unproven. Can he do it versus the guy in Bruce Brown who’s shown he can do it? You know what I mean? But I like Braun. He’s getting better.

[Nikola] Jokić will make it a smooth transition to some of these young guys. He sets a hierarchy there and you know how you’re going to play. You know if you run around, he’s going to f------ deliver the ball and get it to you and make sure that you are seeing it when you’re supposed to see it.

I think [Jamal] Murray is just going to keep getting better. I thought his play later in the year compared to early in the year was noticeable how much more confident he was moving. Another offseason, he’s going to come in next year really strong.

Trail Blazers

I’m really high on Scoot Henderson in Portland. He has all the requisite qualities to be a franchise carrying star. He’s pretty f------ explosive. He’s got all those innate characteristics you need. The way he plays looks like a guy that people will like playing with. He can get where he wants with the ball. He’s direct with how he tries to attack on offense. He can figure out what he is trying to do and then go f------ do it. He’s not taking a bunch of dribbles trying to figure it out. He’s specific and I think he’s got a physical nature to his game and that he’ll end up being probably a pretty good defender too if he wants to be.

Shaedon Sharpe is a great athlete. He’s got a ways to go, though. How much more than an athlete is he, I’m not sure. The shooting piece, we’ll see where that gets to. That’s the missing piece. But he has a chance to be a nice player.

Jerami Grant is on one of the all-time worst contracts. Good player but he didn’t help them win last season. He doesn’t defend nearly as well as people think he does and it’s not like he’s going to improve. Giving him that contract was bizarre.

I think Anfernee Simons can be a nice efficient scorer. I don’t know how much he’s going to help you win games. I think he can be a nice efficient scorer for you and he can impact your team in a positive way but I just don’t see the leadership qualities. I don’t see anything that’s going to make me think he’s anything more than a guy who could put up some good numbers and help you win a few games. I don’t see him being the guy carrying your team. And the other thing too that’s going to be interesting with him positionally is he is a small scorer next to Henderson, which is the same as he was next to [Damian] Lillard. Where does that get you?

SGA leads a young Thunder squad looking to keep climbing up the ladder in the Western Conference :: Alonzo Adams/USA TODAY Sports

Thunder

I thought Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continued to grow as a player. He was super, super efficient. I think the efficiency with which he scores the ball, the way he gets to the free-throw line is very, very high level. He looks like a guy who plays a ton of one-on-one, just post-practice. Similar to how Jalen Brunson is, because he is super, super clever in that free-throw-line-to-restricted area, that area between those two. He’s very clever. The next thing to me will be how good of a passer is he? Because usually the guys that are good “number ones,” they all add that element of being able to pass when they get into traffic and stuff like that. He didn’t see a ton of drop coverages last year but I think you’ll see more as they go because they put a fair amount of lineups out there that didn’t shoot the ball exceedingly well.

I would think that they will be pretty competitive this year. They have got quite a bit of young talent and they finished as the 10th seed in the West sneaking in because other teams let the bottom fall out. Beyond that, I don’t know how good they are or not. Chet Holmgren looked like he can at least move, which is nice. I like Chet but I didn’t see him do anything in summer league that made me go ‘holy Christ, this kid’s here.’ But he definitely moved around and competed. I know he is tough. Going back to when he was in high school, he was f------ really tough. We’ll see how he fits.

The other question to me will be how do they divvy up the minutes? Last year they could play 14 guys in the first half of the game and nobody cared. If you’ve got some guys that all want minutes and suddenly they start to get squeezed a little bit, what happens then would be a question I have. They really were playing like the NBA version of f------ pickup basketball. Throw these guys out there, called zero plays just like driving a kick and defensively say, ‘F--- it, who cares?’ Play hard, that’s all we really give a s--- about. And now when you have to add an element of execution to it and an element of “what about my f------ minutes?” It’ll be interesting to see if anything shakes out differently.

I like Jalen Williams a lot. I think he’s got a chance to be a very nice player and he did a very nice job last year in a lot of ways and physically looked pretty impactful. I’m not a Aleksej Pokuševski guy. Poku, you could maybe argue, was the worst rotation player of any player that played in a rotation regularly. He struggled. That may be a little excessive, but he struggled. I didn’t think he was great. I would imagine they’re going to try to have Chet be a center for them. Physically, it’ll be interesting to see how he holds up there. Cason Wallace looked OK at Summer League. He looks like he’ll be able to shoot the ball pretty well, though he’s small.

