NBA Southwest Division Predictions: Marcus Smart Could Be the Grizzlies’ Missing Piece

Can the Grizzlies take a third straight division title? Or will the Mavericks’ All-Star pairing swoop in? Plus, welcome to the league, Victor Wembanyama.

The young Grizzlies will enter the 2023–24 season with Ja Morant on suspension but with Marcus Smart at the helm. An already defensively sound team in Memphis gets even scarier. Meanwhile, Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving hope to make use of a full season together and return to the playoffs. But the Pelicans are the team to watch in the Southwest Division, especially if they can stay healthy and finally break through to make some serious noise in the West.

And all of this is in addition to the arrival of a generational talent in San Antonio as Victor Wembanyama begins his rookie season with the Spurs.

Projected order of finish

1. Memphis Grizzlies (7)
2. Dallas Mavericks (8)
3. New Orleans Pelicans (10)
4. Houston Rockets (13)
5. San Antonio Spurs (15)

Conference seed in parentheses

The Grizzlies, which had the third-best defense in the league last season, added the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Smart in the offseason.  :: Petre Thomas/USA TODAY Sports

Anonymous scouts’ takes (as told to Chris Mannix)

Mavericks

I thought Irving complimented Dončić the way they hoped he would. Luka is a LeBron-type offensive player, and Kyrie is good at playing off the ball and has been good playing off of a ball-dominant player before. But they have to play faster. The thing with those Cleveland teams, they were amazing in transition. If they’re not going to be amazing in transition, that’s going to make it harder to compliment each other. If they don’t play fast, I think Luka will eventually say, “Him or me.”

They are going to have to outscore people. You can’t come up with a strategy that can compensate for two guys in Luka and Kyrie who really aren’t defenders. It’s hard for me to see it working with what looks like a lack of interest in defense and not being a high-transition team. That Cleveland stuff worked because of how many possessions they got in transition. If LeBron was just walking the ball up the court every time and Kyrie was walking the ball up the court every time, they would have struggled. Dallas won’t be a good defensive team so they have to up the possessions and try to outscore people. All their eggs are in Luka and Kyrie’s basket.

Maxi Kleber is arguably the most underrated defender in the league. Individually and collectively, he is just a very well-respected defensive player. I think Grant Williams will do well there. He’s a versatile defender who can make corner threes. Dwight Powell is really good with Luka. They have good pieces. Tim Hardaway’s a good player.

Grizzlies

I think Smart will do well in Memphis. I think he probably starts at the point with Ja [Morant] out, and when Ja comes back they’d probably move him to the three. And they’re a very good team. Losing Tyus Jones hurts, but Smart should make up for it. Luke Kennard is one of the best shooters in the league right now. I think they’re going to have a very good year. I think they will bounce back from the disappointing finish to last season. Taylor Jenkins is a great coach, they have a history of winning games and I think Marcus will really help them.

Marcus replaces what they lost in Brooks. He is one of the best defenders in the league and as good as an individual defender as he is he’s a better team defender. So Smart on the perimeter with Jaren Jackson Jr. could make this team really hard to score on. And I think some people are Brooks fans, and I respect his confidence, but I don’t know anyone that would choose Brooks over Smart if they’re trying to win a game. Smart will tear your arm off to win a game.

Desmond Bane is that team’s Khris Middleton. He’s just a really smart, great shooting wing who is like, Hey, I’m going to be an efficient perimeter player that cares about defense, and I’m not going to lose confidence. I’ll perform in big moments. He’s just one of those guys. Can he be an All-Star? Maybe. But he’s a pro’s pro.

Pelicans

Don’t sleep on New Orleans. When Zion was healthy, they were very, very good. He’s unstoppable. They have really good role players. They have guys who care about defense. They have size for positions. Ingram—what’s the difference between Ingram and Jayson Tatum besides which team drafted them?

The Ingram from last year is the same Ingram I’ve seen, honestly, since his last year with the Lakers. His last year with the Lakers, he was getting to his spots and he was scoring. Ingram cares about defense. The only real difference is Tatum takes a lot more threes, and so Tatum’s effective field goal percentage is a little better. If Ingram had been drafted by the Celtics in Tatum’s spot, he would be first- or second-team All-NBA, just like Tatum was. I think he’s that good. And Ingram’s a willing passer.

Zion is a freak. He is the hardest guy in the league to game-plan for. His combination of size and explosiveness—he’s so quick. He’s like if Charles Barkley was a split second faster than he was—and he and Jordan were the two best athletes of their era. Zion is that but even quicker.

McCollum is not the ideal playmaker for that group but those other guys are willing passers. CJ is efficient. He needs to compliment Ingram and Zion, and I think he’s old enough, and he’s made enough money—I think he’ll be willing to do it.

