The Warriors’ Dynasty Appears to Be Entering Its Final Days

Draymond Green suspended indefinitely. A bad starting lineup wasting another amazing year from Steph Curry. Klay Thompson’s decline. Things are not going well for Golden State.

Is it over? This is the question NBA-types are asking these days, as Klay Thompson deteriorates, Andrew Wiggins crumbles and Draymond Green heads into league-mandated exile. After nine years, five 57-plus win seasons and four championships, has the Warriors’ dynasty reached its inevitable end?

Mike Dunleavy Jr. doesn’t think so. Hours after the NBA suspended Green indefinitely, Golden State’s top executive addressed reporters. He said he agreed with the NBA’s decision. “We think it’s the right solution right now,” Dunleavy said, adding that all parties involved—including Green—were in a “good place.” He declared he was “optimistic” this latest punishment would lead to substantive changes.

“I think this is something that a lot of people may see as a problem,” Dunleavy said. “But we’re looking to turn it into a positive. It’s at a point in his career and his life where we want to get some things straightened out, and maybe sometimes you need a jolt like that.”

Is it over? Steve Kerr isn’t ready to admit it. After Green was ejected from his third game this season, Kerr said he still believes in this roster. “I still see a chance for this team to be really good,” Kerr said. Like Dunleavy, Kerr rubber-stamped the suspension, saying it will give Green the chance to address his issues.

Curry is averaging 28.6 points per game amid Golden State’s sub-.500 season :: Jessica Alcheh/USA TODAY Sports

“This is about his life,” Kerr said. “This is about someone who I believe in, someone who I have known for a decade, who I love for his loyalty, his commitment, his passion, his love for his teammates, his friends, his family. Trying to help that guy. The one who grabbed Rudy [Gobert] and choked Rudy, the one who took a wild flail at Jusuf [Nurkić], the one who punched Jordan [Poole] last year, that’s the guy who has to change. He knows that.”

Fine. Kerr’s right. This isn’t about cursing at a referee or drop-kicking a ball into the stands. In a little more than a year Green has cold-cocked a teammate, chest-stomped an opponent and landed a right hand hard enough to send a 6'11", 290-pound opponent to the floor. Kevin Durant, Green’s former teammate, called the Nurkić incident “insane,” adding, “I hope Draymond gets the help he needs.”

But Green is a problem for Golden State. He’s not the problem. The problem is that the Warriors’ starting lineup, once historically good, has been shockingly bad. The problem is that the defense, first or second in efficiency in three of Golden State’s four championship seasons, ranks in the back half of the NBA this time around. The problem is that in recent years the Warriors had an opportunity to rebuild the roster with high draft picks and blew it.

Seriously—how often does a team have three lottery picks mid-dynasty? The Warriors did. They had a chance to draft LaMelo Ball and took James Wiseman. Franz Wagner was on the board when they drafted Jonathan Kuminga. Instead of Alperen Şengün anchoring a wafer-thin frontcourt, Golden State has Moses Moody. Now the jury is still out on Kuminga and Moody, certainly. But the Warriors succeeded because they hit on Thompson, Green and Stephen Curry. They are failing in large part because Wiseman, Kuminga and Moody are either not ready or not good.

The argument that it isn’t over is simple. We’re a quarter of the way through the season. Curry is having an MVP-caliber year. Thompson has struggled, but there are still nights—like, say, Thursday, when Thompson knocked down eight three-pointers in a loss to the Clippers—when he looks like his old self. And Green, eventually, will be back.

“Two things I feel are certain,” said Dunleavy. “Steph’s still elite, and we’ve got great depth. And from there I think we’ve kicked some games away. … I think we’re right there, but at some point our record is going to have to change.”

But what if it doesn’t? A midseason trade isn’t likely. The buyout market rarely yields anything of real value. On Thursday, Dunleavy admitted the next 15 to 20 games would be revealing. If the team can’t push past .500, Dunleavy said the front office would reevaluate. What if the Warriors end the season at the bottom of the playoff bracket—or worse?

In 2013, Boston was in a similar situation. The Celtics didn’t have the success of Golden State. But they won a championship in ’08, looked in line to win another before Kevin Garnett got hurt in ’09 and blew a 13-point lead in Game 7 against the Lakers in ’10. By ’13, it was clear Boston’s title window had closed. The trades Danny Ainge made then—Garnett, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo—supplied the Celtics with the draft capital to build the team they are today.

Would Dunleavy make a similar decision? Would team governor Joe Lacob, who is paying $400 million for this roster this season, pressure him to? Thompson can walk at the end of the season. The Warriors—who reportedly were willing to offer him only a two-year deal in the $50 million-ish range before the season—may be fine with it. Then there’s Curry. As loyal as he is to the franchise that drafted him, if this team goes into a rebuild—and it will go into a rebuild—Curry, at 35, may not want to stick around.

On Thursday the story continued to be Green, his suspension and if things will be different when he returns. Curry said he was “super confident” in Green’s ability to avoid further trouble. “I think the tone has changed from any other suspension,” Curry said. Thompson said that “knowing [Green] doesn’t want to be a detriment to the team” made him believe Green will bounce back.

“I’m confident that he can come out on a better side,” Kerr said. “I know him. He’s an incredible human being. He’s a very complex human being. In a lot of ways he’s incredibly loyal and passionate and competitive, and sometimes that same thing hurts him.”

Added Curry, “He can’t do what he’s been doing. He knows that. We know that. Everybody knows that. What that means to change, I think that’s the search for the answer. That’s the journey that we’re on.”

For now. But this Warriors dynasty is on the precipice. The 2022 title feels like a lifetime ago. Green’s return, whenever that is, won’t solve Golden State’s problems. Maybe nothing will. Is it over? We’ll find out soon.