Jazz

It looks like Utah has a pretty good feel for who Lauri Markkanen is and I think that’s helped him be successful. It’s not like the Chicago, “we're going to make you the stretch four, stretch five guy,” and it’s not really what you do. Looked like they evaluated him correctly. More as just a, “don’t worry about being a shooter” but be a great basketball player. I thought that’s what he did in Cleveland before he got traded. It wasn’t like an emphasis on “you have to pick and pop and stretch the floor.” You can cut. You can drive the ball. You can be aggressive in ways that don’t just have to do with facing up and shooting. Which I thought was really good for him. And I think defensively, he’s shown himself to be pretty good on the perimeter, so, “Hey, we’re going to play you a little bit more as a primary defending three as opposed to guard their fives and switch onto the ball or stuff like that.” I feel like they did a good job of utilizing his skillset.

Walker Kessler is good at the rim. He’s big. He got a chance to be a pretty good two-way player. To get rid of Gobert and replace Gobert with him I would say was very positive for those guys. To get rid of that big contract and then have a guy who shows signs of being pretty damn impactful as your rookie, I would say it was pretty nice.

John Collins was a very Danny Ainge move. Like, “We can get this guy for f------ nothing? All right, yeah, we’ll do that.” How well it fits, I don’t know. Will Hardy wants to have a couple big guys out there, so I would imagine this goes in line with that. Beyond that, I’m not really sure how that plays out for him. I’m not a big Collins guy personally. He seems to struggle to remember plays and wants to be featured. Once a game, he’ll make a play defensively that looks really athletic but I wouldn’t say he plays great defense. I’ve never seen him play where I go, “Oh shit, this dude can really guard.” And he feels more like a five than a four to me on offense a fair amount of the time. Not quite sure why he couldn’t make a perimeter shot last year, but if he can’t really shoot and he is not a very good defender, I’m not really sure what that does for you.

They have a big frontcourt now but if you can follow the Cleveland model of like, “Hey we’re going to play these f------ big guys and here’s how we’re going to do it,” then at least defensively, I think you can be pretty damn impactful. Offensively, I’m not sure exactly what that does for you. But I think defensively, I think that’s shown itself to be pretty impactful. When you throw multiple big guys out there, you’re going to have a chance to be pretty successful. They’re an interesting team to me because they had “success” last year, but they didn’t ultimately have a great year. This year there are going to be bigger expectations.

The most interesting thing about the …

Nuggets

Denver’s bench played a key role during last year’s title run. Brown provided two-way steadiness at both guard spots, while Green was essential to their small-ball frontcourt. Both players left in free agency, and now the Nuggets will turn to 2022 first-round picks Braun, who will take on more ballhandling duties, and Watson, whose athleticism and scoring potential on the wing could bring a new dimension to Denver’s second unit.

Markkanen will try to build off of a breakout 2022-23 season :: Chris Nicoll/USA TODAY Sports

Jazz

After acquiring the Hawks forward and ending his long stay on the trading block, Utah is hoping for a Collins revival. Last year the Jazz benefited from Markkanen’s career reset as he won Most Improved Player in his first season in Utah. If seven-year veteran Collins, coming off his lowest scoring average (13.1) since his rookie year while playing for an Atlanta team in upheaval, can prosper in steadier surroundings, the Jazz could be pesky.

Thunder

All eyes will be on Holmgren, the No. 2 pick of the 2022 draft who missed last year with a Lisfranc foot injury. He rejoins a team that already has an exciting collection of young talent. Gilgeous-Alexander finished fourth in scoring last season, Williams (not to be confused with teammate Jaylin Williams) made first-team All-Rookie, and Josh Giddey filled the stat sheet admirably. Holmgren has a chance to throw gas on a crackling fire.

Timberwolves

The first season of the Towns–Gobert partnership was lackluster. Due to injury the big men played only 27 regular-season games together, with a meager 0.6 net rating. Not quite a disaster, but not exactly what Minnesota hoped for when it traded everything except Paisley Park for Gobert. If the duo—who had a negative net rating against the Nuggets in the playoffs—continues to be middling, that could open the door for a Towns trade.

Blazers

Simons, Sharpe and No. 3 pick Henderson all figure to play major minutes for Portland this season, creating a logjam of backcourt talent as the team charts its course for the next era of Blazers basketball. Keeping all three players on the roster for the rest of the decade might prove to be difficult, so we could be watching a battle between Simons and Sharpe to see who will be Henderson’s long-term running mate.