Trey Murphy III is a great shooter. He’s long and continues to get better. Herb Jones is a big-time defender who can become a better shooter. They are both unbelievably great role players with potential to be more. Both those guys should aspire to be Mikal Bridges and make the same jumps that Bridges has done over the last few years. And I think that’s realistic for both of them.

Rockets

I think for Green, having good veterans around you to learn from is really important, and he hasn’t had that yet. So from the outside I’m reserving judgment until he’s in a better environment and is able to learn what the good NBA is about. I feel pretty confident that he will. Ime Udoka will help educate him about that. So I think he’ll be good.

That said, I don’t love the Fred VanVleet fit with Green. I think it’s hard to learn from someone you feel like you’re in competition with. It’s easier to learn from a veteran who is there to play behind you or someone who doesn’t play your position. Someone like an Andre Iguodala or a Shaun Livingston. My fear is Green will look at VanVleet as competition. Maybe they’ll build a good friendship. I don’t know. We’ll have to see.

Jabari Smith seems like a really nice kid who’s talented. He’s going to be pretty good. It’ll be interesting to see how determined he is. How great he wants to be. He can be as good as he wants to be. He showed that in Summer League, too. He’s got all the tools. Have to see if he has the mental toughness.

Spurs

San Antonio has a bunch of good players. Devin Vassell’s a good player. Keldon Johnson’s a good player. Jeremy Sochan is a good player. I don’t think he’s the second coming of Dennis Rodman, but he’s good. You have to be able to score. You have to be able to make shots. But I think he’s fine. I’m sure their team will look a lot different over the next couple of years. We know there is really only one keeper.

I imagine the whole league feels bad for Zach Collins because of how many injuries he’s had. Because when he plays, he’s somebody who I think everyone has respect for his talent and his competitiveness. So it’s just too bad that he hasn’t been able to get through the injury bug thing. If he can stay healthy he has a chance to remind everyone of how much potential he showed in Portland.

The Spurs have to figure out what Victor Wembanyama’s NBA game is going to be. Because there isn’t a real comparison. One thing I think everyone had to be impressed with was how much he rebounded in Summer League. If you’re just grabbing every other rebound, he’ll figure out the other stuff. If you’re limiting teams to one shot every time down and you’re contesting, nobody wants to come anywhere near the rim against you. I think he’ll figure out what he can do offensively to be successful. But his awareness of the basketball, and just how many plays he was involved in in Summer League, I thought was pretty impressive.

The most interesting thing about the …

Grizzlies

Though they weren’t traded for each other, the Grizzlies effectively swapped Dillon Brooks for Smart this summer. Brooks tended to hurt Memphis with his erratic shooting and overaggressive defense. Though Smart plays with a similarly high motor and his own share of recklessness, the former Celtic also has veteran savvy and brings a history of postseason success to a team that has won just one playoff series in the past eight years. But Smart will now have to do all of this without Steven Adams, who was ruled out with a season-ending injury before the season even began.

Mavericks

This is the first full season of the Irving-Dončić experiment, and the Mavs desperately need it to succeed. The duo had a ho-hum 4.2 net rating when they were on the floor together after last year’s trade-deadline pickup, thanks largely to uninspiring defense, but Dallas gave Irving a three-year, $120 million contract. Meanwhile, the guard the Mavs let get away, Jalen Brunson, could be a perennial All-Star in New York—and on a cheaper deal.

Pelicans

The Pelicans are a youngish team that is also ready to win now. CJ McCollum is 32 and a veteran of many playoff battles. Brandon Ingram, 26, is entering his prime. But what really matters is whether Zion Williamson is healthy. The McCollum-Ingram-Williamson trio had a robust 16.5 net rating in a scant 172 minutes together last season. If those three are regularly available for coach Willie Green, the Pelicans could make some noise in the West.

Rockets

The Rockets spent big in the summer, most notably bringing in Raptors point guard Fred VanVleet on a max deal. After tanking in recent years, Houston appears to be shifting gears. Whether it can win will depend on the young core as much as the new blood—especially Jalen Green. The third-year guard has proved he can score, but not always efficiently. That could change now that he will play more off the ball alongside pick-and-roll maestro VanVleet.

Spurs

The Spurs’ season will be entirely about the Victor Wembanyama Experience. A 7'4" marvel with the skills of a guard, he is the most intriguing prospect since LeBron James. Wemby joins a team that has some frisky players but isn’t exactly teeming with young talent like, say, the Thunder are. So the expectations will fall entirely on Wembanyama’s shoulders. He’s handled the attention so far, but the scrutiny will increase when the games start.